better to induce the bluff c-r, or river bet?

geormiet · #1 07-01-2005, 04:08 AM

5 handed 15/30

BB is tricky and aggressive, and fairly stupid. For instance , when he starts betting, he will continue betting to the river regardless of the board, whether it be with top pair, bottom pair, or a bluff.

I raise with A6s utg. Only the BB calls. Flop is A99, no flush draw. check, bet, call.

Turn is a blank. Should I bet, planning on calling down a checkraise, or check behind, planning on calling a riverbet?

Certainly the first option is a higher variance route than the second, but is it more profitable? Or is it simply entirely opponent/situation dependant?

mmcd · #2 07-01-2005, 04:26 AM

It depends on how often he will be bluffing when he checkraises the turn. If his turn checkraise will be a bluff greater than ~30% of the time (I suspect this is the case here given the player description, and since it went check-call/check, he'll be raising the turn almost all the time), it's better to bet.

Lmn55d · #3 07-01-2005, 05:04 AM

where are you getting this 30% number from?

Jeff W · #4 07-01-2005, 05:06 AM

I bet to induce the bluff c/r. I like the chance that I'll win 3 BB from a dead hand against this opponent.

wheelz · #5 07-01-2005, 05:12 AM

Situation dependent for me I think.. if I've been checking the turn lately I'd probably check, if people have been playing back at me on the turn lately I'd probably bet.

mmcd · #6 07-01-2005, 05:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
where are you getting this 30% number from?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since he'll be checkraising virtually all of the time, by betting, you're laying 3BB (as opposed to to 1BB by checking behind/calling the river) that you have the best hand. If his checkraise will be a bluff (assuming he always follows thru on the river) more than 1/3 of the time, you'd be giving up value by not betting and laying the 3 bets you're ahead.

I rudimentarily lopped off the 3.33% for the times he has a 9 and you suck out on the river and gain an extra 2-3 bets when he isn't bluffing.

The real number is probably less than 30% because sometimes he'll have planned on making a move on the turn but will just give up after you check behind.

Lmn55d · #7 07-01-2005, 05:50 AM

thank you.

Anders_G · #8 07-01-2005, 06:45 AM

I like checking behind. There is virtually no hand in the world that can draw out on you and your turn-check is likely to induce a riverbluff or, given a check, makes it more likely for villain to call your riverbet.

KidPokerX · #9 07-01-2005, 08:14 AM

I agree with Jeff and Wheelz.
I think it's important to induce bluffs from your opponents that are common bluffers, but also to realize when it would be more useful to bet out (even to induce a bluff c/r) when your opponent is more likely to do so. So all in all, it's all player dependant ... what wheelz said.