Fold or Call???

[D.J.]

Playing 5-10 PLH at Hawaiian Gardens for about 4 hours and am up $500. I have $1500 in front in the SB. 3 players limp and I raise the pot to $50 with QQ, BB calls and 2 more call, I have everyone covered except BB who has about $3K and is one of those young internet player types who plays pretty decent.

Flop comes

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I come out and bet the pot of $200, BB calls quickly, others fold

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet $400, BB raises to put me all in, I have about $900 left what's your play?

-D.J.

[mks]

This is really so player dependent it is hard to answer. What hands have you seen this guy play so far? Anyway, I'll take a shot.

Presumably he has one of two hands: FH or flush draw. If the former you have on average about 3 outs (2 vs 99, 4 vs 33), so you win about 1/15. If the latter he has say 12 outs (3 aces + 9 clubs if he has the nut flush draw which he should have to call that flop bet), so he wins about 1/4.

Let x be the probability that he has the boat.

Then based on these rough estimates, if you call you win 2300*x*1/15 + 2300*(1-x)*3/4 - 900*x*14/15 - 900*(1-x)*1/4.

The breakeven probability x is about 70%. So if he has the flush draw more than 30% of the time you have a call. Will he have it that often, I doubt it but you've seen the guy play. Also, could he have AA here or 98? He would raise those on the flop I think, but who knows. Often a quick call indicates a draw, so maybe that pushes it to call. Any more info on this guy?

[schwza]

good analysis. i would add in that he could have an OESD, or maybe an OESD in addition to a flush draw. also possible that he has TT/JJ. i'd probably make the crying call.

[ML4L]

Hey D.J.,

Quick call on the flop there sounds like a draw. He knows exactly what you have. If he flopped a set or two pair, he's probably going to put you to the test on the flop before one of a trillion turn cards makes the board too scary to get his action. Or, he'll at least pause to think about it. If he insta-called, he's probably weak.

So, that means the 8 probably didn't help him. I think he wants you to fold. Call (but don't be surprised if he has a boatload of outs).

Again, when your opponent knows your cards and you don't know his, you're going to be put in tough spots. Sometimes, that means backing a hand that, ideally, you wouldn't want to play for all of your money. I think this is one of those hands.

Hope it worked out...

ML4L

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick call on the flop there sounds like a draw. He knows exactly what you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very important. Since it's pretty obvious you have an overpair, you have to think about what this guy thinks of you? Does he think you'll lay down JJ-AA here to a raise? If so then he probably wants you to fold and you should call. Depends a lot on your read of how he reads you and your image at the table.

Justin A

[D.J.]

I don't feel too bad about my call now, all of those things were going through my head, and I thought there was a good enough chance of winning so I risked everything to see that he had 99, I said ni han and went home.

-D.J.