Huge variance over 1000SNGs (33s)

Van Strummer · #1 10-02-2005, 06:32 PM

After all the posts by players running bad/breaking even for 30-40 tournaments and positing I just wanted to post a good illustration of some real variance (at least thats what I hope it is.)

I have been playing STTs for about 18 months. And I have played about 5500 tournaments in this span, starting out in the 11s and moving up to the 55s. I have kept records for the 4500 I have played in the 22s, 33s and 55s.

My ROI has been in the 15-20% range in the 22s and 33s. My results have always been very stable and I don`t even think I have had a 20 buyin downswing before, nor a really big upswing. All my results look pretty much like this (which are the last 1000 tourneys I played before this really swingy period started):
ROI: 19,1%
ITM: 38,3%
Bubble +/-: -1,1%

In July I decided to test out the 55s and started out by making about 60 buyins in 150 tourneys. After this I broke even for the next 450:
ROI: 7%
ITM: 35,2%
Bubble +/-: -0,1%

After this I decided to try working on my 8-tabeling skills in the 33s (I had been 6 tabeling up to this point). Ran up 15 buyins in my first session and felt great. Then went into a 60 buyin downswing (cutting back down to 6 tabeling midways) and when I was totally fed up on SNGs and about to quit everything I hit a major heater winning 75 buyins in 120 tournaments. I ran average for the next 250 before finishing the set of 1000 with another 30+ buyin downswing (still counting) today.
ROI: 2,3%
ITM: 34,4%
Bubble +/-: -6,1%

What strikes me the most is the lack of 1sts and the bubble +/- of: -6,1% (this was actually over 8% at the 500 mark). This is especially strange because while analyzing my game most of the mistakes I found were me being too aggressive 5 and 6 handed. I have actually decreased my 5th and 6th place finishes. If anyone else have experienced this or an extreme bubble +/- I would really like to hear from you.

I still believe (especially after my last downswing) that something has to be wrong with my game, but I am not able to find it, nor has my friends who have looked through some of my hand histories. I have very little confidence in my game right now and will probably take a long break before starting over fresh with another 1000.

Sabrazack · #2 10-02-2005, 06:56 PM

I have a -9% bubble +/- over my last 400 tournaments. It sucks.. I think i am being to agressive when i have a large stack and others have similarly sized stacks. I also think im pushing too much junk into very big/small stacks. I am now trying to correct these mistakes and have started a new database. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

lem45216 · #3 10-02-2005, 07:58 PM

I know how both of you feel. I feel the same.
Its like variance victims anonymous:
Hi, my name's jaffa, and i'm a victim of variance.

My profit loss graph looks a bit like this.

AA suited · #4 10-02-2005, 07:58 PM

what is bubble +/- %?

lem45216 · #5 10-02-2005, 08:02 PM

Yeah i was wondering the same thing.

pergesu · #6 10-02-2005, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what is bubble +/- %?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you make it to the bubble, you expect to go ITM 75% of the time. Makes sense cause 3/4 people get in. If you actually only make it 70% of the time, then your ITM from bubble +- would be -5%

ace_in_the_hole · #7 10-02-2005, 08:08 PM

I sometimes dream that my profit graph could look like your top one, but for 10,000 SnG's and at the 109's. Wouldn't that be swell?

lem45216 · #8 10-02-2005, 08:18 PM

The top graph is absolute textbook in my opinion. Very nice.

raptor517 · #9 10-02-2005, 08:45 PM

jaffa yer my new favorite poster. holla

Roman · #10 10-02-2005, 08:56 PM

totally OT, but what program do u use to graph these results?