Chasing flush draws
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t900)
UTG+2 (t855)
Hero (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t725)
CO (t790)
Button (t745)
SB (t785)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to t45</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, MP2 calls t100, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t55.

Flop: (t325) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t325</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to t755 (All-In)</font>, Hero .....

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

I think you should raise more preflop, and yes I would make this call.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Why did you check the flop? Bet something like 200-225 next time and be very happy that they pushed so you could call it.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

I think this is straighfoward, you are drawing to overcards &amp; the nut flush.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

I don't think you can get away from this here.

I think you can if you just coldcall behind the initial raiser preflop (what I would do here most likely).

I also think getting away from this due to the heavy action isn't necessarily a bad idea.

Yugoslav
I also wanna know the damn buyin here...

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

I don't like calling here. If you had lead out on the flop and basically pot commited yourself, it's an easy call, but given the action, your overcard outs are dubious and it's early. I just let it go.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was just a rare situation. And furthermore, it was 3 handed. My plan was to check-raise.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like calling here. If you had lead out on the flop and basically pot commited yourself, it's an easy call, but given the action, your overcard outs are dubious and it's early. I just let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, given the action before me, I wasn't sure what the best line was, but I figured with my two overcards, things looked pretty good.

Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good. That's 6 outs, plus the 9 flush cards. And, a very distant inside straight draw.

So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs, and 47 unseen cards. Two cards to come, that's got to be decent odds. There's 1550 in the pot, with potentially more from the intial bettor still yet to act. I've got 700 to call. 2.2:1 pot odds. Potential implied odds are 2.75:1.

Anyway, what's ringing in the back of my mind is Adanthar's comments to always play pot odds. So, I'm in this boat, and I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?

PS - Yugo, I post here often enough, and frequently give my buyin, but you're right, I should have included. $33 buyin.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was just a rare situation. And furthermore, it was 3 handed. My plan was to check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check/raise might have been fine in other situations but consider the information you already have about the hand. Person in front of you raised, you re-raised, with 1 caller behind you. Original raiser checked thinking you'd bet it, you checked it hoping to check/raise and then... oops... cold-caller has to now actually have a real hand to make a bet. If they missed they'd check it behind. Make a continuation bet like you'd always do, and then you'd call the all-in after some thought.

You know actually after I think about the hand now in these circumstances, I'd be real worried about my overcards if they really are clean outs. If you knew anything about the play of the 2 opponents I'd be more likely to fold this now unless given proper pot odds to chase if you checked, but if it were against unknowns I'd be more willing to call.

Edit: Since they're both going to be all-in anyways on this hand I'd call no matter who I'd be up against and pray for the flush without even worrying about the overcards. Call them insurance.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

If your overcards are good, it is an easy call. If they aren't I think it is an easy fold. (I'm too tired to do any ICMing now).

How often are they good? Well, your hearts make it a lot less likely that either villian is betting a flush draw. A lot of the time one of them will have TPGK and the other will have an overpair.

It's fairly close, but I lean towards folding. If you had bet out the flop, I think it would be a call for sure.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

FOLD? Something tells me you have one guy with a pair of tens trying to protect it and the other is crazy doing a weird all-in move on the flush draw that you have beat. So either you are already ahead with ace high or you have plenty of outs to call with these pot odds, thanks to this third player... With these pot odds you can take the risk.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

I think this is an easier call early on than later. If you bust out, you've not wasted any time and you find another game. If you win, you've got a huge lead from the start. That's a mammoth advantage in most STT's. It's likely going to be 3 way so you've got the odds, and if the guy on your left folds your overcard draws are probably around 50% to be clean. It's even possible (though not likely) that you could get heads up and be in front - UTG+2 could just about have HQJ here.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Call ,though I don't care for the way the hand was played to this point. You have the pot odds to call with just the nut flush draw, even if your overcards are not clean. Later I might change my mind, but first hand I'm in. If I'm wrong, fire up another with very little time invested. My gut tells me your behind here, but I'd live with it.

Later,
Rick

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.

Lori

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

raise more preflop or flat-call.

bet big on the flop.

given where you're at, call it off.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in this boat, and I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba,

I know this isn't perfect math by any means but it gives you a ballpark figure...

With 1 card to come: Number of outs x 2 + 2.
With 2 cards to come: Number of outs x 4 - 4.

With 1 card to come: 14 x 2 + 2 = 30% (actual 30.4%)
With 2 cards to come: 14 x 4 - 4 = 52% (actual 51.2%)

Sorry math wizards, don't flame too much!

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish.

If you're going to talk about outs and pot odds, you have to make an effort at calculating outs. With this much aggression shown, you will often be up against a set, AT, KT, T9 or other hands that may have redraws to your overcards. I think you can count your overcards for 2-3 outs at best. Read SSH for the best reading on discounting outs.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

This table is your probability to hitting a certain # of outs with 2 or 1 card to come and 47 unseen cards. You can handle the math from there.

Outs 2 1
20 67.5% 43.5%
19 65.0% 41.3%
18 62.4% 39.1%
17 59.8% 37.0%
16 57.0% 34.8%
15 54.1% 32.6%
14 51.2% 30.4%
13 48.1% 28.3%
12 45.0% 26.1%
11 41.7% 23.9%
10 38.4% 21.7%
9 35.0% 19.6%
8 31.5% 17.4%
7 27.8% 15.2%
6 24.1% 13.0%
5 20.4% 10.9%
4 16.5% 8.7%
3 12.5% 6.5%
2 8.4% 4.3%
2 4.3% 2.2%

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

"Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.


Quote:
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Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.


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That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish."

I love a good analogy.

on the hand, I would fold, but hate doing it. Smells like a set to me....
results?

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, in this case you figure you have 15 outs. That means you have 32 "bad" cards. So on the turn you will get a bad card 32/47=0.68 of the time and on the river you will get a bad card 31/46=0.67.

So you will get 2 bad cards (0.68)*(0.67)=0.45 of the time. So you will get at least 1 good card 1-0.45=55% of the time.

Basically you calculate the probability of getting 2 bad cards and calclulate the inverse.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Hmmmm...

At first glance it looks like an easy call. But there is no way you have 15 clean outs here.

Let's assume worst case one Villan A is in with A10 (takes away your 3 ace outs) and Villan B is all in on something like a set or QJ hearts which takes away 3 of your heart outs (8 does you no good) and all of your K's are dead. In either case you are down to around 6-10 outs with possible redraws to a straight flush, straight (if you only hit an ace) or boat.

That's worse case though. It's early enough and for enough chips I can certainly see the reasoning for calling and gambeling it up.

This is a GUT call or FOLD.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, I'm in this boat, and I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the other posters covered it, but here's a handy reference as well.

The Results
 

Well, I called, and here's what happened.

UTG+2 (allin before me) QQ
MP2 folded

And I hit the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
My plan was to check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with the check-raise is that there's just too much money in the pot compared to your stacks. If MP2 bets the pot and UTG2 calls, you can push, but nobody is going to fold any kind of hand.

If UTG2 had just called and you pushed, there would be about 1700 in the pot and they'd only have to call about 400 more after you push.

Even if UTG2 had folded, MP2 isn't going to fold AT or JJ to your checkraise.

If you had simply pushed instead of checking, now AT/JJ has to make a decision. I'm sure someone is going to say "no one on party will fold those hands". I disagree. I play party, and I would fold them.

You reraised pre-flop. If you push the flop, they have to put you on AA/KK. They might even have to lay down QQ here.

Going back to your original question. I supposed I'd call here and pray that UTG2 has QQ. I've gone back and forth a few times in my mind. AA/KK/TT are strong possibilities. I'd guess MP2 has JJ, maybe TT/99...ugh...maybe I should go back to limit holdem, my head hurts.


edit: He had QQ? Whew. This is easier after you know the opponent's cards.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basing your decision on pots odds you are in the right direction. However, I believe Lorinda summed up the answer to this thread very succinctly.

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, Lorinda's succinct analysis blows all others out of the water. She even had to mix it up a bit as "riverring quads" was not an option. Good work Lori.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out when you need 2 specific cards (QJ- 134:1) as in this case. It's about 1/8 of an out.

Re: The Results
 

Obviously having 2 others in the pot increases your implied odds but how did you consider the fact that MP2 was left to act after your decision...did you count on him folding or coming in? I guess at a 33 im not too worried about a 2pr here but a set is not out of the realm. (pots sized bet on flop with flush draw could mean this from MP2...maybe not worth considering)

I like getting away cheap here instead of hoping for a 9/47 (probably less)...and, yes, Lorinda got this right given how early this was...you gamble it up here and its sort of win/win depending on how u look at it...

n1

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ken, you pretty much talked through what you should do at the table, which is kind of what I did. I came to the conclusion of 10 to be conservative. My feeling was that if I was going to assume more than 10, then might as well assume my ace or king (or both) are live for sure. Which were my optimistic thoughts.

Oh, and I think the conclusion of $/hr vs. ROI decision is an easy way out of this debate. I do think it's an important concept tho.

What I'm getting at, is figure the probabilities I'm up against a lower pair (like QQ), I'm up against another draw, or a pure bluff (like MP2) vs. the possibility of a set, or a pair of KKs or AAs. All told, I figure to be a coinflip here at worst for a lot of chips.

Huh, I think I just talked my way into $/hr vs ROI. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: The Results
 

The perfect scenario for you. You did have 15 clean outs.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out

[/ QUOTE ]

You're undoubtedly right. Since I was using it to 'balance' other unlikely occurances, probably harmless in this case, but I have to watch it for cases when it would make a difference.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Your preflop reraise perplexes me. For a tight player, reraising AKs to an UTG raise early in a tournament seems a bit reckless. I'd call the raise.

But, if I were to reraise, it would be to about 140. 100? What was that about? You trying to build a pot?

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.

[ QUOTE ]
So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think more. Post less.

Re: The Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
The perfect scenario for you. You did have 15 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs. I think assuming less than 9 is way too tight. And assuming more than 11 is way too optimistic. That's kind of how I settled in on 10.

That being said, in terms of increasing ROI, this is a fold.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.


Quote:
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So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs


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Quote:
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My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.


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Think more. Post less.


[/ QUOTE ]

Bball, you are correct. My intent was to start the discussion with the total number of outs, and then work backwards. Do you do it any different? Perhaps I should have stated it all, and succinctly in my first post, but I was tired, and I don't have a chart showing me the odds with two cards to come.

But you're correct, if you believe I am trying to claim my total thought process, disjointed as it appears in this thread, as an afterthought, then I am the fool.

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
But, if I were to reraise, it would be to about 140. 100? What was that about? You trying to build a pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmmm, good line. This might explain some questions in other parts of my game. No, building a pot is not my intent. Do you think that a raise to 100 signifies pot building? Particularly, that it will induce another call behind me? (forget the results, meaning, you think MP2 would have been more likely to fold whatever hand he had? and more likely isolate this hand down to just UTG+2?)

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
Think more. Post less.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're advice is that I should NOT post hands that I have questions on? Then, out of curiosity, what is the point of this forum?

Scuba

Re: Chasing flush draws
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.

[ QUOTE ]
So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think more. Post less.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, Scuba, but I can't let this go. You can't post these 2 statements in the same thread and expect any credibility from anyone that's paying attention.

[ QUOTE ]
So, these are my in the game thoughts...
I've got 15 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think more. Post less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what the problem with this is. I think it is pretty clear what he meant.

Scuba is posting a lot of hands and generating a lot of interesting discussion. There is very clear evidence that this was a good post as the poll is just about 50/50.

Without Scuba around the board would be filled up by ForumBot, GF, and 'Is this ROI sustainable?'.

Scuba has plenty of credibility and (I'm trying to express this without it sounding like an insult) I commend him for exploring a lot of hands with an open mind rather than just trying to appear smart, which is most of what I try and do.

Re: The Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The perfect scenario for you. You did have 15 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs. I think assuming less than 9 is way too tight. And assuming more than 11 is way too optimistic. That's kind of how I settled in on 10.

That being said, in terms of increasing ROI, this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, first of all, please quit using the word assume when referring to possible holdings of opponents. It is retarded and wrong. Calculating outs is not an exercise in reaching an assumption, but rather an exercise in reaching a reasonable estimate of how live particular cards may be in giving you the best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
All this proves is that you can't go too low on you're assumed number of outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't "prove" anything. There still is a chance that the hot chick was feigning disinterest to see how committed you were to making your move and you were going to score immediately without having to offer up so much as a dinner. It's like saying if the results were that one villian had 8h7h and the other villian had AdAc, that it "proves" you were way too optimistic because you actually only had slightly less than 5 outs.