Drawing Hands and Pot Odds

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Not to nitpick, but all you've done is point out those cases where there are additional outs, or better implied odds. If he has a backdoor flush draw, he has the equivalent about 1.5 additional outs. If the texture of the table is such that several players will chase to the river with worse hands, his implied odds go up.

The point is, that in many cases, you often have more outs than you think, and sometimes immediate pot odds are not the only consideration. The result is the same.

[ComedyLimp]

Jason,

A back door flush is about a 23:1 to hit by the river so its roughly equivalent to 1 out with two to come. If I remember correctly SSHE says says something about adding an extra 1/2 out because it's an easy fold on the turn if your next heart doesn't hit. Hence call the flop bet if have enough odds with 1.5 outs and then fold the turn if you miss or recalcuate for the river if you hit.

In practice this is of more use in adding a backdoor flush to other outs. The situation where you have only a back door draw, have enough pre-flop action to give you enough odds and it gets around to you to make a decision based for one bet is so rare you can problably ignore it.

At least that is my understanding

Edit: What the Klingon said

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to nitpick, but all you've done is point out those cases where there are additional outs, or better implied odds. If he has a backdoor flush draw, he has the equivalent about 1.5 additional outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if we're not all-in, and therefore only allowed to consider the turn card for our odds calculations, then technically there aren't *any* outs. The reason a backdoor flush draw is *equivalent* to 1.5 outs, as ComedyLimp pointed out, comes from computing the odds of the flush coming in by the river.

So if you add 1.5 outs to your other outs on the basis of a backdoor flush draw, and you compare your outs to the pot odds to make your decision, then you're implicitly taking into account the fact that two cards are still to come. This defies the principle that when you're not all-in, you should consider only the turn card in your pot odds calculation. This was exactly my point.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero assumes he has 8 outs to win the hand (count 0 partial outs for a 9 or T). SB bets $5. Pot is now $20, thus offering the hero 4 to 1. Because he is 2.18 against to make his 8-outter by the river, he calls. MP calls as well bringing the pot to $30.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't look at the odds of hitting by the river in this hand(2.2-1) unless you know beforehand you will be going to the river.

[Copernicus]

You can't look at the odds of hitting by the river in this hand(2.2-1) unless you know beforehand you will be going to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite true. You cant look at the odds of hitting by the river unless you consider the probability that you will have sufficient odds to go to the river AND consider the additional investment and return from the river bets

Said more simply, you need (correctly calculated) implied odds.

[AngryCola]

Somewhere DS and MM's heads are exploding. I have yet to read (perhaps just missed it) anyone mention effective odds.

Lets assume you know your odds of making hand X are 3:1, with 2 cards to come in limit holdem. You also know that if you make your hand it will be the best hand. A bet is made, and at that moment you have the correct pot odds to draw with your "2 cards to come" odds. However, as has been stated, those odds are only real if you intend to see both the turn and the river.

It turns out that in this <vague> example, you may be getting 3:1 to see the turn. Then the bets double. In this pot if you called the 4th street bet you wouldn't be getting 3:1 on that call anymore. Thus making your call on the flop incorrect as well.

So, what to do?

It's just a simple matter of figuring out what amount you have to call on the flop + the turn vs. the pot odds you figure to have once you have called the turn bet. In limit holdem this is almost always possible to determine. If the odds for flop+turn are greater than 3:1 (in this vague example), then you must call both streets or you are making a mistake. Remember to add your opponents likely turn bet into the pot odds for both streets.

See "The Theory of Poker" for a much better explanation and example(s) of effective odds.

I hope I didn't make too many errors, as I'm writing this post half asleep. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[binions]

When SB bets $5 to make the pot $20, how about a raise on cheap street. You make the pot $30, and 3rd player and SB either folds, calls or raises.

At worst, you knock out one player, SB calls, and bets into you on the turn, making the pot $45, and giving you the odds to call a turn bet. At best, SB checks to you on the turn.

Moreover, since sraights have good implied odds, if you hit, you are likely to make money on the river.

[AngryCola]

I agree with the free card strategy, as well as the implied odds aspects. I didn't mention either on my post as I thought it had already been dealt with a bit earlier in the thread.

[Louie Landale]

Your 2-cards-to-go odds are mostly for figuring out if you should raise. If you figure you'll get more than 2.xx callers, then raise.

For calling you should generally take one card at a time. In this case assuming SB has a K, there are 6 cards accounted for leaving 46 in the deck, of which 38 are bad and 8 are good. That's 38:8 or 4.5:1 against. You are getting 4:1 from the pot, not enough pot odds. Never-the-less you should call since you will surely get a couple more bbs from the SB when you make it.

On the turn I figure your odds are 7sb:2sb or 3.5sb to one, for you 4.4:1 shot. If you are SURE to get a river bet then calling is marginal.

To figure the 2-cards calling you'll need to figure the cost differently. There is 3sb in the pot and the SB is going to bet 3sb more (flop and turn), and it costs you 3sb to get to the river, so your are getting 6sb:3sb or 2:1 "pot odds", just short of what you need to call both cards. This is consistent with the above analysis that says don't call on the turn.

- Louie

[HUSKER'66]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely, you must take into account the fact that two cards are coming to *some* degree. Consider the following (somewhat extreme) example: I'm playing a small stakes 1/2 game 10 handed. I'm in the big blind with A2s (say hearts are my suit). By some strange twist of fate (several rounds of limp-reraising, for instance), I get roped into seeing the flop for 4 bets. (Or maybe I'm just a horrible pre-flop player.) But more than that, everyone else calls, so there's $40 in the pot on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

You might want to recheck your math.

2 * 4 * 10 = 80

Am I missing something?

Husker