Is Kerry +157 a good value bet?

[mikelow]

Right now, CRIS has the Democrats +157 in the presidential race. Kerry is slightly ahead in most polls with Bush's approval ratings hovering around 48-50%.

On the surface, this looks tempting to take it. But one has to take these factors into account:

1. Osama could be captured.
2. The economy could pick up again.
3. Bush has a huge edge in fund-raising.
4. Security could become important again.
5. The gay marriage issue could be decisive.

Given that, would you take the +157, hoping to hedge later?

[PuppetMaster]

I think Bush is atleast a 75% favorite to win it. So, no.

[Wildbill]

I doubt any of those will come into play, other than if they really do catch Osama then. I don't think there is any way we could have a provable rip-roaring economy by then and the job numbers just won't change enough for Bush to make that compelling an argument. Remember the numbers get back adjusted, so any improvement would probably be seen well after the election. I also only think the money goes so far. Voters seemed to be turned off by Dean's incessant negativity, if Bush's team uses the money to just bash I don't see it going very far.

All that being said I don't think the election really gets decided until late October. It really is a tossup. There is such an entrenched camp of states for both sides, it will come down to the 10 or so that are in play, just like last time. Getting odds is nice, but those odds aren't that overwhelming.

[Rick Nebiolo]

The biggest factor against Kerry is that he has about the most liberal voting record in the Senate in a country that is fundamentally conservative. I put him at a 4 to 1 dog.

~ Rick

[biggiemcg]

On tradesports.com, bush to win in '04 is trading at the equivelent of -150. So yes, Kerry +157 is a good value. You could arbatrage the two bets for a very small profit. You can sell Bush in '04 for the equivelent of Kerry +145.

If you really think Bush should be a 4-1 favorite, you should by a ton of shares now.

[Wildbill]

I don't think being liberal is that big of a detractor. Just remember that elections with a sitting chief are always about his term and what has happened in his 4 years. The upstart wins or loses based on how the incumbent does almost every time around. I have a hard time calling how people will view Bush's years, but I do know that going out and being negative and focusing too much energy on what worts they think their opponent has is not going to do much. People that are in the "swing" category are going to say "am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" and the answer to that question will decide who they will vote for. Swing voters don't say "well gee even though the 4 years weren't good, I still think this guy is better than the other". They make a yea or nay vote on the incumbent.

[scottv]

Anybody bet with CRIS before? I like the Bush bet.