Forum: Probability
08-26-2005, 10:20 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 94
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Forum: Probability
08-25-2005, 12:59 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 95
Re: AA v KK v QQ at a five handed table
If you want the odds that you have AA v KK v QQ v XX v XX where XX does not include QQ-AA then the following will work:
I split the equation up into two halves. P(3 players have AA, KK, QQ) *...
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Forum: Probability
08-20-2005, 12:18 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 111
Re: Odds to hit a straight flush
2 is the number of ways A2s and AKs can make a str-flush
2*2 is the number of ways 23s and KQs can make str-flush
etc..
It would have been clearer if I had written it out like:
2/13 *...
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Forum: Probability
08-19-2005, 04:35 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 86
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Forum: Probability
08-19-2005, 09:44 AM
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Replies: 7
Views: 111
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Forum: Probability
08-11-2005, 12:56 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 87
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Forum: Probability
08-08-2005, 04:43 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 102
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-04-2005, 01:58 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 87
Re: math problem
I just realized that since an out-shuffle is just like an in-suffle with two extra cards the number of out-shuffles to return a deck to its original order would be mod(2^x-1,n+1) = 0
aloiz
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
08-04-2005, 12:51 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 87
Re: math problem
This only works for in-shuffles (123456 -> 142536 -> 154326) with an even number of chips/cards.
Let n be the number of things shuffled and x be the number of in-shuffles necessary to return the...
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Forum: Science, Math, and Philosophy
07-27-2005, 06:13 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 47
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Forum: Probability
07-27-2005, 06:05 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 86
Re: \"Guts\" strategy
22100 possible hands
52 ways to make 3-of-kind
48 ways to make str flush (should be ranked higher than 3 of a kind)
720 ways to make a str (excluding str flush)
1096 ways to make a flush...
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Forum: Probability
07-22-2005, 05:59 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 127
Re: Inclusion/Exclusion Question
Think this is exact against three opponents but no guarantees.
1st term: C(3,1) * 11 * 6 / C(50,2)
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2nd term: ( C(3,2) * C(11,2) * 6^2 * 2 / (50!/(2*2*46!)) + C(3,2) * 11 / C(50,4) )
+
3rd...
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Forum: Probability
01-11-2005, 02:40 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 315
Re: Probability of AA,KK,QQ and JJ.....
Actually you don't need the inclusion exclusion principle because we're only calculating the odds of four players having one of four hands, so we don't need to account for the possibility of double...
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Forum: Probability
01-10-2005, 01:48 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 99
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Forum: Small Stakes Shorthanded
10-04-2004, 01:28 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 39
Re: When full ring 15-30 gets short
I play them pretty regularly. My experience is that you'll find greater extremes of skill than at any other type of game on party. There are some players who are ten times better than me, and...
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Forum: Probability
09-20-2004, 10:19 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 85
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Forum: Probability
09-16-2004, 03:47 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 84
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Forum: Probability
09-16-2004, 11:26 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 127
Re: Non-Poker Related Probability Question
He has a 62% chance of winning any given point, not the match itself.
Not completly sure if this is right but I get:
.62^21 + Sum(.62^21*.38^i*C(20+i,i),i,1,20) = 94.1%
aloiz
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Forum: Probability
09-07-2004, 10:52 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 124
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Forum: Probability
09-03-2004, 12:14 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 124
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Forum: Probability
09-02-2004, 01:50 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 83
Re: Am I ahead?
The problem with your line of thinking is that it has very little use in a real world situation. Players don't value every hand equally; therefore, the odds that you are ahead in the givin scenario...
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Forum: Probability
09-02-2004, 01:42 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 124
Re: probability question from Sklansky book
He's correct if there was no other information specified. At a 10 person table preflop the odds that a player will be deal Axs in a given suit = 10*12/combin(52,2) =~.0905.
aloiz
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Forum: Probability
08-27-2004, 03:45 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 121
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Forum: Probability
08-27-2004, 02:47 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 121
Re: Odds of set over set occuring?
Yes, I was thinking of limit and not no-limit. Your're right, in NL you have much greater implied odds so that call would obviously be correct.
aloiz
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Forum: Probability
08-27-2004, 02:29 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 121
Re: Odds of set over set occuring?
Not including the times that one of you hits four of a kind, the odds that your opponent makes a set by the river given that you made a set on the flop and your opponent has a pocket pair = 2 *...
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