My least profitable hand

chucklhead · #1 02-20-2005, 01:09 PM

Hello all,
In a very small sampling, Jacks and Queens are both in my top five most losing hands. Both are losing more than 2 BB/hand. I'm sure this means something. I would appreciate any help deciding what it does mean.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

When I think about the various books and posts I have read, I think I should have 3 bet on the flop. However, do I get away from this hand ever? The inside straight and overpair keep me in on the turn. I am hesitant to fold an overpair on the river for one bet getting 9:1 odds.

Thank you,
Chucklhead

Spartan1983 · #2 02-20-2005, 01:32 PM

3-bet the flop or check/raise the turn. If villain keeps showing aggression, then with no reads I call it down.

sfwusc · #3 02-20-2005, 01:36 PM

Three bet the flop. If it gets capped then call down.

If the three bet is just called then raise the turn.

Post more of these hands. How many times have you been dealt this hands. they should be profitable

DeeJ · #4 02-20-2005, 01:45 PM

This has to be a small sampling! Jacks and Queens should be winning over half the time, bringing in hard cash.

I'm sure it doesn't mean much. Over about 150 times each, my JJ wins 58% of the time at 0.88BB/hand overall, QQ wins 65% of the time at 1.05BB/hand overall.

I won a big pot with TT which currently outkicks my JJ returns despite a lower %ge win rate [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

spydog · #5 02-20-2005, 01:54 PM

I don't mind not 3-betting the flop. You have position, so he can't take a free card. But, when he bets the turn, you must raise unless a 9 or 4 hits, whereby you can just call down and bet if checked to.

Octopus · #6 02-20-2005, 02:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hello all,
In a very small sampling, Jacks and Queens are both in my top five most losing hands. Both are losing more than 2 BB/hand. I'm sure this means something. I would appreciate any help deciding what it does mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

It means you have a small sample. How many times have you been dealt these hands?

[ QUOTE ]
However, do I get away from this hand ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Not without facing a lot more aggression. Call the flop; raise the turn. (And get check-raised on the river and lose the pot. It happens.)

2000Flushes · #7 02-20-2005, 03:27 PM

Have you looked into this type of hand not being the problem but rather how you play them against overcard flops etc

and by very small sample size .. exactly how small? 5k hands ... 10k ?

chucklhead · #8 02-21-2005, 04:41 AM

Thank you for the reply,

I just bought poker tracker. I have less than 2000 hands in the history. I estimate, I have roughly 30,000 hands experience. Pretty inexperienced compared to many here. In trying to improve, I figured I needed to post some hands to help me think through my game. I thought I would start off with the losing hands. When I noticed both JJ and QQ there, I thought I would start analyzing them.

I was wondering if tossing this hand at any point was possible. But it sounds like I am stuck with my overpair until something goes terribly wrong. If my opponent 3 bets the turn should I call down?

Thank you,
chucklhead

syphlix · #9 02-21-2005, 04:59 AM

i think i would 3-bet the flop... but that's just me... if i 3-bet and he caps... then mebbe i fold the turn unimproved.. otherwise if after i 3-bet he check-calls all the way down then i'm gonna assume i'm good...

-2BB w/ all your JJ and QQ is nothing but variance... you'd have to try with all your might to lose that much on JJ and QQ long term...

JackWilson · #10 02-21-2005, 05:04 AM

Looks like the BB hit a pair and thinks you're on overcards (I see this about 5 times every minute), so I think you have to proceed pretty aggressively. Against a made straight you get some outs on the turn and against two pair you have a lot of hidden outs, and that's only "if" you're behind. I'd raise the turn or reraise the flop.

Comments?

EDIT: Shoot for about 1.5-1.75 BB/h with QQ and about 1.0 BB/h with JJ. Your sample size should be at LEAST 100 hands with each, and obviously a LOT more is preferable.