$55 early play - post flop question

[pooh74]

But had villain bet, say 100-200 chips, to induce a call, I would have been worried more.

This is sort of an aside, but this is common thinking I imagine...so when I am put to the test on the river sometimes and its checked to me, if i have the hand (know Im good) I will just push, and now sometimes if I want to bluff Ill try and find that perfect 1/2 pot value bet to induce a fold...Just sometimes I try this and it works well...not all the time...

<font color="white"> I bluff with 1/2 pot bets on saturdays between 4-5pm and monday mornings. I push with a nut flush on river any nite after 9pm. </font> <font color="white"> </font>

[Scuba Chuck]

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FWIW, I think the river check is the only option here, given stack sizes. (i.e.: you can't block this, but if you had bet 2/3 pot on flop and 1/2 pot on turn this becomes an option)


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Thanks, the way this played out, I think the river check is the best move.

Walk me through your alternative. Let's say I bet t45 on the flop, and just villain calls here. So on the turn, the flop is t150 instead of t180 (which I don't think is a big difference). When I bet 1/2 pot t75 on the turn
A) I'm still giving the flush draw poor odds to call (ok, good idea)
B) I induce a potential reraise as I think this shows potential weakness.

Do you think that if I was going to get a reraise on the turn, that my bet size is insignificant?
What is the difference in perception of villain if I bet 1/2 pot vs pot? Especially now that a King hit the board.

In general, I see your point. If I am reading villain right, and because this is a tournament (finite chip count), I don't need to build this pot so big against the flush draw.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips.

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Just for arguments sake, is it better to save 50-75 chips 20% of the time, or to gain 50-75 chips 80% of the time?

[hummusx]

I think if you bet exactly half the pot, you may be tempting a reraise where otherwise you wouldn't see it. In general I'd tend to go a little higher, like maybe 100, which would probably be perceived less as weak and more as 'I want you to call', while offering slightly worse odds.

[hummusx]

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I think you would have ended up with the same number of chips in the end, but if a club had fallen on the end you could have saved yourself 50-75 chips.

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Just for arguments sake, is it better to save 50-75 chips 20% of the time, or to gain 50-75 chips 80% of the time?

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The answer is obvious, of course, but what are you basing your percentages on? The assumption that he is always on the flush draw, that he never hits anything else, and that he always calls incorrectly? What about the times that he reraises? If you bet 180 and he reraises all in, what are you going to do? What if he had the king and just called? What if a T had falled on the end? You can't do the simple 80/20 hit the flush or not thing...

[Scuba Chuck]

Fair enough.

[ColdestCall]

You made a great read here Scuba, and really maximized your value by inducing the bluff.

That being said, I do not think I would have played the hand the same way (perhaps to my detriment). It has been my experience at the 55s that most players have some rudimentary idea of what they are doing, and won't limp under the gun with a hand like 10-4 suited. They also usually won't flat call off 25% of their stack chasing a flush draw. And, even though it screams busted flush draw bluff, I also have seen that all-in bet on the end mean that I am beat an alarming percentage of the time. I probably would have put UTG on a hand like K-J or K-Q of clubs here, but now I am starting to see why this is wrong. The key is the two 3's on the flop. UTG really shouldn't have a 3, but BB checker could easily have a three. Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it. He will flat call with a monster, like 7,7, but he won't move in on the end with it, he'll try to get value. He'll raise with overpairs like 8,8 or 9,9 or 10,10, to ensure no one comes in behind him, and possibly to find out right then and there if BB has trips. When he calls again on the turn, it means that he did not hit the king. we've already figured out he doesn't just have two overs, so if he hits the king it has to be suited. Hitting top pair on the turn like that and having a flush draw is an irresistable raising situation for most players, and, for those players who wouldn't raise there, they would also not move in on the river. The nine on the end isn't particularly threatening - UTG could be holding 9-10 of clubs, but probably would be content to check it down, or make a smallish bet.

So when I get down into this hand, this all-in on the end is easily a bluff a large enough percentage of the time to make a call correct here, particularly as you have plenty of chips left if you are wrong.

Good post, great call.

[Scuba Chuck]

Coldcall, very succinct. I wish I was a good writer. You very much pointed out the rationality of the play of this hand. And furthermore, why I felt that the river options
A) check through (especially if he has a K or 9)
B) a raise to induce a call
C) an allin bluff
were an easy (not completely though) read. Thanks.
Scuba

[Unarmed]

You increased your bet size from the flop (45 -&gt; 75) which generally indicates you want a call. If Villain is willing to shove on the turn then I'll give him credit for the K club and muck.

Its just a tough bluff for him to run given he has no idea what your hand is, and whether or not the K is actually a scare card. Furthermore, the if VIllain is the type that likes to semi-bluff raise, he'd have done it on the flop with two cards to come to try and buy a free turn. Having checked the flop through I think it's pretty unlikely he raises the turn on any hand which you beat.

EDIT: BTW as I mentioned I think a block is pointless on the river here unless Villain is the type to make overbets on the river with the goods. From my experience, this isn't the case against most players.

Absent bet sizes, (and I'm nitpicking there) I think you played it perfectly.

[adanthar]

I very rarely call here, but the pot is much smaller in any event because I see no real need to bet this turn.

Generally, for every T4s yokel there's two guys who play 88 this way, and the yokel is almost always happy to pick up his free card if you check to him.

Also, if an A hit, I really hope you wouldn't fold. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]