Top two NL50 (big stacks)

[bkholdem]

I'm fine playing for my stack against an unknown preflop raiser heads up on that board.

To all of those that say fold: What board would you not fold your top 2 pair to a river push there?

[rikz]

Without more info on villain, I think its a fold. I don't think he has AT for TPTK or an overpair like JJ. The line is just too passive on the flop and turn, then too aggressive on the river. With a high pair, I think he'd just call your $20 bet on the river instead of pushing. So, I think that he either missed a draw, or has a made hand on the flop.

He might be slow playing his set of tens/nines/sevens, or have 86s or J8s for the flopped straight. What's so strange here is that his line for a set or straight seems bad - slow playing every street with a flush on the board that would beat him.

So, since this seems so read dependent, and you have no read, I think its best to make a note of how he played this hand, fold, and move on.

The interesting thing about two pair, in general, is that after losing so many big pots with that hand I've decided that without a strong read I should start treating two pair more like TPTK than like a set. Sure, if I'm heads up with a tight preflop raiser then my 2-pair is probably golden since I might stack off AA or KK with my T9 two pair. But, in a situation like this, I just don't like 2-pair so much for all my chips.

[ryanghall]

Bet 45 or so on the river. If you think he's the type to pay off with an overpair, go all-in.

As played, call the push easy unless you think he'd raise with 77 here. Even still, he's awful if he doesn't raise this flop (but a lot of people don't bet with sets for some reason).

Ryan

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll see a set here more often than not.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a set raise such a draw-heavy board? It seems like a lot of hands Hero would bet aggressively here might be pair+draw type hands, unless villain is really weak I would think a set would raise the flop.

[jkkkk]

It's possible, but I really think you'll see a set here >66% of the time which makes this a fold. I rarely see people pushing with what once started as a 100BB stack, let alone a 200BB stack, without a set or better.

If he is a tricky player, he could be doing this with J8, 86, 77, possibly 99, TT.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible, but I really think you'll see a set here >66% of the time which makes this a fold. I rarely see people pushing with what once started as a 100BB stack, let alone a 200BB stack, without a set or better.

If he is a tricky player, he could be doing this with J8, 86, 77, possibly 99, TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Instead of working backwards why don't you put him on a range preflop and on the flop based on his play. Keep in mind that you do not know the villian so it is not appropriate to say "I think he will do x here" you don't have any idea who he is or how he plays....

[JobyWan]

I thought about it some more, and my reasoning for not suspecting a set or a straight was that he'd want to protect his hand against such a heavy drawing board. But, one point worth mentioning is the aggressive betting by our hero. If the villain had a straight, he would fear a flush draw, but might rule out that possibility for the hero as the hero is leading out with pot sized bets. Someone on a draw may lead into a pot for various reasons, but a pot sized bet on the turn after a flop call seems pretty aggressive for a flush draw. Perhaps the villain suspected the hero had tptk or two pair and was himself betting to protect his hand against draws, thus making villain's set or straight good. The weak river bet certainly affirms this.

JobyWan

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about it some more, and my reasoning for not suspecting a set or a straight was that he'd want to protect his hand against such a heavy drawing board. But, one point worth mentioning is the aggressive betting by our hero. If the villain had a straight, he would fear a flush draw, but might rule out that possibility for the hero as the hero is leading out with pot sized bets. Someone on a draw may lead into a pot for various reasons, but a pot sized bet on the turn after a flop call seems pretty aggressive for a flush draw. Perhaps the villain suspected the hero had tptk or two pair and was himself betting to protect his hand against draws, thus making villain's set or straight good. The weak river bet certainly affirms this.

JobyWan

[/ QUOTE ]

That is only one possibility out of many.

Are you saying you check top 2 pair on the turn here once your flop bet is called? If you do, your plan is to fold because you think you are beat?

Please answer the question I asked in my post below.

[JobyWan]

As I said in my original post, I still call. I did want to acknowledge the thought process as I think it's important. In fact, I revisited this thread to report that the thought process actually came into play today and because of this post, I doubled up where I might have folded.

I don't have the hand history, as I'm at work. But I had 9 10o in the big blind. Flop was 6H,7D,8H. I lead out for $5 into a $5 pot and was raised to $10. I re-raised to $15 and he called. Turn was a QS. I lead out for $10 and was raised to $25. I called. River was the AH, allowing for a possible flush. I lead out for $20 and he pushed for $84 ($64 more). I had the straight but feared the flush, but thought back to this post and wondered why he'd push so hard with a flush draw. I called and he had 45o for the low straight. This player was tight in general, so I had to give the flush real consideration, but decided pretty quickly that it didn't fit his betting pattern given that I'd just thought out a similar scenario here.

JobyWan

[bingledork]

Results?

I think I'd call and expect to see AA/KK half the time and a set the other half.