AA hand for review

[benjdm]

PP, NL $50 table, I am in MP, a player who I am somewhat unfamiliar with but seems decent named Grifter is the button. I get A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. One limper to me, I raise it to $4, a pretty standard preflop raise for me. Grifter on the button and the limper calls.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Limper checks, I bet $8 into $12 pot, Grifter calls, limper folds.
Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I lead out $15 to $28 pot, Grifter calls. I'm guessing he may have AK (yay), KQ (boo), or have made trips. With 2 out of 3 bad, I am worried.
River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I check, he bets $25 into $55 pot. What to do ?

[Burk585]

IMHO you kind of put yourself in a bad position when you checked the river, because you may have induced a bluff. if you bet the river and get raised you have gained alot more information than when you checked and got bet at. also you didn't mention stack sizes, but in any case your getting better than 3 to 1 on your call, so i would go ahead and call. the board isnt that threatening, and if he is a decent player he probably wouldn't have called your preflop raise with KQ. hope you won! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Paul2432]

IMHO you kind of put yourself in a bad position when you checked the river, because you may have induced a bluff. if you bet the river and get raised you have gained alot more information than when you checked and got bet at.

I strongly disagree with the above advice. First of all a showdown gives you the best possible information. How can betting and then folding to a raise be superior to simply calling a bet. Both cost you the same amount of money except with the check-call sequence you get a showdown inluded. If you bet then fold to a raise you may be throwing away the best hand.

Second, inducing a bluff (or a misguided value bet) is exactly what you want. Especially if the player had nothing and would have folded to your bet.

There is concept in accounting, "the cost information should never be greater than the value of the information". I think betting for information here on the river is exactly the type of case the concept refers to.

Paul

[benjdm]

As far as stack sizes, I started hand with $95, Grifter $80. I couldn't see anything he could be chasing flush / straight wise, so if it was a bluff, I thought it was an unusually well done one with the two previous calls. I folded, contrary to the advice given.

[Utah]

You fold was really really bad. You can't fold for 4 reasons:

1) You play begs the other player to bet the river. You have mimiced the classic- Bluff, Bluff, time to give up on the river. He could have a A,K and be betting for value. He could have an underpair and be trying to push you off, etc. Definately enough uncertainty to warrant a call.
2) You are getting good odds
3) There is a good chance you would have heard from a monster on the turn.
4) You look like you can be pushed around.

[Mackas]

Don't see anything wrong with checking and calling here especially as stated above as you may induce a bluff or value bet with a lesser hand such as AK. Of your options on the river I would have favoured check call marginally over raise but would not have considered check fold unless the bet on the end was so big as to reduce your odds on the call drastically.

Definitely wouldn't fold to the bet on the end in this case though particularly as you basically invited him to bet it regardless of what he had and his raise leaves you getting better than 3 to 1 on your call on the end. Given he called your preflop raise and is a solid player you should be able to rule out KQ and a small pair. KK would more than likely have reraised preflop given that he doesn't want to let you catch an A cheap (the same might apply to QQ to a lesser extent although with a preflop raise already in a lot of people might just call to see if any nasty overcards fall). So what you are perhaps looking at as most likely are QQ or AK. AK is more likely than QQ and your getting 3 to 1 on your call anyway. Call.

FWIW that's how I would analyse the situation. I would be genuinely interested if this is flawed so anyone please feel free to chip in.

[Jon Matthews]

Given he called your preflop raise and is a solid player you should be able to rule out KQ and a small pair.


I don't rule these hands out since he has the button and more than likely a stack greater than $50 so preflop it's less than 10% of his stack. I'd play them here if I thought I could outplay my opponents after the flop...

That said, you can not fold here.

[Krytemaster]

I definitely think a call is in order here. Even if he is pretty decent he might very well have called your pre-flop bet with a KT or KJ, especially if they were suited.

Your bet doesn´t look too strong to me and considering that there is absolutely no good draws out on the flop, I think there is a pretty big chance he is calling your flop and turn bet with a KT or KJ thinking he has you beaten.

Of course he might have a KQ or a set and didn´t want to take you out of the lead since there wa no scary draws out there, but with such good pot odds on the end and such a weak bet from him - I wouldn´t hesitate even a little to call his river bet.

[The Dude]

I can't think of any players off the top of my haad that I would fold here against. Fearing KQ is playing scared poker. If he had raised the turn fine, but he only called. If he has a set (I think very unlikely) fine, so bet it. There certainly are some hands you're behind here, but you are ahead more than 1 of 4 times here (which is all the pot odds dictate you need to be). Call here every time.

BTW, bet more on turn. By betting the pot when you have strong hands, that sets you up to make good semi-bluffs with drawing hands later.

[EVIL]

You should mention stack sizes when discussing a NL/PL hand since they have a dramatic effect on play. Even though the buyin limit for your game is $50, nothing in your post excludes the possibility that you and Grifter have accumulated, say, $200+ stacks by the time this hand occurred.

Assuming the possible hole cards you put him on, there are 6 ways in which he could have AK, 9 in which he could have KQ, and 9 possible ways of having a set (if you exclude the possibility that he called the flop with QQ). In this case you are a 3:1 dog to show down the winning hand on the river, which is roughly the pot odds you are getting, so you would have an even-money call. I think getting a better estimate would require better knowledge of this player. For instance, I don't know how many, but probably a fair amount, would tend to check the river behind you holding only AK. On the other hand, maybe he would bet AK this way on the river because he's thinking you had decided to slow down holding only something like TT or JJ, and is hoping for a crying call with a bet that is somewhat modest in size relative to the pot. Also, if he is a decent player, he probably shouldn't be calling a preflop raise to $4 with KQ unless his stack and at least one other stack is significantly over $50, which he could then possibly use along with his position to outplay his opponents postflop.

I would call in this situation, since your check suggested weakness on the river and it looks like the odds are in the right ballpark. Also, you will get to see his cards, whereas if you lose, you don't have to show him anything. I think in a close decision like this, that should incline you to call.