I have a sickness - need advice.

[go fish]

I'm a novice, or I suppose advanced novice, at NLHE. I gave up on ring games and only play tourneys, the 5.50 and 11 SnGs mostly, with some other low buy-in MTTs thrown in, so I'm used to a certain degree of craziness at the tables. This is my favorite 2+2 forum because 95% of the poker I play is STTs. I've read Super/System, Theory of Poker, Sklansky & Malmuth's HE for Advanced Players, and Harrington on HE. I went through a pretty good streak after reading Harrington and playing his way, finishing over half the time in the money, on the bubble almost all other times. I wasn't always set up at the end playing as conservatively as Harrington recommends, so I modified my strategy a bit (remember, this is the 5.50s and 11s), playing a few more hands in the first couple of levels, generally limping with so-so hands when I could - pretty much anything on the button, almost anything in the SB, suited connectors and suspect hands like KQo and KJo MP and LP, limping in with cards with one or two separators when I could get away with it. That seemed to do me well, and I had a really great streak going for a while. But now I seem to have developed a pretty nasty sickness: I push when I know I'm beat. I need help trying to figure out what's going on in a general, theoretical, overarching sort of way, and also with trying to change the details of what I'm doing.

I understand that the experts here will bring up variance and say that just because I've gone out in a certain way in my last 10 tourneys doesn't mean that this is really a trend or anything more than a blip on the long-term chart. I appreciate the fact that people here are knowledgeable enough to be able to tell me that; the tremendous knowledge on this forum is the reason I'm posting here, hoping that there could be something more that can be said than simple variance.

Here are examples of how I've gone out in my last 5 tourneys - the 5 before these were along similar lines:

Hand #1:
SnG, 7 at the table, I'm at about 900, BB is 60.
Dealt QQ in MP.
One limper to me, I raise to 160, folds to the button (with 1800 chips, very aggressive and semi-tight), who raises to 260.
All fold to me, I call. Pot 670.
Flop T 7 3 rainbow.
I know I'm beat but I push. I was thinking stop n go when I called that reraise. This hand actually made me giggle because a Q came on the turn, but then of course a K came on the river, making the set for the villain.

Hand #2:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm down to ~500 from a tremendously bad beat and steady attrition due to no playable cards. BB is 60.
Dealt Tc 4c in BB.
2 limpers (MP & LP), SB folds. I check. Pot is 210.
Flop has 2 clubs, no other coordination, J high.
I check. MP bets 60, LP folds, I call.
Turn is a low club. I check. MP bets 60.
I know I'm beat but I push.

Hand #3:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm at ~600, BB is 100.
Dealt 99 in CO.
4 limpers, I raise to 200, all but one of the limpers calls. They all have at least 3x the chips I do. Pot is ~800.
Flop 8d 7s 2d.
Checked around to me.
I know I'm beat but I push.

Hand #4:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm down to ~300, BB is 100.
Dealt 66 on button - best hand I've seen all tourney.
2 folds to me, I know I'm beat but I push.
SB folds, but it was the maniac in the BB, chip leader, that I knew would call, no matter what he had (it was 6s 7s).

Hand #5:
MTT, $10 buy-in satellite for $100 tourney, 22 of 36 left, top 3 pay out, 9 at the table. Everyone is playing tight. I am up to 1900 (started with 1000). BB is 30.
Dealt KK in the BB.
2 folds, MP limps (2100), LP1 limps (chip leader, 4900), 3 folds, SB folds, I raise to 100 (hoping to get one of the two limpers to fold).
MP and LP both call. Pot 315.
Flop 7 5 3 rainbow.
I bet 200.
MP raises 500 to 700.
LP folds.
I know I'm beat but I push. It is so obvious that this guy was coming in with a low pair and hit his set. In fact, this hand is really a microcosm of my life, and the epitome of what I mean when I say "I know I'm beat but I push." It's almost as if I'm too stubborn to accept that I'm beat, or I'm incapable of allowing people to get aggressive on me when I get to a certain point. Like when someone reraises me when I actually have something that wins 9 times out of 10, I can't accept it. It's very odd that in all 5 of those hands, I KNEW that I was beat. I am actually getting pretty good at putting people on hands. Apparently I'm not good at accepting that I know what they have, though. I was not surprised in any of those hands when the villain's cards were turned over - I was pretty much exactly right about all of them (okay, hand #3 is actually a trick and nothing more than a bad beat, but still, I knew I was going to have a bad luck outcome).

It's a sickness. What should I do? I know that part of my problem is that a string of suspect beats, and seeing bozos at these low buy-in tables who play any paint card (and win), is affecting what I've developed to be a sound general strategy. At least I think it's sound.

So lay it on me. Bring the psychology, bring the poker expertise, bring the math. Is there anything I should be changing, anything I should be thinking about doing? Besides getting off the 5.50s and 11s, that is.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Fold if you know you're beat.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]




Hand #1:
SnG, 7 at the table, I'm at about 900, BB is 60.
Dealt QQ in MP.
One limper to me, I raise to 160, folds to the button (with 1800 chips, very aggressive and semi-tight), who raises to 260.
All fold to me, I call. Pot 670.
Flop T 7 3 rainbow.


Hand #2:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm down to ~500 from a tremendously bad beat and steady attrition due to no playable cards. BB is 60.
Dealt Tc 4c in BB.
2 limpers (MP & LP), SB folds. I check. Pot is 210.
Flop has 2 clubs, no other coordination, J high.
I check. MP bets 60, LP folds, I call.
Turn is a low club. I check. MP bets 60.
I know I'm beat but I push.

Hand #3:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm at ~600, BB is 100.
Dealt 99 in CO.
4 limpers, I raise to 200, all but one of the limpers calls. They all have at least 3x the chips I do. Pot is ~800.
Flop 8d 7s 2d.
Checked around to me.
I know I'm beat but I push.

Hand #4:
SnG, 5 at the table, I'm down to ~300, BB is 100.
Dealt 66 on button - best hand I've seen all tourney.
2 folds to me, I know I'm beat but I push.
SB folds, but it was the maniac in the BB, chip leader, that I knew would call, no matter what he had (it was 6s 7s).

Hand #5:
MTT, $10 buy-in satellite for $100 tourney, 22 of 36 left, top 3 pay out, 9 at the table. Everyone is playing tight. I am up to 1900 (started with 1000). BB is 30.
Dealt KK in the BB.
2 folds, MP limps (2100), LP1 limps (chip leader, 4900), 3 folds, SB folds, I raise to 100 (hoping to get one of the two limpers to fold).
MP and LP both call. Pot 315.
Flop 7 5 3 rainbow.
I bet 200.
MP raises 500 to 700.
LP folds.



[/ QUOTE ]

hand 1- i go to the felt here almost everytime. you're going to win this hand many times. the limp/ min reraise is scary but without a read on this opponent- i'm not dropping here and certainly not on a ten high flop. I sometimes will limp reraise jacks in a tourney so you're ahead of a few hands here. MAYBE you can fold but i usually wouldn't.

hand 2- another time that it's kind of hard to get away from. you're shortstacked. you flop 4 to the flush and turn the flush against a weak bettor (which may be indicative of a better flush draw) then go broke on the turn. another situation where there isn't much you can do unless you fold the flop....

3. just push preflop. if you take this line and see the flop- push it or call an all in. This is about as good of a flop as you're going to see w/ 9s barring a flopped set.
typically when you have 7-8 bb you want to fall into push/fold mode.

4. you say "i know i'm beat but i push", and the bb calls w/ 67 suited. you're not beat here. not even close. you're actually a big favorite to get in there and double up with this hand.

5. i don't like how you played this hand. i probably go broke on the flop since MANY players will pull this reraise w/ 88-qq here.

that said- preflop- take it to 125-150hood. 100 is only pricing him in to flop a set against another decent sized stack. if he still calls, i'm not laying down kings unless i know the player or get the feeling that i'm beat here- which most of the time you won't be.


a lot of this is just bad luck- hand 5 was botched a bit preflop, but i don't see anything really glaringly wrong with these plays. with the low flush draw- occasionally i'll fold them on the flop in a multiway pot since i don't want to make a good second best hand and be forced to a tough decision.

maybe others will be more insightful.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1. Kick self in ass.
#2. Repeat until self agrees to fold when he knows he's beat.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1. Kick self in ass.
#2. Repeat until self agrees to fold when he knows he's beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

#3 Stop "knowing" you're beat when you are ahead 80% of the time.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.
I know I'm beat but I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1. Kick self in ass.
#2. Repeat until self agrees to fold when he knows he's beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

#3 Stop "knowing" you're beat when you are ahead 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks- i was beginning to think that i was assessing these wrong.

[go fish]

Thanks, willie.

I did analyze hand #5 afterwards and decided that I should have raised more pre-flop. My main consideration was that everyone was playing very tight - far more tight than I was used to - and I thought a 3.3X raise would be enough to drive one, if not both, out. I wanted one out so I could be extremely comfortable with my kings, heads up. I was greedy, basically - wanted a return on a great hand. It didn't happen. Post-flop I was just throwing out a continuation bet to keep the pot sweet or take it right there. That raise could only mean that I was beat, but I just couldn't face it. Maybe you're right about any pocket overpairs raising, but man that was a sizable raise. It screamed "I hit my set" to me. He had 33.

I was being a bit of a smartass on hand #4. I knew I was beat because this maniac was unbelievably lucky on draws. And of course he hit a river 7 to beat me.

#3 was smartass too, I guess. The one guy who called my push had 44 and rivered a 4. I guess I got what was left of my money in with the best hand I could realistically hope for.

#2 - those min bets told the story. This guy was just reeling me in with Ax clubs. I just couldn't stand that my flush was no good. Maybe I should have just called him but I didn't want him to get a chance at another card without paying more.

#1 - this tight aggressive player was representing KK or AA. What are you supposed to do when you have QQ against that? I was really praying I'd flop a Q, but no such luck. Then, once more, I couldn't stand to lay down a good hand with a flop like that.

Maybe you're right, maybe most of this is bad luck. I was just hoping that there's some kind of hole in my game or some kind of theory that I should keep in mind, and the experts here could pick it out.

[Misfire]

I'm still a novice too, so somebody please thump me if I say something off the mark.

Hand #1: It's just unlucky to run into KK with QQ. Even after the flop, there's only a small handful of hands that have you beat at this point (2 higher pairs, 3 sets, and however many combinations of 2 pair). If you really really knew you were beat here, I'd say you read players better than most people. If not, I'm having a hard time believing that pushing Queens when they're an overpair is an altogether horrible play. Maybe I'm wrong. Is it maybe too early in the game to be pushing this?

Hand #2: I'm confused. You called 60 on the flop with a flush draw, but then when you make your flush on the turn you all of the sudden "know" you're beat. There's already an overcard on the board, so I know you're not waiting for a 10. If you're going to be beaten after you make your flush, why even call on the flop?

Hand #3: I'm all-in preflop here. You've got 6 BBs and a middle pair. Poop or get off the pot.

Hand #4: Again, all-in preflop. You HAVE to get some chips here, and I doubt you can rely on anything better than 66 coming in the next 10 hands.

Hand #5: I'd raise bigger... Pocket Kings don't like company so bet enough to scare people away preflop. 4-6x BB at least.

[go fish]

You could have a point there. Actually I think that I have already taken your advice, and that's why I lost on all these hands.

#1: I suppose this guy could have had AK, but his tightness to this point really made that preflop reraise smell like AA or KK. So most of the time my QQ is going to hold up, but in this case, I can't say that I'm ahead. I just refused to believe it though.

#2: Once again, most of the time my T high flush is probably okay. The min bets on the flop and the turn made me stop and think, though. Maybe TP bets like that, but not in most games I play. TP with 3 of a suit on the board checks.

#3: I think I was up against too many people on this hand with the 99. I should have pushed preflop.

#4: Ah, see my other post, that one was a bit of a smartass hand.

#5: I think willie helped me see that I should have raised more preflop. It was my greed that got me on this hand. But tell me truthfully - if you were in this position, what would you have done? Could you have laid down the kings?

If you couldn't either, then I guess I'll feel better.

[Blarg]

I'm not a big fan of low flushes and straights, especially with more cards to come. They lose often. At least in limit, that's par for the course and no big deal; you just try again. You don't lose all your chips.

In your flush hand, you had two people who may have had Ace, King, Queen, or Jack of clubs to beat you on the turn, or, if they needed one more club, the one who was in at the river still had time to river it even if he wasn't going for the flush in the first place. It looks to me like you did not know they had it, but were hoping they were drawing to it, and wanted to mess up their odds by pushing. There would be some merit to that, but it's very read-dependent. Sounds like now you're second-guessing yourself and not admitting your bad read, and saying, Ah, I knew it all along.

Before you've seen that river, I'm more a fan of calling than pushing. The possibility of the river bringing a fourth club would render your flush worth only a small crying call, if anything.

Your merely calling passively along is good enough to get many people with flushes through queen high making tiny bets or even checking with their higher flushes. You can often get off cheap here calling and then either turning over a minor loser or a winner. With a small flush, three suited on board and a card yet to come, you're putting a lot of gamble into a situation where you don't really have an advantage that warrants it.