#1
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One more AKo on the bubble
$10+1 Party NL Holdem tournament.
Blinds are 150/300; 4 players left I'm on button w/ about 2500. Bigstack is utg w/ approx. 3800; he's been a superlucky calling station, calling allins w/ axo;kxo, etc. and getting lucky when dominated. SB has about 60 chips left after posting 150. Weak Tight BB has about 1200 chips left after posting 300. Tight. Bigstack raises to 600; I'm looking at ako; Do I fold (on the theory of don't mix it up w/ bigstack on the bubble and why not wait for sb to get knocked out)? Do I reraise? If so allin? There may be a little fold equity, although this guy was such a calling station that I couldn't count on that too much. In all likelihood I had a better hand, based on past experience with the guy. |
#2
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Re: One more AKo on the bubble
Well you know the SB is coming in because he only has 60 more chips. Even if SB wins, he's going to have to win at least 1 more hand to even pay the blinds again.
I'd probably wait here. |
#3
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Re: One more AKo on the bubble
why not call and see a flop? If you have him dominated, you are roughly a 75% favorite to beat him if you go all in. If you hit the flop with the shared card, you are around 87% to win, giving you 5,000 chips and a really good shot at winning the tournament. I think that at a $10 SnG against a loose player this hand is just too good to fold. If you hit the flop you will probably be a big favorite, and if you fold preflop you probably wont have time to wait for another good hand to take him out with
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#4
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Re: One more AKo on the bubble
Interesting. I didn't really consider calling. I was in "push or fold" mode.
But I guess in the back of my mind I figured if I just called, he could really have "any 2" and he would probably bet any flop, so if I didn't hit my hand, I wouldn't know where I stood . . . I guess if there were rags on the flop and he bet I could reraise to test the waters but I don't know . . . |
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