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#1
06-16-2005, 01:00 PM
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Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
About 40 left till ITM. UTG seemed reasonable, but I did not put him on the big hand. He limped a few times with blinds at 200 and 300 without a monster.Button just moved to this table few hands ago.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) converter BB (t7819) UTG (t10470) UTG+1 (t4138) MP1 (t8592) MP2 (t5972) MP3 (t18420) CO (t3043) Button (t7879) Hero (t7192) Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls t300, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls t300, Hero completes, BB checks. Flop: (t1200) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero??? Can You tell me what is the play and why. I will post results later. Thanks. 
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#3
06-16-2005, 02:35 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
I would bet pot here. There is always a chance that someone hit their flush, but you can still fill up. Also it is more likely that someone will chase you with a single diamond. It is best not to give any free cards in this situation.
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#4
06-16-2005, 02:43 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
Lead out for about 1000 on the flop. If someone raises you, push. You are almost certainly ahead, and if not, you have 17 outs (7+10) to catch up. (edit: should clear this up. 7 outs once and 10 outs once.)
If you are flatcalled on the flop, push any non-diamond turn.
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#5
06-16-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
I would bet only 600 on the flop to make it appear that you are semi-bluffing a diamond and to induce a raise from a Q or two pair and then you push all-in. If you're only called on the flop, push a non-diamond on the turn.
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#6
06-16-2005, 02:58 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
[ QUOTE ]
Lead out for pot [/ QUOTE ] I 100% agree.
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#7
06-16-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
I would bet only 600 on the flop to make it appear that you are semi-bluffing a diamond and to induce a raise from a Q or two pair and then you push all-in. If you're only called on the flop, push a non-diamond on the turn.
No, that's not what your bet will accomplish, it will give someone with a big diamond 3-1 pots odds to call. Bet the pot here. With 4 players in the hand no one moves in with just a Q with that board.
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#8
06-16-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
33 is probably the best hand. 7% someone has 2 diamonds, < 1% they have TT, QQ is unlikely.
With such a coordinated board, it's likely someone bets it. I c/r for the size of the pot. Against hands that can continue, you are about ~2:1, such as AdJx. I move in on any non-diamond turn.
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#10
06-16-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: Empire $15000 hand. What is You line?
[ QUOTE ]
No, that's not what your bet will accomplish, it will give someone with a big diamond 3-1 pots odds to call. Bet the pot here. With 4 players in the hand no one moves in with just a Q with that board. [/ QUOTE ] You're right that my bet of 1/2 the pot will give someone with a diamond 3-1 odds to call, but I still think its the right play when looking at the big picture. I wouldn't say that a Q necessarily moves in, but I 100% think that a queen will often raise enough to make it incorrect (with respect to immediate odds) for a lone diamond to call. Say you bet the pot on the flop and are flat called and a diamond hits the turn. What do you do then (besides wishing you bet less on the flop)?
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