AA v KK bustout and Inflection Points - not Bad Beat Post I swear

[LearnedfromTV]

I'll go down like this every time no regrets.

I don't have the hand history but can recap pretty accurately:

Pokerroom 20K guaranteed. 19 left, Hero with about 175K 3rd overall. 1st and 2nd both w/ 200K at this table. About 1.6 million chips in play.

Blinds 4K/8K. Hero has KK in the Co, someone raises to 25K, Hero raises to 80K, Button who has me covered, goes Allin. First raiser folds (later says had JJ - internet deck!).

Back to me. Pretty sure I can't fold. calling 95K to win 380K (roughly, not sure exactly), just on the pot odds if there's ANY chance he has the other KK or QQ, I have to call. So I call. He has AA. Faceless board. Too bad so sad I lose.

But let's say I know for a fact he has aces. I think I still call, even though I'm not quite getting odds. Here's why.

If I fold, yes I'm still alive, with a medium stack, but I'm pretty close to back grinding away with the allin or folders trying to squeak to the final table, especially with the 5K/10K level close and moving up quickly from there as we go hand for hand. Chances of winning/Final 3 - reasonable, but I better catch some cards somewhere along the way. More likely I finish tenth or something.

If I call and hit my K, I take total control of the table (which that (censored) with the aces better have done.) I become twice as big as number two and could easily get to FT with a third of the chips. Chances of winning - good, Final 3- almost guaranteed.

Or to adjust it a little and make it realistic, lets say I'm not positive he has AA, because you never can be 100%, but I only raised to 70K, so my pot odds are a little worse and I probably shouldn't call even given the slim chance he has QQ or KK. I think I still call.

This is an inflection point. Not a "keep my tourney alive" inflection point, but an "in it to win it" inflection point.

Yes? No?

[jgodin]

1) pots odds not right
2) no implied odds
3) Still 10+ BB left if you fold

I'm not a great player, but I'd have to think I was a good enough player to come back from 100k with blinds 4/8k than to put all my money in with KK vs. known AA to be in the tournamnet at all.

In the words of Bill Walton..."throw it down, young man, throw it down"

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
1) pots odds not right
2) no implied odds
3) Still 10+ BB left if you fold

I'm not a great player, but I'd have to think I was a good enough player to come back from 100k with blinds 4/8k than to put all my money in with KK vs. known AA to be in the tournamnet at all.

In the words of Bill Walton..."throw it down, young man, throw it down"

[/ QUOTE ]

um, no. His opp does not have AA enough to fold here. Ever. Sorry.

[LearnedfromTV]

I guess it's two separate questions.

1. Can I lay KK it down in the real world?

2. Can I lay it down in the hypothetical world where I know he has AA?

To 1. I say no and I'd love to hear someone argue for yes.

2. Is contrived but worth debating, I think. With that big a pot, is it worth taking some negative chip EV and the risk of busting for the chance at that monster stack? It's not just calling "95 K" to win "380K"/break out your calculators to find out is this worth it. This is a reasonable, though a bit -cEV, shot at nearly one quarter of the chips in play with 19 people left.

[Mackas]

I'm going to hijack this slightly with a very similar situation and again its not a bad beat story but something that's been bothering me:

Stars $350,000 guaranteed, ten left and I am third in chips with approx 630k. Chipleader at my table with about 1.4m. 5 handed and blinds plus antes = 70k. Before this hand we haven't mixed it up together but in last few rounds he has come back over the top of an EP raiser to take pot uncontested and showed a couple of medium aces (AT was best) and on one occasion KK, other times hasn't shown which leads me to belive his hands were worse than the ones he showed. People are not mixing it up with average hands as people are trying to limp to final table and he's taking advantage of it. Although I have enough chips to hurt him on an all in it would still leave him in 3rd chip posn even if he lost said all in to me.

I pick up KK UTG and raise to about 160,000. Folds to chipleader on button who reraises 120,000 to 280,000. My tuought process goes as follows:

1. 510,000 in pot, i have about 480,000 left in front of me. I can call leaving me 360,000 with 630,000 in pot and see if an ace comes before committing. Downside is I risk folding best hand on flop out of position if an ace comes and he has smaller pair.

2. He knows I can't mix this up without a premium hand and I have been making my fair share of pre-flop riases since the table has tightened up. He may be raising with a weakish hand hoping to push me off anything but AA or KK. Against that his reraise is a min reraise which is slightly worrying but still does not scream aces in this situation.

3. The range of hands he has been raising with have been shown to be liberal including medium aces.

4. Five handed KK is too powerful to throw away against someone raising lierally and who has a stack more than twice mine so is not afraid to mix it up with me.

5. If I reraise all in he is getting about two and a half ot one on his call. Good odds for him but he can still fold and stay well ahead of the pack. I want to discourage a weak ace from playing with me as much as possible and want to avoid making the disastrous error of folding the best hand on the flop if an ace flops.

6. 10th pays $3600, 9th over 6,000 with a min increase of 5000 per posn after that. I could switch the computer off and probably finish at least 7th. Even if he calls but has only a weak ace I am still not a massive favourite and am risking going out of the whole thing here.

7. Underlying all of this I admit is a bit of I have KK and this is going to be very hard to fold and to be honest given the reraises he has shown I am not overly concerned about AA. Rather what I am considering most is whether I want to take KK up against a bare ace in this situation (dramatically escalating money with each posn up the ladder and a healthy stack).

8. I want to maximise chances of winning the whole thing or as much as possible. Decide KK is most likely in front 5 handed vs a liberal reraiser with a bigstack (chipleader). I'm prepared to take the race against a bare ace. I have no huge indicator that he has aces and as such regard this as the most likely worse scenario.

I push.

He has AA, Q high board, bye bye me.

I don't want commiseration and equally don't want results driven cries of "fold fold". I would be grateful if anyone could comment on how correct the thought process was and what they would have thought or done differently. It can seem striaghtforward but this was a big decision and I've been second guessing it since. I still think I was right but have a slight doubt that a better player might have got away. If so I would sure as hell like to learn how.

Thanks in advance.

Mackas

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Final 3- almost guaranteed.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is not remotely true.

you definitely call happily in the real world, but you have to fold if he flips up AA.

[Kyo Souma II]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) pots odds not right
2) no implied odds
3) Still 10+ BB left if you fold

I'm not a great player, but I'd have to think I was a good enough player to come back from 100k with blinds 4/8k than to put all my money in with KK vs. known AA to be in the tournamnet at all.

In the words of Bill Walton..."throw it down, young man, throw it down"

[/ QUOTE ]

um, no. His opp does not have AA enough to fold here. Ever. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time his opponent has AA when the two cards his opponent holds are both aces.

-kyo

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) pots odds not right
2) no implied odds
3) Still 10+ BB left if you fold

I'm not a great player, but I'd have to think I was a good enough player to come back from 100k with blinds 4/8k than to put all my money in with KK vs. known AA to be in the tournamnet at all.

In the words of Bill Walton..."throw it down, young man, throw it down"

[/ QUOTE ]

um, no. His opp does not have AA enough to fold here. Ever. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time his opponent has AA when the two cards his opponent holds are both aces.

-kyo

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh SNAP!

[Jax_Grinder]

Excellent 599th post.

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent 599th post.

[/ QUOTE ]

is the 599th post a milestone of some sort?

or where you just saying it was a bad post?