Massive downswing sanity check - two tourney histories

[buddybudrow]

Maybe a bit off subject, but here it goes -

About a month ago I started tracking and calculating my ITM/ROI for each day individually. This has helped me mentally to weather bad runs. When I have a bad day or two, the daily stats make it easier to put it behind me. Even if I have a really bad day (or few days) I can look back at my daily data and see the good days as well. I'm a 20%+ ROI player at the $11. (I know, not that great for $11s) Here's an example of my stats for this week -

Sat ROI 45% ITM 47% 15 SNGs
Sun ROI 21% ITM 54% 24 SNGs
Mon ROI 37% ITM -1% 43 SNGs
Tue ROI -83% ITM 6% 16 SNGs (not a typo)
Wed ROI 27% ITM 40% 20 SNGs

As you can see I had a horrible run over Mon and Tue. A 15 buy in drop over 59 SNGs. It was pretty brutal. Lots of losing with the best hand, running into monsters on the bubble when pushing, etc. Keeping the daily data allows me to see and remember the past days where I was at or above my averages. As a result when I hit a downswing I don't immediately start questioning my game. In this case I went into Wed with the attitude that I could easily rattle off an above average day because I can see in my daily data that I am more than capable of doing just that. Tracking cumulative stats are just as important, but I think if you only use them, your good runs tend to get buried in the data. You only notice when you ROI/ITM and bankroll are plummetting during a bad streak. The daily data also help you see that the days when you kill are not representative of your averages and are truly unsustainable, as is mentioned in this forum all the time.

This may be something everyone is already doing, but I thought I would share in case some of you aren't doing it. Like I said, it has really helped me mentally.

[Voltron87]

your sample size is pathetic.

[buddybudrow]

As I said, this was just an example to illustrate my point. My 20% ROI is based on almost 1000 $11 SNGs. I wasn't making any claims about my talent or lack thereof.

[Route246]

Downswings are a part of poker. If you think your play is solid and there are no leaks, then just play through it. If you can honestly say that you've made no mistakes, no steam moves and have always made the correct value bets (see Harington's book) at the appropriate times, then it's just a bad streak. I've had one run for over a year where every big hand got no action or snapped off, and I don't usually slow play or try to set elaborate traps, either.

Are you prone to try to slow play or trap? I've found for me and from what I observe of others, that's the biggest loser in SNG's online. Just play the hands for what they represent, bet them strongly and be happy when you have AA and everyone throws up. Just last night, I had AA UTG and opened with 3 BB's and let 44 on the BB come in and catch a 4 on the river. That's OK, however it tests my mettle and it can have subtle effects on how I play right after this. I did have AJ-offsuit soon after and was tempted to reraise with it in middle position but I caught myself and dumped the hand and saved my stack for later battles. Little laydowns like that go a long way to changing your downswings. I took second in this SNG instead of going out sixth, just because I dumped AJ-offsuit in this case.

I don't know how many years you've been playing but long downswings are a part of the game and will test your character like nothing else. It's a very lonely feeling because you're on your own and nobody can help you out of it. You might be on top of the world one day and be under pond scum the next. Every cash-out should be cherished for what it is because it might be your last for awhile. You have to think this way or if you do get on a hot streak, you might not capitalize on it and maximize your return.

Also, don't expect for sympathy from fellow poker players. They all want your cash and that's the nature of the game. If they've been at it for awhile, they've been there and done that so they may feel a little sorry for you, they certainly wouldn't want to contribute to your exit from the downswing.

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I'm currently at the 30 buyin point in a downswing covering approximately 100 tourneys. That's -28% ROI. Now, I'm almost positive that my play in these tourneys will not be earning me a -28% ROI long term, judging by the play of the other people in the games, but I am getting very worried about my play. My first 250 games at the $215s have been very swing-riddled, I started off running well for about 80 tourneys, then dropped about 18 buyins in 30 tourneys before having a massive 40-buyin upswing over 40 tourneys. From then I ran break even for 60ish before beginning the downswing where I currently find myself, -18 buyins over 25 tourneys. I don't think I've tilted on my downswings, but I'm not used to my results being this swingy over a sample of even this small size.

My ROI over these 250 is around 6% after this last downswing. I feel like I've been running into an inordinate number of good hands while stealing blinds of late, leading to tons of bubble finishes. I also think I've been taking more than my share of nasty beats, and rarely winning the crucial coinflips, but this could easily be selective memory. I told myself I was going to post the next two tourneys I played, to make sure that I'm not doing anything horribly wrong over and over and over again. They both seemed pretty standard, and that may be a good thing, because things that I think are standard that are actually wrong may well be bringing me down.

Also, if any of the 215 regulars would like to share any notes on my leaks that they might have, I'd really appreciate it, although I obviously understand not doing so. Educating the fish is -EV [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. I'm aware that I make the occasional gaffe, but as far as I know there's nothing systematically wrong with my play, if anyone can point out an issue like this I'd be incredibly grateful. My handle is StinkyTater on Empire.

Well, without further ado, onto the tourneys.

Indy

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