Re: Question about Winrate
thanks dawg, thats pretty interesting. One last question...how exactly should you go about selecting a level of confidence? Why would one choose 68% rather than 99% or example?
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Re: Question about Winrate
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...how exactly should you go about selecting a level of confidence? [/ QUOTE ] It depends how big a lie you want to tell. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] I'm not a statistician, so don't take this as gospel: It's somewhat subjective, and often dictated by convention. 50% and 95% are the most common levels I've seen. If you choose a very high level, it may make the interval ridiculously wide, e.g. "I have 99% confidence that I win between -4 BB and +5 BB/100". If you choose a very low level, you may narrow the range but still sound silly, e.g. "I have 1% confidence that I win between 3.0 and 3.1 BB/100." |
Re: Question about Winrate
Is there an easy way to graph the upper and lower bounds of a winrate at various confidence intervals?
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Re: Question about Winrate
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Is there an easy way to graph the upper and lower bounds of a winrate at various confidence intervals? [/ QUOTE ] The simplest way I know is to use Excel or other spreadsheet. It would look something like this: link. |
Re: Question about Winrate
one more thing, what does SE stand for in that equation? Standard something?
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Re: Question about Winrate
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one more thing, what does SE stand for in that equation? Standard something? [/ QUOTE ] Standard Error |
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