Queens on the Bubble on the Button

UncleRemus · #1 06-28-2004, 01:36 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP (t4670)
Button (t720)
SB (t1170)
Hero (t1210)
UTG (t230)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t230 (All-In), MP raises to t4670 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls t1010 (All-In),

Flop: (t6210) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t6210) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t6210) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: t6210
Main Pot: t790 (t790), between MP, Hero and UTG. > Pot won by MP (t790).
Pot 2: t1960 (t1960), between MP and Hero. > Pot won by MP (t1960).
Pot 3: t3460 (t3460), returned to MP.

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Qh Qc (two pair, queens and sixes).
UTG shows Qs 8c (one pair, sixes).
MP shows Ac Kh (two pair, kings and sixes).
Outcome: MP wins t6210. 

I should sneak into the money without too much trouble if I lay the cards down, but I have to put the big stack on either a mid pocket pair up to jacks, or AJ, AK. In this situation, agianst an opponent who hasn't been playing too tight, is this read about right? Should I have feared AA or KK? Would this be a call to make again in the future or one to steer clear of?

jslag · #2 06-28-2004, 02:11 AM

I would find it difficult to fold here, but that's probably the correct choice given that MP has you covered big time and is already all-in. I don't think you can discount AA or KK here either.

Even if your read is correct that he has AK (which it was), QQ is only a 47% favorite versus AKo and another unknown hand (UTG). If I know he has AK, I am probably folding here and going to wait for a more favorable opportunity to double up. Easier said than done though.

MP wants you to call here, he is only investing a 1/3 of his stack to take both of you out with a very good holding (AKo).

Tough call, but I generally play QQ a lot more conservatively (especially with heavy preflop raises in front of me) than AA or KK.

HajiShirazu · #3 06-28-2004, 02:40 AM

I don't think MP would shut everyone else out of the pot with AA/KK although it is possible...I expect to see AK/AQ or a worse pair almost always here.
In this situation I always call, it's highly unlikely you will see a better hand than queens for the rest of the tournament and I would say that in this situation, on average you will win about 60-70 percent of the time (not against the hands you were against in this hand, just against the range of hands that could bet in this manner.)
The big stack could just as easily have had nines through jacks or AQ-AT in which case you are a heavy favorite. What a great chance to double up and have a nice stack, I would be thrilled to see a big stack all-in ahead of me and QQ in my hand, sorry it didn't work out for you here.
Finally I find that sneaking into the money is almost always a terrible strategy that backfires against me, the only way I could ever see folding here is if another player was going to have to be all-in after posting the BB in which case I might consider folding but still might not.

Girazze · #4 06-28-2004, 04:13 AM

Two all-ins ahead of your QQ is a no-brainer fold to me. Short stack all-in, not a problem to call with only T230. Your QQ is just too weak to call the chipleader's all-in. Make a practice of it and you'll see for yourself.

Tosh · #5 06-28-2004, 04:23 AM

Easy call.