Bottom set under heavy pressue on turn

[JTG51]

I was in a very good 10-20 game last night. The button is a reasonable player who I've never seen get out of line, especially after the flop. UTG is an aggressive player who has bet just about every flop

I'm in the BB with 7h7d. UTG limps, MP limps, Button limps. SB folds and I check.

Flop: Ad Ks 7c

I plan to let UTG bet so I can check raise the field. Maybe not the best decision, but that's my plan. It's foiled when everyone checks.

Turn: [Ad Ks 7c] 9h

I bet and both limpers fold. Button raises. I 3 bet, he 4 bets. I put him on 99 and make a crying call.

River: [Ad Ks 7c 9s] 9h

Well, that makes 99 much less likely. I check and he bets.

My plan?

Results later.

[KUBowler99]

Call the river. It's not likely he's holding 99 (may have raised preflop or bet on the flop). An A or K is unlikely because he would have bet the flop.

You didn't give a description of the Button, so I'll take him to be typical. He could be playing a myriad of different hands. I believe he most likely holds (in no particular order): 79s, Q9, J9. If he's tricky, he could be holding T8 and is trying to push you off what he thinks to be a good (but not great) hand.

As strong has he played the turn, I would be afraid of 79s and losing to 9s full.

I do think you should have bet out on the flop to give some deception to your hand without giving a free card. It also would have allowed you to get a better read on your opponent.

If my analysis is completely off-base, let me know (gently).

[JTG51]

At Foxwoods, the button is a thick white plasic disc. Maybe 2 1/2 inches in diameter and 1/2 inch think. It has "DEALER" stamped into it with read letters.

Oh, that's not the description you were looking for? [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

I mentioned in my original post that the Button player was reasonable and never got out of line. I can totally rule out Q9, J9, and T8 from this player.

[Uston]

Either the button limped in with AK, checked the flop with A7, or your goose is cooked. That river is about the worst you could have gotten if your description of the button is accurate. I think K9 is the most reasonable holding for him, followed by 99, A9 (not likely since he checked the flop), and 97. I think you should check-call the river. If you bet and you're beat you'll get raised close to 100% of the time and I think you'd have a hard time folding (I know I would). I also think capping the turn would have been completely reasonable.

[JTG51]

"Either the button limped in with AK, checked the flop with A7, or your goose is cooked."

That pretty much sums it up. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

"I also think capping the turn would have been completely reasonable."

We were heads up, thus no cap.

[David Sklansky]

Actually buried nines is not all that less likely. Mathematically he has one combo left instead of three. And given his fourth street play, the chances he has quads is about half of the chances he turned a set.

[KUBowler99]

Missed that in the original post [img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img]

By what you stated in your reply - he didn't have Q9 or J9. Knowing that, you lost to (from most likely to least likely) 79s, 99, K9 (although I still believe he would have bet this on the flop).

If he would have bet his hand on the flop, would you still have checkraised? He's on the button and no one between you and he is going to call. Or would you have waited until the turn to checkraise? Just a question I thought I would pose.

What about betting out on the flop?

[JTG51]

I check called and my the button showed AA. I was way behind the whole way.

I'm glad no one even mentioned that as a possibility, because I sure didn't think much about it. I was absolutely shocked that this player would limp from the button with AA. I've played quite a bit with him and have never seen him make a similar play.

Thanks for the responses.