$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[rickw]

I just went through a very similar situation in a 10+1 this weekend w/ the following details (I posted this in a separate thread but thought this thread had some good discussion):

$10+1 Party NL Holdem tournament.

Blinds are 150/300; 4 players left

I'm on button w/ about 2500.
Bigstack is utg w/ approx. 3800; he's been a superlucky calling station, calling allins w/ axo;kxo, etc. and getting lucky when dominated.

SB has about 60 chips left after posting 150. Weak Tight

BB has about 1200 chips left after posting 300. Tight.

Bigstack raises to 600; I'm looking at ako;

If I push I figure there's a 30% chance utg folds, a 40% chance he calls w/ crap, a 20% chance it's a coinflip and a 10% chance I'm dominated. Would this be an easy push even though you're looking at the SB about to be eliminated? (I thought so at the time on the theory, go for the win . . .)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
he folds 40%-60%

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems about right to me. I was thinking I push about 50%. What's your point?

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, Degen, you seem to have settled down a little. It appears that at our shared first instincts, pushing, as that was your 'advice' and it was also my instinct at the time (as that is what I did - despite your belief that I am too weak tight), may or may not be the best move. In an effort to continously improve my (our) game, which I measure in terms of ROI, I am reconsidering my play. Perhaps a call is better for my (our) overall ROI.

That being said, are you still stuck on 'auto' push here? Can there be any case just calling?

I propose we do some math, rather than continually to verbally debate this.

Things to consider: $33 SNG

What Hand Range do we put villain on?
What percentage of the time do we assume villain will fold?

I'll do the rest of the math.

[fnord_too]

I push. I still have a lot of folding equity (UTG will be raising with a lot of hands here, and doubling me up puts a terrible hurting on his stack). If I'm called, I don't mind a race against any hand other than AA or KK. The fact that BB has 2.2 (or 1.2? Not sure if 440 is after he posts or not) does not really affect my decision in this case. (Caveat, the only STTs I've played of late are satelites, but it would take math to convince me that pushing is wrong, and even then I'm going to have to buy the assumptions the math is based on, like hand ranges, calling standards, etc.)

[Degen]

my point is that if:

A: he folds 40%-60% of the time
B: he calls the other 40%-60% of the time
C: you are a favorite or a coin-flip in at least 75% of instances you are called

(this last one i am assuming, i doubt many would disagree)

you have to push every time. i'm about to read your 'math' post but i'm sure you will see too that this is a profitable move long-run, though it may add a little short-term variance...it is definately +EV long run.



Degen

[pooh74]

This is a good hand...thx scuba...for all the pushers out there, this is not so easy. I'd flat call this...youre a dog to any pair and, of course you may be dominating many UTG's raising hands here, but why let BB off the hook? you can still get away from this hand if you have to. I dont think this is an issue of "1st" or nothing, its an easy opportunity to get into the money and to not pass on a power hand at the same time...u have ~0 FE here so pushing really accomplishes nothing...this is one of those rare instances where you must flat call a raise on the bubble and play your hand...ive been in this situation may times and often play it this way to great success. the disadvantage is that you may only see 3 cards instead of 5 but if BB comes in, UTG may check down.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
my point is that if:

A: he folds 40%-60% of the time
B: he calls the other 40%-60% of the time
C: you are a favorite or a coin-flip in at least 75% of instances you are called

(this last one i am assuming, i doubt many would disagree)

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two assumptions we have to decipher here.
First one, we will all agree on:
Range of hands villain would be willing to play/challenge BB with.
Second one, a little more challenging:
Range of hands villain will call a reraise from me with.

I think that villains range of hands in assumption 1 are wider than the range of hands in assumption 2. Do you agree?

[ QUOTE ]
though it may add a little short-term variance...it is definately +EV long run.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, our $EV calculation has a flaw here. It assumes that there are only two choices. Push or fold. That's why this becomes such an interesting post.

I'm pretty sure the math will come out to be +$EV, but I'm curious as to
A) how much
B) what you and I agree (or disagree) the hand range will be.

[Degen]

haha sorry if i shoot from the hip man...i usually post while in the middle of 4 sng's


i don't think it matters specifically which hand he has, more what % of the time AK will win when called.


I'd say that WHEN HE CALLS the push:

-35% of the time you'll have him destroyed (meaning he has a big ace or king)
-50% of the time you'll be roughly a coin-flip (QQ or smaller PP)
-10% of the time he'll have you destroyed (AA or KK)
-5% of the time he'll have AK

add to this the fact that he'll fold 40%-60% of the time and i can tell you right now what you're ICM is gonna tell you.


PUUUUUSHHHHH!!!!!!

Degen

[Degen]

my response is summed up lower in the thread

Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

Since you're limiting your decisions (based on assuming $EV as your only decision) to either push or fold here, there's one other significant point that you miss in your analysis. What if you fold, and BB calls?

I'll do the math in my next post.