Set vs. Flush?

[loose passive]

Early in a $30+3 on Stars. No real reads on anybody. Feel free to critique all aspects of the hand.


PokerStars Game #1489590905: Tournament #6823191, Hold'em No Limit -
Level II (15/30) - 2005/04/08 - 05:00:03 (ET)
Table '6823191 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: mdnttkr (1655 in chips)
Seat 2: ANILIHATOR (1555 in chips)
Seat 3: Colrin (1245 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (1240 in chips)
Seat 5: dpol814 (2270 in chips)
Seat 8: PSZ31 (3735 in chips)
Seat 9: Mic. (1800 in chips)
mdnttkr: posts small blind 15
ANILIHATOR: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [6c 6s]
Colrin: folds
Hero: raises 60 to 90
dpol814: folds
PSZ31: folds
Mic.: calls 90
mdnttkr: calls 75
ANILIHATOR: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [Jd 7s Kd]
mdnttkr: checks
ANILIHATOR: checks
Hero: bets 150
Mic.: calls 150
mdnttkr: folds
ANILIHATOR: folds
*** TURN *** [Jd 7s Kd] [6d]
Hero: bets 180
Mic.: raises 270 to 450
Hero: calls 270
*** RIVER *** [Jd 7s Kd 6d] [5h]
Hero:?

[dnegz]

with around 1500-1600 in the pot, and over half of your chips in the pot. I think unless you check fold, any kind of blocking bet pretty much commits you to the pot. With no solid reads at this point I think you hafta push the rest of your 550 chips or so, pot pays out about 3-1. The question is, do you think you have him beat 1/4 times?

You can check fold, but I don't like being hugely shortstacked at the start of the tournament, which means you are going to have to get lucky and double up, and still be only around 1100 chips.

In my opinion you put yourself in a shitty situation with your play up to this point. I don't really like the raise with 66 at the start of the tournament, but its not terrible, I would limp and play it for value on the flop. I really don't like your bet on a scary flop like that, 3 overcards and flush and straight draw possibilities. I check-fold that flop everytime with no reads.

I think you put yourself in a crappy situation, but at your point I think I push on the river everytime and hope he has tptk or two pair, cuz his play definitaly doesn't seem like a bluff. What hands do you put him on? Unfortunately I think you are beat most of the time, most likely flush, overset or even a straight. anyways just my opinion,

Kyle

[Pokerscott]

I think you have to check/call here. There is a decent chance you are beat. There is also a decent chance you have the best hand (villian could easily be representing a flush on the turn).

Check/call is superior to all-in because you win more chips when they bluff at the pot. You are losing all your chips when you are second best in any event.

I guess there are hands you beat that might call a value bet (e.g. KQ) so betting some might be the right play. The key is to figure out how to get max value when you are ahead and not to worry about what happens when you are behind (you lose all no matter what [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Pokerscott

[dnegz]

yes, I didn't really think about your river move. scott is right, check call is your move. I just figured either way the rest of your chips are going in, unless he checks behind. If you lead out, he calls when you are beat, very few hands he calls with that aren't beating you, but there is the possibility. If you check though there is the possibility he may follow through with his bluff.

[loose passive]

I thought about coming back over the top on the turn. I decided to push all in on the river instead. I was going to get all my chips into the pot no matter what so I decided to put him to a test on the river. I had a feeling I was in the lead, if he has me beat then so be it.