ps 11 + rebuys hand question

[Ronin29]

i've lurked in the shadows for a bit, but this is my first post..

ps tourney last night, 880 entrants, down to 255 and 81 make $$. i have 9k in chips, avg is 16k, blinds are at 300/600 with i belive $50 ante. i am one off the button with AhKh.. two limpers from middle position to me, so i go all-in looking to pickup the 2100 in there.. the SB with 14k re-raises all-in, the two limpers fold. the SB flips over 99. obviously the 99 held up and i'm history.

my take is this, but i'm not sure if i'm all wet. my first take is that the SB put me on a steal and was all wrong. of course i didnt really want a caller, but i wasnt on a steal either if that makes sense. anyway, it is his re-raising to isolate my shorter stack all-in which tells me he see's me stealing... so in that case he guessed wrong but it worked out for him.

my other take is that he made a terrible play (but this is where i need opinions).. i had played a tight game, raising with solid hands, and had not stolen blinds in many orbits (because i was getting decent hands).. i think his calling of my all-in (forget about the re-raise) was the wrong move. he should have suspected that i would not have gone allin without a nice hand, i wasnt near being blinded off or anything. with his 99 he is obviously dominated by 10's on up and a slight favorite over AK/KQ.. i could understand if i limped and he then went all-in... then i would have to decide if i want to engage in a coin-flip. but why call an all-in there?

does my analysis make any sense? or did he actually play the hand well??

thanks for any opinions,
Ronin29

[Thebram]

[ QUOTE ]
SB put me on a steal and was all wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You bet 9k into a 2k pot with a drawing hand, and you don't consider that a steal?

I'm somewhat new to MTT, so maybe my definition of a steal is a little off, but he had a better hand than you (albeit just slightly) so if he folded to your bet, I would consider that a steal.

As for his call with 99, at that stage of the tournament, orbits cost 1400, maybe he saw this as his best chance to double up while it would still make a difference.

If put in either of your place or SBs place, I can see myself playing exactly the same way. You just lost the coin flip this time.

[Edge34]

Hey Ronin,

Welcome to the forums, officially, first. As for your hand, there are a few ways to look at it. You're right, probably most of us won't be calling an all-in for over half our stack with 99, but then, some people will, and your opponent was fortunate to have his hand hold up. Of course, all the "he SHOULD know I've got a nice hand" stuff is virtually irrelevant - yes, he should. No, he doesn't, or if he does, he doesn't care.

One possibility I see here is not necessarily committing all your chips PF here, but making, say, a 3 or 4xBB raise and working with the flop. If, as you say, you weren't worried about being blinded off, you could save chips when you whiff. This way, a hand like 99 will also potentially lay down with overcards out, and 1 in 3 times you'll hit at least one of your pairs. Its just too bad this wasn't one of those times, with the SB's semi-questionable play (since he did get in with slightly the best of it).

-Edge

[jwg152]

I agree with your analysis. He made a dumb call. I know this type of player: he doesn't quite understand the math. He knows that there are only 5 hands that better his holding- and he guessed correctly that you didn't hold one of these. However, this player often fails to realize that even rag holdings like KJ,Q10, etc are a coin flip with his 99.

[fnurt]

I think you made a nice move. One thing that happens in the wonderful world of online play is that people call with 99 assuming you have overcards, people call with KQ assuming you have a lower pair. In order to succeed in the 800-person monstrosity that is the rebuy tourney, you probably have to win a couple of these hands, because people will make those calls.

Just keep on playing your game. You'll love the dead money when you try this play with JJ and someone calls with 99, or when you try it with AKs and someone calls with KQ.

[DOTTT]

The truth is I think both of you played this wrong, but if I had to choose the sb play is much worse then yours.

Why are you moving in here? You still have a workable stack with over 14x the bb.

[Thebram]

Why is this such a terrible call from the SB?
If he really puts the hero on a steal, then against two overcards, he's a 1.1:1 favorite, getting 1.2:1 pot odds.

I know these are not great odds to risk your whole stack with, especially considering the hero could just as easily have JJ or TT, but at this stage of the tournament is it really that horrible of a call?

SB has a slightly below average stack, and is still a good way away from the money. If you don't defend against a steal here, when do you?

[patrick dicaprio]

i am not a big fan of moving all in here. the problem with moving all in is that you will only be called when you are a dog to win. forget the fact that he had 99 which is a small fav to you. if you are trying to steal you can probably do so with a smaller bet. you still have quite a few chips left so why risk it all here when a smaller raise can do just as well most times.

Pat

[SmittyTheKid]

I don't agree with the all-in either. I think a call would have worked just fine here. IF you call and then get raised you still have the option to fold and see another day. The all-in move gives you no leverage if you were to see the flop and hit it. Also it is possible that the raiser may have slow played his 99 with you calling. In that case if you hit the flop, than you have 4 players in the pot and possibly a bigger win.

Smitty

[fnurt]

The big difference, and it is simply huge, between the poster's play and between the SB's play is that there was a very good chance the poster would get everyone to fold. From the SB's perspective, he is simply tossing the majority of his stack into the pot on a coin flip, with no chance his opponent will fold. It's a classic case of being a small favorite or a big dog.

Change the situation somewhat. Our hero limps in late position instead of raising. Now the action is on the SB with 99 and 3 limpers out there. Based on his read of the limpers, it's an entirely plausible play to push all-in from the blind with 99, because of the good chance that everyone will fold. The folding equity makes the situation totally different.

Don't get hung up on thinking of AK as a "drawing" hand and 99 as a "made" hand. The differences in how you play them go out the window when all the money is in pre-flop.