What else am I doing with these aces??

[stlip]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy bet.

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Am I missing something.

We bet on the assumption he has no heart. If he doesn't have one yet he is about 4-1 not to get one on the river, either. So we're protecting a hand that's a pretty big favorite even if we do nothing. And a river heart is only a chop of a still smallish pot.

If we are right that he doesn't have a heart a bet that causes villain to fold has about +0.5 BB EV.

If he does have a heart then we'll assume it costs us 2 BB, but we've got the 10 outs to beat his flush so we'll get that 2 BB back a little better than 20 percent of the time. Still that's a bit more than -1 BB EV, though. (But hey, if he has a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or both then another [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will allow us to chop, I suppose that brings us back to just -1 for our EV.)

That leaves the question of how often he has a heart. For a starting point in any two cards it's about 3 to 2 against having a specific suit. So against an opponent playing a random two the bet is already a loser. And clearly villain had a reason for deciding to contest this pot, which could have included a few things other than a heart but nowhere near enough to make me want to bet this turn.

[Jinx]

if villain has a heart he most likely would not have bet into the PFR. He probably has a pair and wants the PFR to raise it to protect it from hearts.

But that's speculation. Who knows if the villain has a heart. But I'd say there's a >50% chance that the hero is still ahead. and even if he isn't it's not like villain is going to check raise a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Bet it for value and check behind the river.

also, the 3 to 2 against having a suit odds doesn't work because his hand isn't "random", there are only 9 hearts left.