#11
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Re: 10/20 Live AA UTG...Everyone Cold Calls
betting the turn is much better than check-raising, the 15% chance the turn gets checked around is an absolute disaster when it happens. Plus what if the guy to your direct left raises, then you are in much better shape than if you check and that guy bets out (i know you can c/r the whole field, but you would rather eliminate some by forcing them to have two bets) just cause you know someone behind you will very likely bet, doesn't mean it will be the guy with optimal position for you to c/r. Also, what if it goes:
hero checks, bet, raise, call. Then you are the one who has to call two cold, and that's trouble even if you are winning you have a tough call |
#12
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Re: 10/20 Live AA UTG...Everyone Cold Calls
You really 3-bet a raise? Two pair is out of the question for someone?
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#13
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Results and Confusion
This hand occurred about 2 years ago. I never forgot it because it happened towards the end of a personal record of 13 straight losses with pocket Aces over just about 20 hours of total play.
I bet straight out, as some of you have suggested and it simply went call, call, call, etc. After reading some of Mason's thought-provoking work, I decided that it is possible that a better player would have won this pot, even though I seemingly played it textbook correct. The last card was a 6, freeing me from the obvious straight and flush draws. I got beat by three sixes, however. Since this was not the type of crowd to fold any 5-out draw for less than 2 bets, perhaps I should have done more. There is no guarantee that the turn would have been bet if I had checked, however, I really thought that the players to my immediate left would have raised the flop with a jack or a ten. I don't think it would have occured to them to wait to raise on the turn. Therefore, I didn't see any reason why I would have gotten a protection raise by either the player to my immediate left or the next player. The only player at the table capable of this play would have been my taggish friend. Now, I suspect that the chance that this turn gets checked around is possibly as high as 30%, because I don't suspect any very strong hands out there. Unless someone flopped a set or turned 2 pair, I would have known about it. These players aren't incredibly sophisticated, but they do know not to slowplay a flopped 2 pair in such a big pot. Therefore, I think I should have taken my chances and checked in an attempt to check-raise. In doing so, most players at the table would have given me credit for a set of jacks or tens because it was a regular game and I have a tight image with them. As long as I would have gotten the bet from late position (and I suspect that there's a good chance I would have), I would have saved the pot because the guy was not going to call 2 bets cold with 63o (his actual holding) against a probable set. This was my reason for posting this and I apologize if the question I was asking was not clear at that point. Does anybody agree or disagree with taking this unusual step (and unusual risk) in not betting my hand? Please don't be results-oriented if at all possible. What are the pros and cons of making highly unusual plays like this? |
#14
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Re: Results and Confusion
Hard to believe no one would bet the turn. Going for the c/r looked preferable here.
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