#21
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Re: Turn thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
im saying your estimate is an underestimate, i think. its just what i feel from the way the hand went and the button played. if hes fitting or folding im sure AAA, KKK, and AAKK fit his hands very nicely. [/ QUOTE ] You don't think AQ or AJ fit? Even if you don't like AJ fitting AT ALL, I'm drawing dead only 10/18 = 56% of the time. I'm still not losing (though I'm not winning much at all). But at the same time, I completely discounted the king outs as chop outs. Are my kings ALWAYS dead? There's room to play, but you have to work pretty hard to make it a losing situation. |
#22
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Re: Turn thoughts
what about 3 way chops. what happens when you throw those into the mix?
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#23
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Re: Turn thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
what about 3 way chops. what happens when you throw those into the mix? [/ QUOTE ] You're asking something really complicated, because you need to tell me how often I'm chopping 3 ways. I'll do a simplified calculation where I just assume that I'm chopping 3 ways and compute the EV of that. Here is the same information as the first computation, with the only relevant changes in bold. (Well, there's another small change, in that I now only have 44 unknowns in the deck instead of 45, but that's a tiny change.) [ QUOTE ] When I have outs... ... I hit my three good outs 3/45 times (I can account for an extra ace in Button's hand, giving me 7 exposed cards). When I hit this out, I win the whole pot, say 18 BB. ... I hit my six chop outs 6/45 times. I win a third of the pot, say 6 BB. ... I miss my outs 36/45 times. I lose 1 BB. When I don't have outs... ... I hit my imaginary outs 9/45 times and lose 2 BB. ... I miss my imaginary outs 9/45 times and lose 1 BB. EV = 60% * ((3/45)*(18) + (6/45)*(6) + (36/45)*(-1)) + 40% * ((9/45)*(-2) + (36/45)*(-1)) = 60% * (1.2 + .8 - .8) + 40% * (-.4 - .8) = .72 - .48 = .24 |
#24
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Re: Turn thoughts
i fold. good hand. i just feel that such small edges are so wishy washy and tough that i will just end the hand earlier or go all the way.
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#25
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Re: Am I crazy? I just folded top pair in a huge pot...
First Grunch:
Preflop: I would have just called and folded to the 3bet or cap that ensued. Flop: No backdoor draws, and a weak draw to Aces and 8's, excluding the diamonds giving at best 6 outs, probably more like 4 discounted. You were getting 17-1 pot odds after SBs bet but could more or less count on a raise behind you. I would fold it there as you're already behind AA, KK, AK-A9, A4, K4. Turn: Check-Fold River: Check-Fold |
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