D'Agostino's antics

[Your Mom]

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If I remember correctly D'Ag had a boatload of chips and Corkins went all-in pf with basically the same amount. If you are D'Ag, do you feel good about this call, when there is a very real possibility that you are a coinflip? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I think there was real good chace JDag was a 2 to 1 fav. or a 4 to 1 fav. as well.

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Let's say he is a 3 to 1 fav using your numbers. That means he has half the chips on the table (assumption on my part) 75% of the time, giving him the win 37.5% of the time, and 25% of the time he is eliminated.

If he folds, he has 25% of chips in tourney (still assuming) and 25% chance of winning.

No opinion...just adding a consideration.

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I'm not arguing. I see a strong argument for folding. It's a big risk, but one I think you have to take or else you will get run over by someone like corkins.

[Ilovephysics]

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IIRC:
Blinds 10K-20K Ante ?

SB is second chip leader Hoyt pushes for 650K from small blind with 87o
BB is chip leader Dags with ~675K

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Ok, I'm going to attempt a bit of HoH on this... please, correct me (or simply debate) as appropriate since I'm learning, too. I'm hoping this can spark a few more educational posts than just the simple 'his move was terrible' posts..

'Reasonable' assumptions for this situation:
1) If D'ags has a mid to high pair, TT-AA, he will call.
2) No one else at the table has/had a 7, 8.
3) If D'ags has AK or AQ, he will call.
4) We won't worry about the ante just yet.
5) D'ags folds otherwise.

Hoyt seems to be up against AK, AQ, or AA-TT something like 1 in 20.

So, roughly 95% of the time Hoyt will win D'ags blinds, say +19K. (Not counting his own SB, which is still part of the pot as well and adds another +9K to 10K to the bottom line below...)

Against pocket pairs, Hoyt's hand is about 20%. Against AQ and AK, about 40%.. I know, these are high.

2.5% of the time, he'll be up against AK/AQ.
1% of those times he'll win +670K, or say +6.7K.
1.5% he will go broke, -$650K, or say -9.8K.

Against the pocket pairs for the other 2.5%, it is +3.3K and -13K.

Bottom line add it up under these conditions, seems to be about +6K before ante, his saving of his SB, etc.. This doesn't mean I agree with the move as optimal, but It doesn't seem to be a move that will lose money. Also, perhaps as was mentioned earlier, Hoyt does stuff like this just to screw with people figuring it is a relatively low-risk that he'll be out of the tournament (e.g., perhaps 3.5% he finishes in 4th)

I am assuming someone can do something similar for D'ags and show he was very much in the plus territory as well.

Again, feel free to tell me where I screwed up.

[gumpzilla]

Disclaimer: I haven't looked at your math.

The reason that the move is bad in isolation is that pushing for 30 BB's or so doesn't really make the BB more likely to fold than if you bet 3.5 or 4 BBs. So if you just hope to take it down preflop, you're gaining very little (you're leaving no room for resteals) by betting more and risking lots by pushing. With 87o, he wants to take it down preflop.

If you make Hoyt's stack smaller, then pushing becomes a stronger play. This is because a) he risks less, b) a small raise will put so much of his stack in that he gets stuck to the hand. However, with 30 BBs there's no need to push. Since he is a "name" player, it's possible that he does this pretty rarely with garbage and occasionally with KK-AA, and that this might increase his chances of getting paid off. However, I think the situations where AA-KK gets paid here are when BB has a big hand anyway, where you have a relatively good chance of stacking him, so the payoff of this as an image play seems dicey at best. So it looks like a dumb move.

[flo]

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Hellmuth gets butchered for laying on the floor against Leonidas, but that was nothing compared to D'Agostino's childish move.

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[texman]

It has been a long time since I saw it. I didn't think it was that bad. I guess someone said Hoyt asked for the chips during the count.
No big deal.

I can't remember how the hand played out though - i think dag got a bad beat shortly thereafter so he would have lost his chips either way. At least dag's has some big finishes to show for previous efforts and hasn't been bad beat out of everything.

[Ilovephysics]

yes, I would certainly agree that he probably did not have to risk his whole stack... it seems unusual (but, maybe every so often this is a good thing because it is so unusual)... As you are alluding to, I'm guessing he could have bet say 120K and most of the time it would have accomplished the same goal... then again, maybe if he bets 120K, it makes the steal look obvious or invites D'ags to push all-in.. But in general, I'd agree with you... all I was trying to probe was if the play actually makes money.. I suppose even dumb plays can make money, but if they do make money, I suppose they are not as dumb as other plays..

[billyjex]

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If I remember correctly D'Ag had a boatload of chips and Corkins went all-in pf with basically the same amount. If you are D'Ag, do you feel good about this call, when there is a very real possibility that you are a coinflip? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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i'm sure jdags figured Hoyt would not open push for 25xbb with a hand that was good, that was anything TT had to worry about.

[drewjustdrew]

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Another consideration is that this is a major tournament, not a party SnG. What I mean is, you're going to be playing with the same lineups every time, and if everyone knows that you're gonna fold everything but aces and kings in this spot your table image is horrible and everyone will take advantage.

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So no one will ever put you on a bluff resteal, or a simple fold? I forget if there were a couple raises or just a blind steal attempt.

The hole card cam is not used by the players.

[mblax10]

It's been a while since I've seen this. I thought Corkins asked to re-count D'Agostino's chips 3 or 4 times to try and get the 1 last chip John had, which put John over the edge.

It just wasn't John's day, if Hoyt folds instead of trying to steal, John goes broke on the next hand. His Kings vs. Chip leaders Queens and another guy's Jacks. Jack & Queen on the flop. Don't see how D'Ags escapes that hand with any chips.

[billyjex]

wrong. if hoyt folds, the flop/turn/river are never dealt. the dealer shuffles the cards differently and that hand never comes about.