Agony On the Money Bubble

[GoSox]

I have been reliving this for six hours now so opinions are appreciated.

60 entrants and 30 rebuys = about 90k chips total. Pays top 5 and there are six of us left, I am #4 in chips with about 11k. Blinds are 3200/1600 but go to 6400/3200 on the next hand so basically everyone but the two chip leaders is gonna bust in the next two rounds unless they catch a hand. I am next to post the blinds and I'll be left with 1k after that.

I have been at the same seat all night so everyone knows my play, and I am a rock. I slowplayed AA early and took down a monster pot. I've stayed tight and everyone has been avoiding me, and I'm just starting to use that image now.

#6 in chips is all-in posting the small blind, so he could have any random hand. #5 in chips just posted the big blind and has about 3k left. I am under the gun and get 88. Strong cards six-handed and I raise to 6400 to try and get the SB headsup. My logic: 6400 puts everyone but the chip leaders and me all-in so it's unlikely to get a caller from the smaller stacks. I didn't put myself allin though because I didn't want to tempt one of the chipleaders to try and take out two of us in one lucky hand.

Everyone folds to the BB, and he starts thinking. He asks for a rules clarification on who gets the payout if they both exit at once (sweet !). He finally calls commenting on how I probably have kings or queens. I've been playing with him all night and put him on AK, AQ, AJ.

Flop is 224 (suits dont matter). He checks, and I check. I figure with six outs twice he'll probably call here. Turn is a 5 and he checks. I go all in and he calls with JJ. Bad, but I figure not awful since we both have over pairs and as long as one holds up #6 is out and I'll get fifth at least.

SB turns over his "random" hand A3 for the straight. Long drive home.

Thoughts ??

[37offsuit]

Well yeah. You're at the point in the tournament where it's just a matter of luck as to who is going to finish where. You have two options, either fold and hope one of the two players who will be forced all in before you go broke when the blinds get back to you, or play your pocket 8's. Maybe you get lucky and your BB is folded to you, but that only gives you a little breathing room if you then fold your small blind.

[37offsuit]

Something struck me so I came back and reread the post. I was thinking maybe you can check this down considering that even if he hits he'll likely take out the small blind and put you in the money.

After rereading the post though, something else struck me. The BB posts T3200 and has about T3000 left. You raise to T6400...this should put the BB all in if he calls.

Assuming maybe he had a few more chips and your estimation was off, leaving him very short stacked and then your turn bet was to push him off if he wanted to try to fold, get lucky on the SB and then maybe make the money.

I take it the BB or the SB was unkind to your now very, very small stack.

[GoSox]

I only had about a third of the BB to post, got 64s against one caller. He showed 33, which is about the best I could hope for, but my luck was gone and shortly thereafter so was I.