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#41
04-09-2005, 07:12 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
Why take 56% when you can fold and have a greater than 56% chance of winning the tournament? [/ QUOTE ] Even if Flack is a significantly greater favorite to win a prolonged match than %56 he probably should take a chance of winning or losing it all. I believe that Flack has and advantage over Brenes but somewhat less than 11%. This is a no limit holdem tournament and both equal in Chips. In a Heads up NLH Tournament the better players edge can become minimal or even nullified by the weaker player by just moving in. "See the Sklansky System". A %56 edge becomes significant against a Guy Like Brenes that is willing and has shown a propensity to move in. vince 
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#42
04-09-2005, 07:54 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
The real mistake in this hand was Flack's call with 99. [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised this post has been entertained so heavily. Layne Flack had a read, went w/ it, turns out to be 100% dead on the money w/ the read, yet he gets faulted for making the call? This statement should be retracted or modified b/c it is laughable in its current state.
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#43
04-09-2005, 08:03 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe this thread has gotten this long without anyone putting Layne on a range of both opening and calling hands. On the face of it, it looks like the chip stacks were a little deep to be making this move, but it's probably fairly close if there is a big difference in skill level postflop. What is layne calling with? Is he laying down AQ or AJs there? He instacalled with 99, does he lay down 55 or even 66? Probably. We should attempt to answer these questions before simply writing off Brenes' play as fishy. -sossman [/ QUOTE ] You forget, this is the WPT forum.
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#44
04-09-2005, 08:58 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
I don't think Eric's play is bad as long as he realizes that:
1. 22 is a coinflip/teeny edge with most of Layne's holdings here, and his push holds good FE. 2. That Layne will eat Eric alive if Eric does not start playing preflop poker. If fact, if Layne is speeding, it's a pretty good move since Layne will fold a lot here since Layne knows he has an edge and will not call what he thinks is a 50 50. Kind of reminds me of Philips Hanson AQ/TT. Which was on earlier today.
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#45
04-09-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I can't believe this thread has gotten this long without anyone putting Layne on a range of both opening and calling hands. On the face of it, it looks like the chip stacks were a little deep to be making this move, but it's probably fairly close if there is a big difference in skill level postflop. What is layne calling with? Is he laying down AQ or AJs there? He instacalled with 99, does he lay down 55 or even 66? Probably. We should attempt to answer these questions before simply writing off Brenes' play as fishy. -sossman [/ QUOTE ] You forget, this is the WPT forum. [/ QUOTE ] duh, thanks for reminding me...
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#46
04-10-2005, 01:21 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The real mistake in this hand was Flack's call with 99. [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised this post has been entertained so heavily. Layne Flack had a read, went w/ it, turns out to be 100% dead on the money w/ the read, yet he gets faulted for making the call? This statement should be retracted or modified b/c it is laughable in its current state. [/ QUOTE ] This is a crappy argument. Everyone in this thread is being way to results dependant except for dynasty. Take Brenes's two push hands, the KQ and the 22 and swap them so that Flack folds his trash to the 22 and calls with 99 against the KQ and we aren't even having this discussion.
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#47
04-10-2005, 02:14 PM
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Re: Last hand in Aruba. Did Brenes play right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The real mistake in this hand was Flack's call with 99. [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised this post has been entertained so heavily. Layne Flack had a read, went w/ it, turns out to be 100% dead on the money w/ the read, yet he gets faulted for making the call? This statement should be retracted or modified b/c it is laughable in its current state. [/ QUOTE ] This is a crappy argument. Everyone in this thread is being way to results dependant except for dynasty. Take Brenes's two push hands, the KQ and the 22 and swap them so that Flack folds his trash to the 22 and calls with 99 against the KQ and we aren't even having this discussion. [/ QUOTE ] There are times when it's okay to be results oriented. For instance, a time when you have your opp. dead to rights as a 4.5 to 1 favorite. wtf.
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