Can Supertight Play Win?

[David Sklansky]

The answer for almost all games is no.

[Ralle]

Do you have any statistical results to quantify this? Just curious.

[Shawn Keller]

Josh what you say is true but also irrelevant to the question because he states that your opponents play fair, and with the 15-30 blind structure almost always being 10/15 I'd say that it would be almost impossible to win playing this way.

Shawn Keller

[Kevin J]

Josh-

I don't believe Mason said the ONLY profitable hands were AA and KK. I believe it was more like in a wild game where many players are seeing the flop for 4 bets... You can still make a profit if you chose to only play big pairs (and AKs). This doesn't mean that these are the only profitable hands, just that you can lower your variance greatly and still figure to make a profit if you were to play nothing else.

I'm finding this thread intersting. I'm not a mathematician, but what David is implying goes against my instinct. I would think that against very bad players who pay multiple bets pre-flop you CAN profit by playing very tight (as long as you also play well AFTER the flop).

[Kevin J]

I think you guys might be talking apples and oranges. In the game you described above, I'd tend to think that super-tight play can NOT win.

However, you guys do point out in HPFAP that in a wild-loose game where many bad players are seeing the flop for 4 bets, playing only AA,KK,QQ and AKs, should be sufficient to show a profit. Although I understand that if you're willing to undergo the swings, this would not produce maximum long-term profit.

[joedot]

hellya. I do it. And especially online where the majority of the players are terrible. The higher the limit online, the tricker the players, and the more aggressive the players in general. If you play strong hands from the blinds, you are sure to get action from these bullies that try to bully you all the way to the river with their mediocre hands, and then you turn over the winner. They simply try to push it too hard, too often, and bluff WAY too much. Just let them bring on their own demise and self destruction. However, you must play strongly when you have position, but with solid hands. And post play needs to be solid. No need to call all the way to the river with overcards, just because you are too undiciplined to lay down AK when it clearly becomes toilet paper. Mixed with tight play, I think it is ignorant to say that this cannot win. Like I said, ESPECIALLY online. I don't know about those tough Vegas games where people may catch onto the fact that you are a tight player. Most of these online suckers don't know, or don't care that you are playing tight. And there are so many online sites that you can play at, that it doesn't even matter. Anyway, I shouldn't be helping other people make money, so please disregard this post.

[Nick]

You stated no rake and no time charge - you are dealt in for free? Playing only the unraised BB and folding whenever you don't flop the nuts would earn something. If your opponents don't put you on 'tight' as you also stated, then you make more with the AA, KK, QQ AK. Heck, even if they do put you on 'tight'.

[johnb]

I'll preface my response by saying that I am a low limit player but my first reaction is that a whole lot would depend on how you played the AA, KK, QQ, and AK when you got them....

[Lin Sherman]

I'm roughly guesstimating that in a 10-handed game you'd have to NET at least $600 per pot when you do win just to break even. "Fair" players just aren't going to give you that kind of action.

You're going to get one of these hands only once every 39 deals on average, and I doubt even an expert could win more than 25% of them on average in a 10-handed game. Add up the blinds and your losses on the hands you don't win (including blind hands where you get a free ride but continue to play post-flop then lose), and it's a fairly huge number.

Lin