Rough Ride with the Ladies in a $215

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
Two AKs would sure be sweet, and AK and JJ would be pretty sweet too.

[/ QUOTE ]If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK & AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

Okay, against two with AK I make the call but I don't like putting my tournament life at stake being an aggregate underdog. And all of this ASSUMES our BEST case scenario (with UTG calling). Worse than that we're a massive underdog.

Yes, UTG might say something like, "Gah, what have I done" and fold to the two pushes and you're in much better shape but that was a REALLY big raise and there's a LOT of money in the pot so he had to be a real moron to fold it in this case. Either way, we're both COUNTING on UTG to fold AND we're hoping that UTG+1 doesn't have us dominated.

This is all a lot to hope for. Too much to hope for, probably.

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't know what else to say other than fold. This is a situation that I need to get better at folding in as well.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK & AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK & AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

[curtains]

I usually fold here.

[psyduck]

I'm not sure about the 215s, but at the $55s and lower, this is a clear push from any position following this action, right?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1, especially knowing him to be pretty solid...you've gotta put him on no WORSE than JJ or AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, pretty much (maybe TT). Thing is, I can't put him on much better than those hands either. I feel like he'd raise smaller with AA and maybe KK too to get more value.

His push seems like he wants people out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but cmon, if hes any good, he understands that most people at the table arent huge morons. When someone has 650 chips and they reraise to like 350, then we know they have something. I would NEVER make any other raise in that spot with any hand that Im going to play, aside from moving allin.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If those are the absolute BEST cases - and even if they showed you them face-up - do we make this call:

QQ is 57.4-67.2% to win vs AK & AK depending on how they're suited.

QQ against JJ and AK is around 42% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am shown either of those cases, I insta-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ditto, but UTG+1 is showing you AA/KK a lot of the time, and you know it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly think that he would raise smaller with AA, and probably with KK too.

[ChipLeader]

42% with 2:1 odds = instacall barring very rare exceptions which i cant think of right now.

However, your point is valid about how this is best case scenario. Still, with 2:1 odds you only have to be 33% to be even money and if you consider the advantage you have with such a bigstack i take it. The real problem comes from when theres an overpair-
As i said, in the 50s and lower im in a tough place to call or fold and will usually call since the likeliness of poorer quality is high, im nto famaliar enough with the 215s to know how often this is AA/KK

[microbet]

There are better case scenerios.

vs. JJ and TT you are 67.5% (not even terribly unlikely)
vs. JJ and JJ you are 96%