Suited Trash in SB, Opponent Skill Level

If BB raises and everyone calls, then if you make your flush (or two-pair, trips, fh), you just made more money against his TPTK, set, a-high, or whatever. (Not to mention I know many players who are hesitant to raise from the BB with many hands. They justify it with "I have to hit to win and this won't eliminate anyone.")

I'm not saying you want your one-pair to hold up and win. That's not the idea with 92s.

Okay, I understand what you mean by 15:1 now.

[bozlax]

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I'm not saying you want your one-pair to hold up and win. That's not the idea with 92s.

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This is my point, tho. You say getting 9:1 is more than enough to justify calling, but you're only 15:1 to make the only decent chance you have to win the hand. And that needs to be reduced, slightly, to account for the times that you do make your flush and lose to a better hand (this being a case where I don't think it balances out with the times that you catch a different winner).

[Aaron W.]

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This is my point, tho. You say getting 9:1 is more than enough to justify calling, but you're only 15:1 to make the only decent chance you have to win the hand. And that needs to be reduced, slightly, to account for the times that you do make your flush and lose to a better hand (this being a case where I don't think it balances out with the times that you catch a different winner).

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Preflop play is NOT about pot odds

[Henke]

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With 3 limpers before you, there's 4.5 bets in the pot and it costs you .5 to complete, so you have 9:1 odds. That's more than enough to justify completing. And that's just looking at conventional odds!

Also, sometimes you do not need to hit your flush/straight to win. Bet out your draw on the flop and in some situations bet out the turn and you can take down the pot unimproved.

With 3 limpers before you, I definitely see playing any 2 suited cards in the SB as profitable. With 2 limpers I would limit it to suited connectors.

What do you mean 15:1 to make the flush by river? Isn't making the flush by river ~2:1 when you flop a 4-flush?

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Huh? More than enough? What are the odds that you'll flop a flush? Two pair? One pair and have it hold up? Put some numbers behind this to convince me that 9:1 odds is more than enough to play 92s. What if BB raises and everybody calls?

And 15:1 is the odds preflop of 2 suited cards turning into a flush by the river, since that's what we're talking about.

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Say the probability of flopping a flushdraw is 11%. Probability of flopping a flush is 0.84%. Two pair (using both cards) 2%. Trips using one of the cards is .0135%. However, the flushdraw will only come in about 35% of the time, so we should put it at 3.85%. This sums to about 8%, or 11.4:1. Of course the flush might loose sometimes, the two pairs/trips might also get outdrawn. But sometimes we will also draw out after flopping a flushdraw, and sometimes a pair of nines might even win! So I think it might be playable against crappy opponents, given that BB will almost certainly not raise.

The amount of times you miss your flush but make two-pair, trips, or better (or your semi-bluff bets make them fold) null out the amount of times you lose with a made flush.

Also lets say you flop a pair of twos with your flush draw. You now have even more outs!

Against looser players who stay too far with weak draws and weak pairs... you're more than likely to gain at least six more small bets from them (or 3 BB). Say you bet on the flop and only two of them call (a very conservative estimate for loose games). You bet on the turn and one calls. You bet on the river improved to 2-pr or better and win.

And against tighter players, they are more apt to fold their weak draws and weak pairs, so you have a better chance of winning unimproved. Especially on raggedy boards when you're in the blinds.

[bozlax]

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This is my point, tho. You say getting 9:1 is more than enough to justify calling, but you're only 15:1 to make the only decent chance you have to win the hand. And that needs to be reduced, slightly, to account for the times that you do make your flush and lose to a better hand (this being a case where I don't think it balances out with the times that you catch a different winner).

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Preflop play is NOT about pot odds

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Great post.

I'm saying that 92s isn't automatic from the SB. That's all.

And for me, it's not about pot odds, although that's what this part of the thread has devolved into. It's because (for me) there aren't enough ways to make a winner out of 92s, against any number of opponents, for it to be worth an extra .25BB per time I see it.

[bozlax]

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given that BB will almost certainly not raise.

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Which is where I started. I play this if I have a strong read that BB won't raise.

Yeesh! Next time I'll just go poke a hornet's nest with a stick.

[Henke]

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given that BB will almost certainly not raise.

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Which is where I started. I play this if I have a strong read that BB won't raise.


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Yeah, I read that, and that's why I put it in a different font...

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Yeesh! Next time I'll just go poke a hornet's nest with a stick.

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I'm sorry if I offended you, wasn't ment that way. Just wanted to clarify your argument with some numbers...

[deception5]

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With 3 limpers before you, there's 4.5 bets in the pot and it costs you .5 to complete, so you have 9:1 odds. That's more than enough to justify completing. And that's just looking at conventional odds!

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Sure, but the question was about 2 limpers before you.

[deception5]

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Preflop play is NOT about pot odds

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This is true to an extent. But pot odds are a relevant factor in preflop play, just not the only factor. The problem is that against bad players you generally will need to show down the best hand. With terrible position and a crappy hand like this you don't have much room to outplay your opponents postflop (unless they are absolutely terrible beyond the typical bad players). You simply won't hit enough and will have to check fold on the flop. K4s is miles better than 92s.