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#1
12-16-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: Tricky spot with KK...??
[ QUOTE ]
The purpose of pushing the turn v. a flush draw is to eliminate implied odds and make the pot odds incorrect. If Villain had only 9 outs he would be more than a 4-1 dog and clearly a push would be correct. If an A will beat you then he has 3 additional outs for a total of 12. Multiply 12 X 2 = 24 and I call this approx. 3-1. If you've got enough stack left so that the pot size after your push will give him less than 3-1 on his call then clearly a push is correct. This also works in reverse. By that I mean if is correct for Villain to call then it can't be correct for you to push. And if you can't push then you check behind. If you had been kind enough to put pot sizes on flop and turn this would be an easy calc. As it is it's too much trouble. You'll have to do it yourself. I think it'll be close, therefore not a 100% push. If so, check behind and push the river on a blank. [/ QUOTE ] Are you serioulsy suggesting that we give the flush draw a free look at the river? seriously? The money in the pot is already in play so whether we give him a free look or not it does not go into our calculation on whether to bet or not. We have x left, we are betting x that villan doesn't hit his 1/3 chance. We are a 3-1 favorite to double up what we have left in our stack if villan calls with his 12 outs. Winning the money already in the pot has no correlation to our bet on the turn. The bet on the turn is gambeling what is left in our stacks. I will take that gamble everytime. You guys do know there are situations where a betting by hero and calling by villan is +EV for both players? 
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#2
12-16-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: Tricky spot with KK...??
[ QUOTE ]
You guys do know there are situations where a betting by hero and calling by villan is +EV for both players? [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking about that when I saw that post. I got very confused and my view on poker turned upside-down. Then I figured it out again.
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#4
12-16-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Tricky spot with KK...??
Clearly I have been caught gibbering incoherently. I did indeed forget that it is possible for both players to make +EV plays at the same time. For some reason my brain was not properly engaged. I can not think of any conditions that would entitle villain to a free card when that card could beat me. Although I'm donk enough to post something like that I'd have to give it up if I actually made a play like that.
Thanks for the correction.
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