Deciding What to Push WIth When Short Stack

[parappa]

PP 5+1. 6-handed. I'm short stack with 700 chips. Blinds are 150/300. I'm UTG with Q9o. Do I push? More importantly, how do I think about these kinds of decisions?

Q9 is a top 40% hand. Let's say I'm a dominated 2:1 dog to whatever calls. So 33% of the time I get to 1500 and 67% I bust out.

If I wait until the BB, my hand could be better, will (mildly) probably be worse.

If I fold the blinds and get aces in the next orbit, I'm a 3:1 fav (let's say) to double back up to 800 with the blinds coming again.

It seems to me that the lower win % on the immediate push (or a push on the bb with whatever comes) is still worth more than a push with less with a better hand 6-handed with stacks appx. 2000, 2000, 1500, 1000, 750, 750.

Any help welcome. I'd really just like to have some parameters for thinking about these kinds of decisions.

[fnord_too]

Tough spot. If the table is timid, I push here. If I think I'm getting more than 1 caller, I probably fold.

[Mr. D]

It depends on how many people you are stealing from. You DON'T want to get called. I'd only do this from the small blind if it were folded to me. Maybe from the button if both the blinds seem to fold easily to a preflop raise.

[fnord_too]

Oh, another thing about your BB next hand (if you don't push), you may get the option of a free flop in the BB. If so, I like to push my decent hands and check push any flop the other hands. Obviously this is a one opponent type tactic, though some times you can pull it off against two (but with two the pot is laying at least 3.33 to one on a call.)

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
PP 5+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, don't play 5+1 tournaments. The fee is just too high. Play 10+1s or go to Poker Stars or Ultimate Bet for 5+.50 SnGs

[kyro]

Gotta push, IMO. It's not a great hand, but if you get crap next two hands, you have very little money left to even double up with. Push, hope you steal the blinds, and use the winnings to pay your blinds if you get crap.

[Gramps]

It's not just the quality of your hand, it's the chance you have of (if called) being HU, vs. being against two or more players. If you fold your UTG hand, and get total, complete crap in the BB...now you're down to 400, and may see the flop on your all-in hand against multiple opponents (which may make you a bigger dog with a better hand than Q9). That's a scenario you want to avoid.

Also, assuming you can get it heads up as UTG or BB, the hand you're likely to be HU against if you push UTG is going to, on average, be worse than when you're in the BB. If someone has a premium hand in either situation...well ...you're just out of luck. But, when you push your Q9 UTG, there's a good shot of folding out some better hands behind you (Ax, KJ, etc.), as 2.5 times the BB is a pretty steep price to call, with players behind still to act. Those same players may bring it in for a raise when you're in the BB, since they get to act first in that scenario.

If you push Q9 UTG and it does get folded around to the BB, he's getting some mighty fine pot odds (close to 3:1) to call you - and he's likely to do it with a lot of hands you're a favorite against. And...if the BB has total crap, you may win 450 chips uncontested. If he calls and you win, you're off of life support and will still have 1100 in chips if you just pay your blinds the next two hands.

If you wait til the next hand in the BB, if you get HU, on average that hand you're up against will be better (since any player with a good hand will probably bring it in for a raise). So...even if you pick up a better hand in the BB than Q9, you may still be in a worse spot.

Thus...I say push your Q9. 2.5 times the BB as UTG, that's just not a very good spot to be in.

[stupidsucker]

IMO this is a push no question at all. You are UTG, you should have pushed with worse in a better position (but we dont always get the chance) The very next hand you are auto crippled with being the BB, and you have to HOPE you get a PREMIUM hand. If you push UTG then you have a decent chance it will get folded around and you take down the blinds enough to live through them. You cant stop here though. You have to get ready to push a lot.

Keep in mind that when you are at this spot, you are already an underdog. You cant expect to make the right plays and just glide ITM. Now you need to play right and a little luck is needed too.

[ddubois]

I'm been wondering about this topic. I hate when I get short-stacked and am forced to start pushing with things like A6o or A2s. It seems to be the people who call almost always have a dominating pair or a better ace. For this reason, I'm wondering if I'm actually better off pushing any two face cards than ace-rag? I mean, I don't want AT to call me when I push KJ, but it's better than the A2s vs AT matchup (2:3 compared to 1:2).

[aesic]

If I am shortstacked and I get Ax shorthanded, I'm almost always pushing when I'm first in, and often even pushing if I'm 2nd in depending on my read on the first player.

However, I have also been thinking about the value of 2 face cards when short handed. How good are KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, when shorthanded in all situations (big stack, avg, and small). Particulary, the QJ and QT situation. I know there is a website that has the %'s for pocket cards heads-up against another random hand. Could someone supply a link? Also, you don't expect to be called by "random" cards if your raising or all-in. What is the value compared to the possible calling hands. Obviously a lot depends on reads, but I'm curious about the value of these cards when shorthanded and at different stack sizes.

-aesic