$15/$30 Turn Play

jgorham · #1 03-20-2005, 04:54 AM

First day playing $15/$30, wasn't really sure how often my hand would be good after the turn action...

MP1 is 21/12/.9, and CO is 24/7/1.1

CO has seen me bet at flops with overcards after a preflop raise, and commented on it.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 3 folds, MP1 caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero ?

CaliStyle · #2 03-20-2005, 05:08 AM

Unless these guys are maniacs I have a feeling you are in bad shape. I smell pocket tens from one of the two, maybe even a smaller set by a real loose player. I think, one may have aces as well. I have a feeling more then 50% of the time you are behind, especially in a typical $15/$30 game. I would muck this unless you are fairly sure you are ahead.

college_boy · #3 03-20-2005, 06:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unless these guys are maniacs I have a feeling you are in bad shape. I smell pocket tens from one of the two, maybe even a smaller set by a real loose player. I think, one may have aces as well. I have a feeling more then 50% of the time you are behind, especially in a typical $15/$30 game. I would muck this unless you are fairly sure you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be good here 50% of the time to make a call correct does he? Regardless I would still fold this against typical players

CaliStyle · #4 03-20-2005, 06:35 AM

Yeah more like 33% if there are only 3 people in the hand. But I think you are behind 85% of the time against typical opponents.

stonecoldnuts · #5 03-20-2005, 06:58 AM

Muck your hand and be glad the set of 10s doesn't take any more of your money.

Lmn55d · #6 03-20-2005, 08:36 AM

The percentage of times he needs to have the best hands doesn't depend on the number of people in the hand. It depends on the size of the pot and the amount of bets he will need to put in by the river, as well as the chances of him improving by the river.