Bubblenomics in action.

Turk · #1 06-26-2005, 02:46 AM

Party $22

Had villian marked as very tight, he got a big stack early on and and played very few hands since, he had folded his SB to me the last 4-5 hands. Here he pushed on me and I had a real hand, but not one I was willing to call with here.

Long story short, he had K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...nothing, but I am begining to see how powerfull well timed aggression is on the bubble, how putting the opponent with the most to lose...not the one with the least to lose to the decision is so imperative.
This is common knowledge around here of course but I guess it took me a while to really understand this concept.

What would you need to have for a call here...QQ+?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t865)
MP (t1950)
Button (t350)
SB (t2315)
Hero (t2520)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t400, 1 fold, Button calls t350 (All-In), SB raises to t2000, 1 fold, UTG calls t465 (All-In).

Flop: (t3615) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t3615) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3615) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3615

Matt Walker · #2 06-26-2005, 03:06 AM

Nah I need way less than QQ+. Look at the stacks. If you win this, you can easily steal the next two hands the vast majority of the time so thats worth at least 600 chips. Anything that is ahead of his range I'm calling with and that breaks down to 88+ A8+ maybe KQ if I felt lucky. The A8 because allmost everyone is pushing any ace there and A8 is in the middle.

Benholio · #3 06-26-2005, 03:19 AM

I don't agree with calling mediocre aces and medium pairs here. You don't need to get mixed up in this with the next largest stack, and another player already in the pot.

If you fold, then either:
-SB wins: you are 4-handed, 4th place has < 1xBB
-UTG wins: 5-handed, chipleader, good stealing position

Both of these are pretty good spots to be in.

I stick to a pretty tight calling range here.. maybe jacks.

GrekeHaus · #4 06-26-2005, 03:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nah I need way less than QQ+. Look at the stacks. If you win this, you can easily steal the next two hands the vast majority of the time so thats worth at least 600 chips. Anything that is ahead of his range I'm calling with and that breaks down to 88+ A8+ maybe KQ if I felt lucky. The A8 because allmost everyone is pushing any ace there and A8 is in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would consider calling this if UTG were already all in, but as it is, if you call, UTG will probably fold seeing that there's a good chance for him to get ITM. SB is the only person who can bust you and has already pushed all-in into a pot where there is going to be a show down. At the very least he has two over cards and you'll have to dodge a whole bunch of overs from him and the button to win this pot. Why mix it up here and risk your good stack?

If you fold, UTG will almost certainly call and if the big stack wins now YOU will be ITM with a very decent stack.

I think I would fold everything but AA and KK here.

Edit...I misread stack sizes, so I guess he can't bust you. I would go with JJ+ here. If he had you slightly covered, I would stand by my original analysis.

Myst · #5 06-26-2005, 03:25 AM

Id probably be JJ+ here due to the stack sizes, QQ+ at the $109s or higher.

UTG+1 is a moron. Well timed? Ha!

Nottom · #6 06-26-2005, 04:21 AM

If I fold here its as much because I'm worried about UTG limping for half his stack as the fact that I think I may be behind the SB.