JJ on the bubble

[tolbiny]

50$ buy in with rebuys and addons - final table, 9 players left.
Payouts are
1st 1965
2nd 1310
3rd 917
4th 655
5th 524
6th 460
7th 393
8th 330

Blinds are 400/800 average stack is 16000, small stacks are around 5000

The big stack is >40,000 and limps UTG - folded to me in
I am the 2nd biggest stack with 28000 with JJ and raise to 3400.

Blinds fold and the big stack calls.
Pot is 8000
Flop comes 2s 9s 5c and BS checks
I bet 7000 and the BS thinks for a little and calls. Pot = 22,000
Turn Kc
BS checks.
Now what?


EDIT: UTG's stack is 44,000

[Dave D]

I think I would have bet the flop harder. You got lucky with all undercards, but you have to know chances are it wont stay that way, and a flush draw out there. I think I bet 12000, especially because it sounds like villian has been playing loose.

But whatever.

I think I check behind here, and hope villian doesn't bet too much on the river so I can call him. That king brings flush draws, and its an overcard on you. You've already bet pretty hard, I feel like villian has called you thus far b/c he might actually have you beat.

[kiffl]

Let me just say first this is a very tough spot and I might be totally off. I read the big stack for a flush draw with a hand like KQ of spades, or QJ of spades. That would make sense for the way he has played the hand this far. I can't read him for AKs because I think he would raise under the gun with it. AA-QQ doesn't seem possible unless he is patient enough to set a trap and just smooth call the raise preflop. In this spot I think you should go all in because you can push out KQs or AKs which you don't want to allow to draw against you. The only problem is you could be almost dead vrs. AA or KK that is trapping. If you got the balls to risk your whole tournament in this spot go all-in, if not just check behind and play the river.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have bet the flop harder. You got lucky with all undercards, but you have to know chances are it wont stay that way, and a flush draw out there. I think I bet 12000, especially because it sounds like villian has been playing loose.

But whatever.

I think I check behind here, and hope villian doesn't bet too much on the river so I can call him. That king brings flush draws, and its an overcard on you. You've already bet pretty hard, I feel like villian has called you thus far b/c he might actually have you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting 12000 on this flop is playing pretty scared poker, you want to make it somewhat enticing for him to play back at you or come along with a better hand, furthermore, would you bet 12000 here with AK ever? As for the turn advice, you really want to try to overprotect your hand on the flop, but then on the turn you want to check behind when the K comes? In my opinion, the turn probably did not change anything, unless the villain has exactly KsQs, what K do you figure him for that he would play like that up to this point? Its way more likely that the villain has a middle pocket pair that figured hero for whiffed overcards.

[Dave D]

I mean I don't think it's playing scared so much as trying to protect my hand against the flush draw and overcards that are likely to come. I really have no problem taking down the pot right there against the big stack when I'm the second big stack, I'd rather fight small stacks than the one person that can take me out. I'm not saying I hate OP's bet, I just think I'd feel more comfortable with 12k. I think I also get more information out of him from his reaction to that bet.

I'm not sure I understand you asking about AK. Hero has JJ?

Villian could have any two clubs, AK, KQ, KJ. It's a reasonable range and so far he didnt fold to a big PF bet and a big flop bet. He has to have something, or he's just really loose or something.


edit: I'd be more willing to play QQ or KK or AA on the flop like pat says. But I draw the line with JJ.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand you asking about AK. Hero has JJ?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that if you continue to vary your bets dramatically based on your hand strength that people will soon pick up on it.

[Dave D]

I would have played AK the same way hero played it pre and on the flop. The difference is that I hope he folds on this flop w/ AK.

edit: In other words I would have bet on the flop more because I want more information for later streets on villian. If I had AK, and he calls my bet on the flop and I dont improve on the turn I'll probably check for my free card.

[tolbiny]

My thinking so far in the hand and the "read"
I was watching the other table since we had gotton down to 13 players or so, and the Big stack seemed to be using it fairly well- picking up a lot of blinds- i had seen himlimp a couple of times, but nothing to indicate that he was a loose limper. i hadn't seen any of his limping hands shown down (this is just a vague read as i was the large stack at my table and was involved in hands frequently as i tried to steal blinds, i was just trying to get a sense of the other table).
When he limps UTG my fear that he could be setting a trap and not wanting to commit myself to the pot with 1 out of the money with a healthy stack was the reason i raise just over 3x the BB as oppose dto 4-5x that i normally would.
On the flop i felt like i had to fold to a big checkraise which would signify AA-QQ to me, not wnating to burn out 1 out of the money, but i also didn't want to invite a bluff raise, i felt that 7/8 of the pot was enough to show my ocmmitment to the hand.
I checked behind on the turn as any bet pot commits me and wanted to see the action on the river.

The river blanked and he bet 13,500 into my 17,500 stack- which would have left me with the smallest stack at the table.