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| View Poll Results: Lots more raising from the BB when I was planning on calling anyway vs a button/CO steal will . . . | |||
| +EV when used occasionally, unless you're an idiot. |
   
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2 | 16.67% |
| Likely +EV, but your postflop play must be good! Be careful. |
  
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3 | 25.00% |
| Very marginal. If you're very good postflop you might squeeze a little +EV out of it. |
  
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5 | 41.67% |
| -EV unless you're a pro (in which case why are you asking us our opinions?) |
  
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2 | 16.67% |
| -EV, period. Call or fold. |
  
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0 | 0% |
| Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#32
03-31-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out [/ QUOTE ] You're undoubtedly right. Since I was using it to 'balance' other unlikely occurances, probably harmless in this case, but I have to watch it for cases when it would make a difference. 
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#33
03-31-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
Your preflop reraise perplexes me. For a tight player, reraising AKs to an UTG raise early in a tournament seems a bit reckless. I'd call the raise.
But, if I were to reraise, it would be to about 140. 100? What was that about? You trying to build a pot?
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#34
03-31-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.
[ QUOTE ] So, these are my in the game thoughts... I've got 15 outs [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Think more. Post less.
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#35
03-31-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: The Results
[ QUOTE ]
The perfect scenario for you. You did have 15 clean outs. [/ QUOTE ] All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs. I think assuming less than 9 is way too tight. And assuming more than 11 is way too optimistic. That's kind of how I settled in on 10. That being said, in terms of increasing ROI, this is a fold.
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#36
03-31-2005, 12:17 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention. Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So, these are my in the game thoughts... I've got 15 outs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Think more. Post less. [/ QUOTE ] Bball, you are correct. My intent was to start the discussion with the total number of outs, and then work backwards. Do you do it any different? Perhaps I should have stated it all, and succinctly in my first post, but I was tired, and I don't have a chart showing me the odds with two cards to come. But you're correct, if you believe I am trying to claim my total thought process, disjointed as it appears in this thread, as an afterthought, then I am the fool.
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#37
03-31-2005, 12:21 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
But, if I were to reraise, it would be to about 140. 100? What was that about? You trying to build a pot? [/ QUOTE ] hmmmm, good line. This might explain some questions in other parts of my game. No, building a pot is not my intent. Do you think that a raise to 100 signifies pot building? Particularly, that it will induce another call behind me? (forget the results, meaning, you think MP2 would have been more likely to fold whatever hand he had? and more likely isolate this hand down to just UTG+2?)
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#38
03-31-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
Think more. Post less. [/ QUOTE ] So, you're advice is that I should NOT post hands that I have questions on? Then, out of curiosity, what is the point of this forum? Scuba
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#39
03-31-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention. [ QUOTE ] So, these are my in the game thoughts... I've got 15 outs [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Think more. Post less. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention. [ QUOTE ] So, these are my in the game thoughts... I've got 15 outs [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Think more. Post less. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure what the problem with this is. I think it is pretty clear what he meant. Scuba is posting a lot of hands and generating a lot of interesting discussion. There is very clear evidence that this was a good post as the poll is just about 50/50. Without Scuba around the board would be filled up by ForumBot, GF, and 'Is this ROI sustainable?'. Scuba has plenty of credibility and (I'm trying to express this without it sounding like an insult) I commend him for exploring a lot of hands with an open mind rather than just trying to appear smart, which is most of what I try and do.
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#40
03-31-2005, 12:33 PM
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Re: The Results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The perfect scenario for you. You did have 15 clean outs. [/ QUOTE ] All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs. I think assuming less than 9 is way too tight. And assuming more than 11 is way too optimistic. That's kind of how I settled in on 10. That being said, in terms of increasing ROI, this is a fold. [/ QUOTE ] OK, first of all, please quit using the word assume when referring to possible holdings of opponents. It is retarded and wrong. Calculating outs is not an exercise in reaching an assumption, but rather an exercise in reaching a reasonable estimate of how live particular cards may be in giving you the best hand. [ QUOTE ] All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't "prove" anything. There still is a chance that the hot chick was feigning disinterest to see how committed you were to making your move and you were going to score immediately without having to offer up so much as a dinner. It's like saying if the results were that one villian had 8h7h and the other villian had AdAc, that it "proves" you were way too optimistic because you actually only had slightly less than 5 outs.
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