333 - please correct my confusion...

[Shillx]

These are the two big mistakes. I probably would have 3 bet the river, but this pales in comparisson to the mistakes on the first two streets.

This doesn't really make any sense. If not 3-betting the river is a 1 BB mistake, the 1st two mistakes have to be less then this. Think about it...

The preflop cold call can at most be a 1 BB mistake. Let's say that he throws his hand any to any further betting no matter if there is a flop or not (or if he hits a set). He will always lose 1 BB unless the hand goes to showdown with no betting and he has the winner. Since he will not throw his hand away should he make a set, the coldcall is far less then a 1 BB mistake. It is a significant mistake, but nothing like not getting that extra BB on the river when our hand is good damn near 100% of the time.

The flop call is a very small mistake in comparison. Let's assume that he will always have to pay 2 SB on the flop (this is reasonable imo).

EV = 25 SB * 1/22 - 2 SB = - .43 BB

Both of these are much worse then not 3-betting the river if we always have the best hand. Given the action, it is hard to assume that we aren't good on this river unless the CO is a nutcase and could have re-raised preflop with A4.

Brad

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to add that despite some mistakes in the hand, for a first post you did a really good job of posting.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very true.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
made me throw up a little in my mouth, folding a pair getting 15:2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just ran a PokerStove sim; we have around 84% equity at best if we flop a set, even with a perfect, drawless board vs a better, 3 better and loose SB. Are our implied odds going to make up for this?

[Greg J]

I am talking about a huge leak of calling like this. Forgive me -- I'm a little drunk, but will try to be as cogent as possible. If you are going to be calling down like this, this will bleed you dry a LOT faster than missing some value bets when you hit yr hand. Chasing this set is a much bigger problem in the long run than not 3 betting the river.

[damaniac]

At 7.5:1, we only need to make up, I dunno say 4 BB's (or 8 little ones) (that gives us 11.5:1, and we're like what, 9:1 to flop a set, so that's quite a bit of overlay). And when we hit I think we win more than 4BB's. Yes we lose sometimes to, but folding at 7.5:1 is ridiculous IMO. It's rarely going to be correct to fold a pp once you've put money into the pot.

[Henke]

we're already getting 15:2, or 7.5:1 when it's capped back to us, so we don't have to make up for nothing (since we're 7.5:1 against flopping a set).

[Shillx]

It's rarely going to be correct to fold a pp once you've put money into the pot.

It is never correct to fold a pocket pair once you have a full small bet in the pot. If you are going to make mistakes later in the hand (like call with 33 on an AKQ board getting 10:1) then you should fold preflop, but making that call preflop in and of itself is correct.

Brad

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
It is never correct to fold a pocket pair once you have a full small bet in the pot. If you are going to make mistakes later in the hand (like call with 33 on an AKQ board getting 10:1) then you should fold preflop, but making that call preflop in and of itself is correct.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh. Well the more I know...

First of all, thanks very much to all who've replied so far - much appreciated.

Part of the problem, I think, is that I *have* read SSHE and do try to apply the principles, but because I haven't fully assimilated it yet, these principles can often seem contradictory and therefore it's hard to know which applies in any given situation. (My fault, I know).

Take, for example, the almost universal condemnation of my CC 33 in early position. What I didn't say in my post (I didn't omit it deliberately, just forgot)) was the table was 30% VPIP, which I have been taking as loose, and therefore was using the loose guidelines from SSHE (p82), which *do* say you should CC any pocket pair. So I'd be interested to hear the argument against this.

So, having got that far, the next stage was whether to call the cap. I was working on the principle that 'the pot was large therefore go for it...' rather than detailed maths and as far as I can tell, that is borderline OK (or at least, some think it is, some think it isn’t!)

When I got to the flop, in the past I would have folded, but I'm trying to move beyond the early 'safety first' days to getting more value out - looking at the 'if the pot is large, there's got to be a very good reason to fold' principle (and Ed Miller's 'crushing micro' post). Quite happy to accept I got this hand wrong - that's why I posted it, because it seemed to me to pinpoint my difficulty. Basically, I know it’s good to exploit the value in a hand, and to do that you can risk bets in a large pot that will not come off every time, but when they do, they make up for all the losses. I’m still trying to understand where the line between EV+ and EV- comes in such circumstances and your comments have helped a lot in that.

In the end, FWIW, CO had KK… and I still don’t understand why he didn’t raise the flop.

And yes, I have been lurking for a month (old newsgroup habit – don’t post till you know what the natives are like…). It’s an excellent forum – many thanks for the helpful comments.

[Greg J]