Rough Ride with the Ladies in a $215

[ChipLeader]

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Bascially if the guy moved allin for 900, then Id think its a bit less likely he has AA-KK (Although I almost always just move allin for 900 with AA-KK in that spot).

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I play online poker based on the assumption that i am better than my opponent. This is why i push AA/KK here (with 900) and rely on them betting small. As youve pointed out, with such a small stack hes probably pushing a wide range of hands from AA-99 lowest, + AK is possible. This is all the credit i give him, and the likeliness is based on reads.

It seems like this post has come down to two things- odds of him pushing AA/KK based ona read we dont have, and the goals of the tournament. One player doesnt like risking it all with a 44% chance even with the good pot odds because he feels doubling with high % to win is better than tripling with averahe % to win. Im not sure if theres a definitive answer to this thread but i dont think we can evaluate it any further.

[microbet]

Ok, I have to go to sleep. What did they have?

For the record, I lean towards a call, but I think it is very close. I think the pusher is short enough stacked that he will open up his pushing range a bit.

In a $22 or below I would call for sure, but in that case because they might think 77 is the nuts.

[Jman28]

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I dunno, Im really not a huge fan. I play with the same players too often. Once they know Im capable of raising less in a spot like that with AA-KK, then they know for sure that everytime in the future when I move allin, im a bit less likely to have these hands. This does mean something. I want to move allin in these spots and show down AA-KK quite often.

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I see your point. I guess I don't think all that much about the future when playing.

[Jman28]

At the request of Microbet, I give you the results.

I pushed. UTG called.

UTG+1 had JJ. UTG had AA. Q on the flop and I win.

[curtains]

Its not a bad strategy not to think about the future, although it's dangerous in the $215s with so many common opponents. I mean I literally would play in 10-15 sit and gos with the same people in a single day of playing only tourneys. Anyway it is very transparent and some peoplpe will play tighter due to the smaller raise, especially at the $215s. I mean when someone raises half their stack there after an UTG raise I am putting them on AA-KK and thats it. There are others who think like me as well I'm sure. I honestly might fold KK in that spot if 2nd to act made it like 350. I don't think it would be terrible at all to do so.

This combined with the future considerations mean I would just move allin.

[NYCNative]

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UTG+1 had JJ. UTG had AA.

[/ QUOTE ]Nobody gave UTG credit for anything here, which was a surprise. I still think that a big UTG raise is a HUGE indicator of strength, especially at a 215.[ QUOTE ]
Q on the flop and I win.

[/ QUOTE ]nh, sir. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[microbet]

Thanks.

As far as UTG+1 goes: see JJ!
As far as UTG goes: oops.
But I forgot to add that I was sure you could hit a Q.

[sourbeaver]

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If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK & AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

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If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

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Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

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I honestly think that he would raise smaller with AA, and probably with KK too.

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Making an action reraise, or minimum raise, on a previous raise simply screams AA or KK. In a tournament situation like this, I prefer pushing w my AA or KK and hope opponent reasons that I'm weak(er).

Sure enough, this depends on skill level.

[microbet]

In light of how obvious it is that a smaller raise by the shorter stack would scream AA, who makes that raise with trash?