I'm looking for a reason not to give up on this hand....

[razor]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>,

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, Hero ????

MP2 seems decent enough not to get too far out of line, ie. he has something that beats my hand. There's a ton of bets in the pot but UTG+1 has sprung to life after watching MP2 and I get into a raising war on the flop. Can anyone find a reason here for me to grit my teeth and call?

[B Dids]

Umm... 'cause you like drawing to a gutshot for a split? MP2 screams KJ to me. Do you think UTG+1 will 3-bet?

[k000k]

Thats a rough raise preflop... Well, lessee here, you have top pair with a good kicker, there's a total rainbow on the board, the pot is really damn big, and I doubt the guy has KJ, since he is forcing a lotta players to call 2 cold.

However, reasons TO fold may outweigh that... Nobody seems to be scared of top pair, or everyone's an absolute maniac. With all that turn action, I dunno if your top pair is good here. MP2 capped the flop and shows no signs of slowing down whatsoever.. 5 outs requires 8:1, which you are just *barely* getting, and if UTG re-raises, you WON'T be getting.. That's 5 outs assuming they're all good, which they may not be. 2 pair may not win anyway, so I'd give you 3.5 or so, and the pot isn't even close to big enough to call for that.

This whole thing reeks of a set to me.. If you have any respect for this player, or NO read for that matter, I'd fold. There's just too much resistance...

[razor]

UTG+1 was undeterred by all previous action and comes out firing on the turn showing no fear, I thought there was a reasonable chance he'd 3 bet.

MP2's play felt more like a made hand too me in this situation. Not to say players don't play OESDs like this, just didn't feel like it here.

[Jaran]

Hey razor,
It looks to me like you're up against a set and a str8 or 2 str8s. Fold and wait until a better opportunity.

-Jaran

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 screams KJ to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldnt make 3 ppl cold call 2 if you're drawing an OESD would ya? Or cap after 3 folded and only 3 are left, that's -EV for sure.. I think he'd wait for the turn for that...

I say it's a set...

[razor]

Players are way loose at this table, but aren't maniacs. There may be a few crap hands along for the ride but players wouldn't be driving the action with hands that fear TPGK.

[LeftBack]

[ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't make 3 ppl cold call 2 if you're drawing an OESD would ya?


[/ QUOTE ]

Never thought of it that way. Thanks for the insight.

[B Dids]

I'm reading things backwards. UTG+1 has KJ... and he will 3-bet. I like a fold here.

[razor]

This was my thinking. I couldn't come up with a reason to continue and folded. UTG+1 3 bet the Turn and MP2 capped.

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm reading things backwards. UTG+1 has KJ... and he will 3-bet. I like a fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I suppose UTG+1 could have KJ... MP2 got all my attention when I was picking this apart, but KJ is a reasonable holding for him..

So Razor, how'd it end? Now I really really need to know.. UTG with KJ and MP2 with TT?

[razor]

You're giving UTG+1 a bit too much credit but then why wouldn't you since he cold-called an UTG raise from a guy with a VP$IP of about 21.5%. Surely, he wouldn't call with something like J8o here would he? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[chief444]

I fold. You're getting nearly 10:1 on the cold-call but it sure looks like there will be a 3-bet and maybe cap and with all of the action you probably have only 4 outs, which could very well result in a split pot. I really don't see your two Q outs being good here more than half of the time and your K outs I don't think will be good very often either.

[razor]

I've had enough responses that are thinking along the same lines as I was so I'll post the results. As expected I'm behind here, don't have much in the way of outs and was gonna have to pay the max to see the river. Folding seems the only legitmate option... just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.

And, of course, MHWHBG...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>,

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, Hero folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (26.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 29.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 29.75 BB, between UTG+1, MP2 and Button.</font>

Results below:
UTG+1 shows Jc 8h (straight, queen high).
MP2 shows Tc Qd (two pair, queens and tens).
Button shows 8s 5s (straight, queen high).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 14.87 BB. Button wins 14.87 BB.

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
Surely, he wouldn't call with something like J8o here would he? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure he would, everyone else on party does! Makes me /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[chief444]

Makes me /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[B Dids]

I was still mixing him up with the other guy who "wasn't out of line". Either way- he had the straight- I read goot. (except for hand histories, where I've been unable to read them at all this week. My brain is not my friend).

[razor]

I'm trying to figure out why if some goofball who sees +50% of the flops raises he gets respect and most fold. But when I raise one of two things happens - everyone calls anyway and someone finds some way to crush my hand or everyone bails and I'm left with only the blinds.

Of course it doesn't always happen like this, but it sure seems like it does.

I counteract negative feelings by checking my poker accounts, they usually tell me things are fine (maybe not as outstanding as I would like but fine enuff).

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
And, of course, MHWHBG...

[/ QUOTE ]
The important thing is you made the right decision and read the situation properly. You had 3 outs (since one of the J's was in an opponents hand) and would have had to call 4BB's to see the river. Whatever the results, this would have clearly been a mistake.

[EverettKings]

Don't let the fact that you would have sucked out mask the fact that it would have been a bad call. I'll save Strasser his breath and say "Don't be results oriented." Nice hand /images/graemlins/laugh.gif