QQ- Ugly Board

[flair1239]

Pty 5/10

Hero is UTG1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Main Villian is 65/5/1.5

PF: Hero raises, Villian Reraises, Loose Passive BB calls, Hero caps, Villian calls, BB calls

Flop: (3-players) (12.4SB) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB Checks, Hero Bets, Villian Raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Villian Calls.

Turn: (2 Players) (9BB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Bets, Villan raises, hero calls

River: (13BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero.... ____________ Planning to ___________, because ___________

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero.... ____________ Planning to ___________, because ___________

[/ QUOTE ]
(1) - Makes a fist
(2) - beat himself into a bloddy pulp
(3) - He played this hand like crap-o-la


...Sorry - couldn't resist! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[W. Deranged]

Flair,

The thing that stands out to me here is villain's low pre-flop raise percentage. If he's only raising pre-flop 5%, his raising standards are on the tight side, and I assume the same would go for his re-raising standards. Pretty much any range of reraising hands has the vast majority beating you: AA, KK, JJ, 10 10, AK, AQ, AJ, 88, KQ, KJ... etc. And we're getting pretty broad here

The only things villain could have that you want to see are 99 or the other QQ. He's not that aggressive post-flop, and so his smooth call flop-raise turn line is probably indicative of a decent hand (though he may be a frequent raiser post-flop but just be such a calling station his figs are low).

Anyway, I think a check-fold is in order here. I would certainly advocate calling had the river not been a K, but now I think against most reasonable ranges of re-raising hands from a 5% pfr you are way behind.

[flair1239]

W-

If you could back up to the flop, do you think that the 3-bet was pointless?

[crunchy1]

OK - seriously... Here's what I'm thinking about:

- 5% PFR 3-betting PF
- raising the flop and then only calling the 3-bet
- raising again on a pretty blank, non-scary turn card in a 3-way pot


I look at his post-flop aggression of 1.5 combined with his looseness and really want to call down. However, I think that we need to heavily weigh in that he 3-bet PF. The flop smooth call followed by the turn raise is a pretty strong move and not one that I usually see being a bluff. The 8 on the turn makes it tough because we've just gained 2-4 more outs and I can see the addition of the gutshot making this a call getting 12-to-1.

I think if you had simply described him as a maniac - it would be an easy call down. Since you didn't - I think it's close between a check/call and a check/fold. I'm honestly not sure how I'd handle the situation. Interesting hand.

[W. Deranged]

Flair...

Probably. I've been thinking and I can't really determine what it accomplishes. Once BB has been forced out I don't think hand protection becomes an issue. Even if you are ahead at the moment, notice that a hand like AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is running basically even right now. The 5% pfr raise statistic and the flop raise after your cap should indicate that it's quite likely you are not a favorite to be ahead. Out of position I think you should probably just call the flop raise.

On the turn, I think a reasonable line might be:

1. Check call if you pick up any outs (as occured in this situation).

2. Bet-fold if you don't (you will not be getting odds to draw to two outs).

That way you prevent giving free cards unless you have a large number of outs yourself and get better information than the pure check-call line. If you pick up outs and check-call the turn, I'd plan on seeing a showdown (bet-fold on an innoucous river card would seem right). If the turn gets checked through a river value bet is certainly in order if the river card is not an A, K, or maybe [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Nick C]

I would check and call on the river. I can't think of anything reasonable that you beat, but your opponent isn't reasonable. And it's possible that a 65/5/1.5 LAG doesn't have entirely consistent preflop raising and 3-betting standards.

I'm really expecting to be shown a better hand, though.

Once the LAG raises you on the flop (despite your preflop cap) and gets you heads-up, I think just calling down is something to consider.

You're ahead of AK/AQ (28 combos) and behind AA/KK/JJ/TT (16 combos). But AK has far more outs against you than you have against AA, and I doubt you have an equity edge on this board against the kind of range a 5 percent PFR number suggests.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
W-

If you could back up to the flop, do you think that the 3-bet was pointless?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I think if you 3b the flop and get raised on the turn, you have to let the hand go.

If his PFR is 5%, then he's probably only 3b AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK. I doubt with a 1.5 Agg, he'd raise the turn with AK when you've shown nothing but aggression.

I'd either call down after his post-flop raise, or three bet and release. I don't think you are going to get him to fold a better hand, so I'd lean toward calling him down.

Also, I think the way he's playing back at you is far uglier than the board.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Flair...

Probably. I've been thinking and I can't really determine what it accomplishes. Once BB has been forced out I don't think hand protection becomes an issue. Even if you are ahead at the moment, notice that a hand like AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is running basically even right now. The 5% pfr raise statistic and the flop raise after your cap should indicate that it's quite likely you are not a favorite to be ahead. Out of position I think you should probably just call the flop raise.

On the turn, I think a reasonable line might be:

1. Check call if you pick up any outs (as occured in this situation).

2. Bet-fold if you don't (you will not be getting odds to draw to two outs).

That way you prevent giving free cards unless you have a large number of outs yourself and get better information than the pure check-call line. If you pick up outs and check-call the turn, I'd plan on seeing a showdown (bet-fold on an innoucous river card would seem right). If the turn gets checked through a river value bet is certainly in order if the river card is not an A, K, or maybe [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

I like just calling the flop raise.

I don't like a turn bet-fold plan on a blank, though.

I don't think free cards are really that big of an issue here. Sure, we'd prefer not to give one if we're ahead. But a 1.5 aggression factor is pretty aggressive for a player who's got really marginal hands postflop as often as a 65/5 guy will. I kind of doubt he'll take a free card anyway, with overs and a gutshot. And I really don't want to give him a chance to push me off of the best hand with a turn semi-bluff raise.

After calling the flop raise, I like a check-call turn line on a blank. My second choice is bet-call.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think free cards are really that big of an issue here. Sure, we'd prefer not to give one if we're ahead. But a 1.5 aggression factor is pretty aggressive for a player who's got really marginal hands postflop as often as a 65/5 guy will. I kind of doubt he'll take a free card anyway, with overs and a gutshot. And I really don't want to give him a chance to push me off of the best hand with a turn semi-bluff raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are kind of thinking:

"Yeah, there are a lot of draws on this board, but this guy is kind of clownish, so he is less likely to be on one. But being that is is clownish, he is more likely to take a shot at me if I bet, I picked up a few possible outs, may also be best at this point and I am OOP.... so let's see the river and think about a showdown."

Am I close?