#1
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Football pool probabilites...
Maybe i'm missing something.
I am in a football pool that you pick with lines. Assume there are 4 players, and 4 games, and the probability of winning each individual game is 50%. Name/Team1/Team2/Team3/Team4 Alf/A/C/E/G Bob/A/D/E/H Cat/A/C/F/H Don/B/D/F/H (basically, Don is the only player to take team B, the rest split on the other games.) If there is a tie, a winner is chosen randomly. I ran a 21k sim, and have the probabilies: Alf: 22.6% Bob: 22.5% Cat: 23.4% Don: 31.5% Can I extrapolate this, and say when I play in my football pools, i should try and pick the opposite of what other people have? |
#2
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Re: Football pool probabilites...
If I knew more about football pools I might better be able to answer this... but the only thing I can offer is an interrogative question...
If the probability of winning each game is 50%.... why does that 21K sim say Don is the winner? Is it because he picked team B? Therefore you should pick team B? I don't understand the scenario, I guess. |
#3
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Re: Football pool probabilites...
If:
1. All results are equally probable. and 2. The payout is split between all of the people that picked a particular result. Then it's obviously true that the least chosen combinations have the best value. |
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