With me or against me?

[D.J.]

5-10 Pot limit game, I've been in the game and have about $1k in front, I'm playing at least every other hand since it's pretty cheap to get in pre-flop. Button straddles, blinds fold, I call UTG w/ 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], MP player calls $500 in front, straddler with $1,200 checks, 3 of us to the flop.

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet the pot, (75), MP player who is a typical ok player the sunglasses and i-pod type raises the pot to $300 I know for a fact I have him beat the straddler thinks and thinks and calls. Now it's to me, the way I see it, I've got 2 choices, either go all in or call, I didn't want to risk everything without seeing a safe turn card, so I called the extra $225. Turn was the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I went all in for a little over $600.

With me or against me and why? Thanks in advance

-D.J.

[Loci]

Okay, so call me skeptical, but how do you know you're in front? You've got a raiser with a caller behind you, out of position... granted you flopped the flush, and it's probable that you are in front, but I'd be cautious where you're at. I check the turn, assume MP bets, see what straddler does, and make my decision there. MP is most likely bluffing, but since the straddler is on any two cards it's entirely possible you're drawing dead. If he is on the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] draw, and he's shown he's willing to call a bet and a raise, he's going to call here whether you're betting or MP is betting. Let MP put his money in first to extract max value out of the hand.
If MP pushes, straddler calls, so do you.
If MP pushes, straddler raises, you fold.
If MP checks through(unlikely imo) you end up giving a card for free to know whether the board has a four flush. This isn't necessarily a bad thing in this situation, because if it four flushes, you're out cheap. The one you need to worry breaking you is straddler and you still have position.

[fsuplayer]

i dont hate it.

but if the MP wants to play for his stack, why not just reraise all in and push out the straddler?

if he calls with the lone K, fine, but I would hate to have to check fold the turn.


that being said, sometimes I do this with a smaller flush. depends on alot of factors.

hope it worked out.

[D.J.]

I did not think checking here was an option because I could not afford to give a free card, I know I had MP beat, that much I was sure of, either with a set or a big club he was drawing, the question mark was the straddler, and the way I saw that one was the chances of him flopping a flush also, is pretty slim, my guess is that he probably had the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and was looking for the 4th club. Either way, I felt my bet was enough to push out a draw with only 1 card to come instead of 2 on the flop.

-D.J.

[D.J.]

I like calling the flop because a lot of people will call a big raise with 2 shots at a draw, but not 1, if a club comes on the turn I have an easy decision and I can get out cheaply.

-D.J.

[Robk]

i'm against you. for simplicity i'll consider the case where MP is drawing dead, and assume hes just gone all in on the flop. (not much of a stretch really since he only has 200 behind). before your action, the pot contains 950 (= 75 + 75 + 500 + 300).

if you push all-in and straddler calls with the lone K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], your EV = 840 (= .7*(950+600) - .3*825)

if you call and push in on a non-club turn (assuming that the straddler folds on the turn), your EV = 760. (=36/43*950 - 7/43*225).

so not pushing in on the flop is an 80 dollar mistake in this case. note that if the straddler will make the error of calling your all-in on the turn, then you do best of all. (EV = 930). this agrees with the FTP in that if you can induce him to make an error you do the best. of course him calling the push on the flop (in the situation i described) would be the correct play, as would folding on the turn if he misses.

at first it seemed counterintuitive to me that the straddler did better if you did the stop and go. as you deny him the chance to make a further profitable play. but where he gains is in getting a cheap look at the turn. putting it another way, he would prefer a free look at one card to paying for two, even if he gets a fair price to draw twice. to try and illustrate this, here are things from his point of view.

after his call the pot contains 950. if you call it will contain 1175. if you only call, he gets a free shot at the turn. (in the sense that he has to pay nothing more). his EV = 191 (=7/43*1175).

if you raise all he is forced to pay the 600. his EV = 112 (= (1175+600)*.3 - 600*.7).

note that his EV loss is equal to your EV gain (except for my rounding), as should be expected in a heads up pot.

now if we return to the real situation, these conclusions should still apply. provided that MP has two pair or a set, he takes EV from both of you but doesn't change matters. (i won't present the math, so i hope you will trust me).

but the reason I think your play is particularly poor is that there is a significant chance that both players are on a club draw. in this case you lose one of the two main benefits of the stop and go, which is saving the entire pot the 13% of the time a club comes on the river but not the turn. with both players on the club draw, you are thrilled to have the straddler put the extra $600 in the pot.

thanks for the interesting post-

[D.J.]

After I went all in, both players called and the straddler turns over K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] OUCH!!! I went home

Thanks for the replies,

-D.J.

[Loci]

Bet for value or don't bet at all... if your opponent flopped trips(or two pair in the straddle), he's now got the boat. While I understand your logic, and can see how this play might work if either player has nothing, it's going to hurt you in the long run because by pushing them out when they have nothing you're winning a pot you had won. If you're pushing them out when they're on the draw, you're losing overall EV. In this situation, though, you're looking at higher flushes and full boats that can break you and the money you're pushing is dead.
Just my opinion.
Ez

[Louie Landale]

Great post. But I don't think you've covered this completely, such as when he's got a set and you think pairing the board is safe, or when he bluffs you when the 4th suit gets there.

Anyway it sure looks like going all in on the flop is better than the turn, unless you know what he's got and he's going to call the turn all in anyway.

Bet'em when you've got 'em. Who'd of thunk it.

- Louie

[lapoker17]

Limping under the gun with suited connectors is ugly - I don't like it. If you really want to play them there, then raise preflop - If not, muck.