Hand to Talk About

[Ginogino]

Mason:
It seems to me you have to begin the analysis before the flop. What does your open-raise on the button mean to them? What will they re-raise with, and what would they fold?
The tighter they are, the higher the bar for both their re-raising and folding hands will be. The looser they are, the lower the bar for both kinds of hands. Also, do they know you, and how might this affect their game?
What do they take your open raise from the button to mean? What you'd open-raise with depends a good deal on the kind of players you're against, I'd think. Against players who fold too much, I think I'd open raise with QTs or pocket 5's or most A's. Against players who fold too little, I'd want KJs or pocket 6's or A9o or so (but this is very player dependent, and I'm not sure how much your game differs from the low limits where I play -- I know it's a lot, but don't know just what that means).

Against some players I could be sure that anyone with a Queen or Jack would take a shot at this pot by lead betting the flop. I'd think that some players might slow-play a flopped flush (though they'd be less likely to do so without the nut flush). You're the before-the-flop raiser; how likely are they to check to you on the flop out of habit? It's unlikely that you're against a set, as the monotone flop makes a set-holder fear a flush. So unless someone's slow-playing a flush (which I'd think improbable), what you are mostly against is hands that entirely or mostly missed the flop -- or that hold a singleton diamond worse than yours.
The turn 6h probably doesn't help anyone (it reduces the number of 6's in the unknown cards and there will be a reduced number of hands containing a 6 that the blinds will play, even against a possible steal-raise before the flop).
When the BB lead-bets on the turn, it sounds to me, then, more like a semi-bluff with a singleton diamond or maybe a straight draw or a small pocket pair.
You raise, and I'd think this has value both by reason of your nut-flush draw (other flush draws are drawing dead) and by reason of the chance that your Ace will win unimproved and by reason of setting up a potentially successful bluff attempt on the River (will he call you down if he has a tiny pocket pair? a pair of Jacks?).
Like many who have replied to your post, I'd be curious to know what you thought of the players in the blinds. And thanks for posting this, and all the other, hands.

Gino