LUCK INDICATORS...PLEASE HELP!

[prop]

over my first 36k hands 6 tabling 5-10 i won 17k, over my last 11k hands ive lost 10k. before i change my game i would like to know if im just running bad, it seems ther should be some info on statandard win rates for certain hands (aa,kk,jj,aks, etc.) and frequency and win rates from hands in the misc tab on poker tracker (2 pair, set, straight, etc.)

im interested due to the fact that over the last 10k hands i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play. i think some baseline numbers here would help us all sleep better at night and not tinker so much in down swings.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
im interested due to the fact that over the last 10k hands i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to disprove this yourself, no?

BTW, your sample size is too small to tell anything.

And BTW#2: the correct way to look at your scenario is that over your first 47K hands, you've won $7,000. Your distinction b/t your first 36K and next 11K is meaningless. It's called variance.

You're at 1.5 BB/100, which is just fine. If you think your 4.7BB/100 from your first 36K was a) your true winrate, or b) sustainable, you are wrong. I've run at 8BB/100 for 40,000 stretches. The correction is never far behind.

Good luck!

[prop]

jeeezus f'ing christ!! i understand varience and sample size they have no relation to what im asking here. im asking what the baseline winrates are for certain hands so that in THE SHORT RUN one can see how far off they are. here, let me spell this out for you...if you were in the midst of a 200 bb downswing and you were getting and winning all hands 2pair or better at the baseline rate you would know you were playing bad and leaking chips somewhere BUT if you were getting less of these hands and/or winning at a lower than expected rate with these hands you would need not tinker w/ your game due to the fact tthat your loss could be explained through "bad luck" and not a leak! DO U UNDERSTAND A WORD THAT IS COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH.

[Tk79]

You seem like kind of a dick but here .

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem like kind of a dick

[/ QUOTE ]

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
jeeezus f'ing christ!! i understand varience

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't spell it, I doubt you understand it.

[Tk79]

Its good that you posted this all over the damn site too. I think its important enough for several forums dont you??

[smartalecc5]

jagbag alert!

[prop]

thanks, its a start. ill email them about expected value of generic holdings such as, 2 pr, straight etc. and the expected frequency of holding such hands.