Rounder First Hand

[Dangsy]

I was just wondering, The first hand in Rounders, when Matt Damon had the 9's Full. Do you think he made the right choice by going all in? what were the chances that KGB had the pair underneath?

[AJo Go All In]

Damon's character put KGB on a spade flush.

[Dangsy]

Do you think he made the right move by going all in though? what were the chances of KGB having the pair of aces underneath?

[texag97]

Yes, Damon's character did the right thing by going all-in. KGB simply outplayed him on the hand. Preflop, Damon raises, KGB sees pocket Aces headsup and decides to just call to trap Damon. KGB flops a monster and checks to slowplay knowing Damon will stay aggressive and misread his hand...and the rest is pretty straighforward. Damon puts KGB on flush draw and bets his monster 9s full, only to run into KGB's slowplayed bigger monster Aces full.

For the odds, the calculation would be 3/50 * 2/49 = 6/2450 or 408:1 odds that KGB held pocket aces preflop. Explanation - 3 Aces in deck / 50 unseen cards * 2 Aces in deck / 49 unseen cards. In other words, it was very unlikely that Damon's A9 would be up against AA heads up. In my opinion Damon played the hand perfectly and just got very unlucky.

[ninthyaga]

I'm not so sure that it was the right move. KGB just put in a $15,000 bet into a $3000 pot. If Mike raises him another $30,000, do you think he would call with a flush to a paired board? Especially since Mike said, "I don't think you have the spades." Mike being the expert card player would have just called (at most) if he didn't think KGB had a flush but would only call a raise if he did have it. By raising, it seems that Mike can only lose more money, but gain nothing more than if he simply called.

[peak_007]

He said that because he wanted him to call with the flush which he had him on which loses to the boat.

[Clarkmeister]

"KGB simply outplayed him on the hand"

Oh, please.

There isn't anyone in the world who isn't getting "outplayed" when they are headsup with A9 on an A99 board vs AA.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Exactly. Out of 2070 2 card combinations left, there is only 1 that beats him, and about 150 that KGB would play like he did in response to Mike's play.

Besides, if the result is different, they don't have a movie. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[Duke]

When Mike was talking to K'nish later on and is like: "I didn't get unlucky. I got outplayed." how many people think that this basically means he has no business playing cards?

First he loses his whole roll on a 400:1 shot, and then later, when the chances of Teddy having AA in the last game are at least twice as likely as that... he moves all in again? And this time it's the right play?

What, exactly, did he learn?

~D

[Nottom]

I don't know about Mike making the wrong play at the end, but I do think KGBs all-in at the end was horrible.