$1k SNG Hand - Opinions?

[DonButtons]

Id push too with your chip stack. Or if your worried about climbing the prize ladder, smooth call, and push on flop if its safe or fold.

[rjb03]

[ QUOTE ]
rjb,

No, I do not want a call, even from a hand that I am probably slightly ahead of. I want those 675 chips in the pot, that's it. I do not want a showdown. I dont want AT to call me. I dont want 9T to call me. I want those chips, which gives me a good bit of time to wait out the smaller stack, which I did not have at that time.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand you don't want to be called, but if you want him to fold preflop you've got to push. Whether or not you get called is up to him. No reward without risk in poker. Maybe you don't want AT to call, but you shouldn't mind too much. What if he pushed and showed you A5/AK, are you folding KK? If you were equal stacks, no doubt about it you'd call an all in from AT as there's no way you can get ITM 70%+, but what can your expected ITM be in these sng's to pass up this kind of edge even though you're outchipped 2:1? Of course there's still the fact that he's not showing you his cards and you don't know what he has unless he calls. If you're getting folds here 75% of the time as you predict, then there's really no question what the correct play is.

[assron]

ok 1st off, JJ isnt a "monster hand". it's a very very good hand, but not a monster by any means. You can be beat by all kinds of hands, and although I havent played against Fanning in particular, I'd be wary of putting all my chips in the pot against a player who has been raising like crazy and is obviously getting impatient. I dont think he's just stealing blinds, he doesnt need to with his chipstack, I think he's looking to KO with any two decent cards, and you put all your chips right in front of him.

I think everyone is vastly overestimating chief's folding equity. Fanning can call and take a shot at a KO with any two and still be in decent shape, and probably will do so. Sure, Chief is ahead, but as he said, you cant like getting called there even if he has Ax or junk... Because JJ is not a monster hand. It's not a hand I'd fold 4-handed either obviously, but it's not the kind of advantage I'm looking for to push with if I think the big stack is looking for blood. I'm loving the call here ESPECIALLY if my table image is tight. Anyone who's playing a $1k SNG knows that a tightwad is going to push back sooner or later if you keep raising them. A call though, I think, raises your folding equity on a good flop. He knows you have a pocket pair and will make the fold. I seriously dont think he bets this flop very hard with AK after a tight player calls him. He's also rethinking his raising hands after the call, because he knows he might have to play the hand with you. His raising criteria becomes hands that he wants to be reraised all-in with, which makes it way easier for you to get a read on him. I'm absolutely loving the stop n go here.

[assron]

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack is clearly stealing often, so you have maybe a 50-60% chance he will fold

[/ QUOTE ]

This logic is iffy imo. So the big stack is stealing often, but you have to take into account that his starting hand requirements are going up with every consecutive steal. he's going to have to back off sooner or later, and probably wanted to, but picked up a huge pf hand and is perfectly set up to get a push from any pocket pair and Ax. I'd expect a call from the big stack about 70% of the time here.

[REL18]

Im surprised that on the bubble a player of your experience would state that he doesnt want 9t to call when doubling up here puts u in excellent position to play for a win, while the 675 chips are not a huge factor with blinds at were they are at.

[citanul]

you're surprised because you underestimate what a big deal the 675 chips are at this level. when you realize what a big deal they are, you will not be as surprised. i think you'll also be a lot better at sngs.

change of heart, after looking at the numbers:

i think that perhaps Chief underestimates how big a dog T9 actually is to JJ. personally, I think that I'd want to be called by T9, but not say, AJo. going in as an 80% favorite to just over double up is pretty hot, and I don't think that I could pass that up knowingly, considering prize structure, especially.

REL18, sorry about that first paragraph, but I hope that you would understand why for instance, most of the time you probably wouldn't want to be called by even AJ, or A2. In that case, the 675 clean chips are way better than the 70/30, i think. It's a line, but you have to draw it somewhere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

citanul

[citanul]

Why do you think his stealing requirements necessarilly go up every hand? I think this is only possibly true, especially with Fanning.

I think the logic of "because someone becomes more likely to play back at him each time he steals" is flawed, since to play back at him, the short stacks have to commit all of their chips to the procedure, which they aren't going to often do on a pure resteal. Especially not if they get to the point of say, Fanning being pot committed to call their reraise.

citanul

[Chief911]

What an excellent discussion.

I dont want a call from any hand. While a call from a hand that I dominate isn't THAT bad, those 675 chips put me well over 1k over the low stack, and allow me to be much more aggressive preflop with him being directly in front of me.

Also, say what you want, but I want to get into the money. 1.8x the buyin isn't bad. And once you are 3 handed, things can get a bit wild. So even going into 3 handed with 1k in chips gives you a decent shot at winning with blinds as small as they are currently.

Will try to spend some more time following up a bit later.

Nick