Folding AA on the turn, Inside the Rocks Mind

jimymat · #1 05-03-2005, 12:39 AM

Party Poker, NL 600, blinds 3 and 6.

Preflop: hero is mp w/ AA
2 callers, hero raises to $25, 3 callers.
Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG bets $15, 2 callers, hero raises to $75, 2
callers, 1 fold.
Turn: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG bets $498 (all in), 1 fold, pot is $838

Pot laying me 1.6-1 or roughly 3-2

Into the think tank. Opponent is 50% VPIP and a calling station. So possible holdings go..
AQ KQ KK QJ JJ J10 all of which I have beat.

QQ 1010 99 Q10 KJ all of which I'm screwed with 1 to come

Figure in 12% bluff or semi bluff with either draw and I'm 3-2 favorite. Giving the VPIP I figure Im a dog right now. Guys been cold calling any 2 paints and the draws are scaring me. I fold the Aces cause I reason that he's hit two pair or trips. Bad fold as far as odds are concerned but I feel like I can wait for a better spot.
Results:
<font color="white"> </font> opponent shows Q J offsuit with 13 outs and 28% chance of hitting. Comments?

EverettKings · #2 05-03-2005, 12:42 AM

When a calling station shoves $500 into the pot, doesn't that strike you? Unless he's trying to shut out draws (and even then you only MIGHT be ahead), you're likely drawing slim. He knows you like your hand, I doubt he expects to get you off of it.

And this should probably go in the mid-high stakes forum, but since the hand is with a 50% VPIP guy, it works here.

-Kings

jimymat · #3 05-03-2005, 12:45 AM

That's kind of what my gut said and why I went against the odds and folded. Like you said even if Im a favorite it's a slight % and his draws are scaring me.

Garland · #4 05-03-2005, 03:37 AM

Barring any for maniacal reads, this is a no-brainer fold.

Board produces way too many possibilities for hands to beat you (open-ended got there, two pair, set) and he's risking all his money vs. two opponents on the turn. He called a healthy pre-flop raise, your flop raise and still leads all-in on the turn? Give this guy credit for a hand and lay your one big pair down. So you got a gift and he showed you he's a semi-bluffer. You'll pick him off on later hands where you have a more solid holding according to the board with a more solid read.

Garland