Is this normal for Party?

[badplayer]

This is my first hand I'm posting. First some background: I stopped playing a PartyPoker eight weeks ago. A few days ago, they deposited $15 into my account. I figure it's their money. I'll just play and see what happens, half-expecting just to lose it quickly.

After just a few hours of play, i was up to $80 and the bonus cleared after 90 raked hands. After what happened to me the first time I played at Party, I knew I should just take the money and run. But no, like last time, I played until I went broke. And it's hands like this that make me wonder about PartyPoker. The wild swings are just insane. You either win a fortune or lose a fortune.

So I think I played this okay. If not, please let me know where I went wrong. But what I really want to know is if it's just me or is this typical at Party. I probably won't play at Party any more (or at least until they give me more money). But I will continue to play at Royal Vegas where I generally do well and at least made back all the money I lost at Party.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (4 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB calls.

River: (7 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11 BB, between Hero and MP2.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP2 (11 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Ac Kh (two pair, aces and kings).
MP2 shows 5c 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: MP2 wins 11 BB. </font>

With the raise on the river, I had MP2 on the more obvious flush.
Was this a bad call?

Thanks for the input.

[tech]

You should have raised this hand preflop. Maybe he would not have been around to catch that river card.

To answer your question, yes this is typical at Party. That is why I play there. I love people like your opponent who hang around trying to catch a 2-outer. Good luck to you.

[zram21]

Raise preflop.

Even if your opponent doesn't fold before the flop since he now thinks you probably have a big hand he is more likely to fold before he gets to the river. Even if he doesn't he did exactly what you wanted him to do. Certainly it hurts when they hit their two outer, but you want that guy drawing two outs every single time.

[citizenkn]

This stuff happens...it stinks, but it does happen. You should have raised pre-flop, but other than that you played it fine, and to be honest I think this guy was gonna stick around for the river no matter what.

If you're seeing swings THAT big at the micro-limits, you should maybe take some time to examine your play and see if maybe there are things you could do to reduce your bankroll swings. Maybe you're chasing too much, or calling raises with less than solid hands. Post some other hands and get some comments.....

[badplayer]

Thanks for the help. Yeah, looking back, I should have raised pre-flop. But like you said, he was likely going to stick around anyways.

And I know that's a good thing. We want players to stick around like this. The problem is that, at Party, it's been my experience that they hit their outs more often than not. Maybe it only seems that way to me, since I do so badly there. Or maybe I'm just a bad player. I'd like to think of myself as tight-aggressive. But probably, as you can see from my previous example, I'm much more weak-tight. Something I really need to work on.

Thanks.

[Sloats]

looks like BB didn't hit his outer.

[ThePimpulator]

Many people are making very good money at Party Poker. Think about it rationally. We are micro/low limit players. What is more likely? That there is a scam going on? Or that we are leaking chips in a number of areas of our game?

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
But like you said, he was likely going to stick around anyways.


And I know that's a good thing. We want players to stick around like this. The problem is that, at Party, it's been my experience that they hit their outs more often than not. Maybe it only seems that way to me, since I do so badly there. Or maybe I'm just a bad player. I'd like to think of myself as tight-aggressive. But probably, as you can see from my previous example, I'm much more weak-tight. Something I really need to work on.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You couldn't have gotten that guy out of there with dynamite. He's a low limit calling station, and he's in there for the duration. He probably would have called on the end if he didn't hit trips, just to "keep you honest."

Any one player doesn't hit his suck out draw at Party any more often than anyplace else. The difference is that there are more of them hanging on to the end at Party, so there is a greater likelihood of one of them sucking out. It's called Implicit Collusion. With more people in the pot who don't belong there, it is as if they are colluding against the good player. The result is that you win fewer pots, but they should be bigger when you do win. I haven't seen any numbers on it, but I would think that the variance at Party would be great than elsewhere because of this.

Also, are you using Poker Tracker? Reality doesn't always conform to our self-image. I always considered myself to be tight-aggressive, but PT told me otherwise. So I'm working on playing tighter and more aggressively.

[citizenkn]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the help. Yeah, looking back, I should have raised pre-flop. But like you said, he was likely going to stick around anyways.

And I know that's a good thing. We want players to stick around like this. The problem is that, at Party, it's been my experience that they hit their outs more often than not. Maybe it only seems that way to me, since I do so badly there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I played two table .50-$1 this morning. At one table, I lost $25 in an hour, with people outdrawing my great hands every time I turned around (set of nines outdrawn by backdoor flush, etc). But at the other table I made $40 in the same hour, with my good hands holding up against people calling with nothing but middle pair and wishful thinking. So in the end, the good luck will always even up with the bad luck, and your skill is what will make the difference between losing and winning.

[cardcounter0]

Yes. This is normal Party.

Raise preflop, the pair of fives might have folded when both Ace and King hit the board, instead of merely checking/calling all the way to hit his river trips.

I notice the BB stayed in donating all the way and folding on the river, what more could you want?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[lefty rosen]

Do you want some cheese with that wine? Buddy it's the lowest limit at the site stupid play abounds. All sites at their lowest limits have dumb players. If you want better play move up and get the opposite of that not getting paid off.

[LeftBack]

[ QUOTE ]
it's been my experience that they hit their outs more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your instincts are wrong. Keep reading the forum.

[tardigrade]

If you're a good player, bad players are going to suckout on you all the time. It's the only way they can win against you, because 8 out of 10 times you're in the pot, you have the best hand. Your other option is to sit at a table where no one is dumping money into the pot with a 5% chance of winning. You'll win more pots, but they won't be very big.

[bigdmajor]

First off, I don't concider myself a good player. But I do think that flushes and str8s happen more often than they should at party. I don't have the full version of poker tracker, so i've maxed out my 1k hands and therefore, don't have the stats to back my claim up.

However, I do play a few weekly live games as well as my on-line play. It been my simple observation that str8s and flushes come out more often at party. I don't mean thatmore people catch thier str8s or flushes, I mean there are more on the board at party.

[sfer]

I doubt it.

[cardcounter0]

"But I do think that flushes and str8s happen more often than they should at party."

How often should flushes and str8s happen?

I think every time I wash my car it seems to rain a lot more often than it should.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gojacketz]

I have played a bit of the .50/1.00 and I have four or five players in my notes that will call down to the river, no matter what the pot size, with an underpair to the board. Not sure if they think it is good or if they are hoping to get lucky, but it will definitely happen.

Put this guy on your list and make it a point to play with him if possible - he will add money to you bankroll in the long run.

Gojacketz

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
"But I do think that flushes and str8s happen more often than they should at party."

How often should flushes and str8s happen?

I think every time I wash my car it seems to rain a lot more often than it should.


[/ QUOTE ]

Check the place where you bought your Party Poker pattern map. They have a new one out for weather.

[bigdmajor]

flushes should happen 0.414% of the time
str8s should happen 1.52% of the time
(look it up, i think this is right http://wizardofodds.com/games/wildholdem.html)

Go play 0.5/1 at party see if you think this fits /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[jedi]

Without even looking at the hand: Yes, this is normal.

After looking at the hand: Wow, but yes it's normal.
And raise pre-flop.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
flushes should happen 0.414% of the time
str8s should happen 1.52% of the time
(look it up, i think this is right http://wizardofodds.com/games/wildholdem.html)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. That page gives you the probability for a 5 card game. Normal hold 'em is a 7 card game.

[LeftBack]

Actually, if you give seven cards, the odds are higher:

Flush: 3%
Straight: 4.6%

http://wizardofodds.com/games/pokerodd.html

[cardcounter0]

No, those are the odds of a single player getting a flush or straght with 5 cards.

Holdem uses 5 community cards, and if 10 players see the flop, 20 more cards (ten sets of 2 cards) are used to form 5 card hands. Quite a different story.

I think the flops in PartyPoker come 3-suited, or 4-suited, and the really rare 5-suited (.414% of the time) almost exactly what probability would predict.

Now can you explain why after I wash my car, if it doesn't rain, a bird almost immediately poops on it far more often than I think it should?

[bigdmajor]

fair enough, I still think that flushes and str8s happen way more than 3/4.6% at party .5/1. I'll start keeping track.

(P.S. I hope I'm wrong, I would like to trust the party program)

[sfer]

Is that the probability of being dealt a straight or a flush? If so, remember that each pot is actually several hands, so the probability is likely higher.

[cardcounter0]

There is a casino "carnival game" called Three Card Poker.

It is called a carnival game because the house edge is high, and your chances of being a long term winner are about the same as knocking over all the milk bottles at the baseball game and winning the big prize at a rigged carnival.

Each player is dealt three cards. A lot of the appeal and why people keep playing is because of the number of near misses. You get two suited and an odd card (gee, just one card away from the flush). You get suited connectors and a gapper. (Darn, almost a straight, gee one card off from the big payoff straight flush!). Some one pointed out that the probability of getting a near miss is greater than getting a complete blank. Over half the time, you are just one card away from a winner.

So flop three cards. Chances are they are two suited, or bunched for a possible 1 gapper straght, or something. Now give a bunch of people Two more cards. Lo and behold, you start seeing a bunch of flushes and straights completed. Amazing!

One time, just as it was exiting the car wash, a whole flock of pigeons flew over and bombarded my car. I mean what are the odds? My car wasn't even completely out of the car wash, and at that exact moment, all these birds overhead cut loose. I think the car wash operator had purposely trained those birds, and I don't wash my car there any more. Later that night, it rained.
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[tardigrade]

Even that 3-4% is for 7 cards just dumped out of the deck. (Basically one player's 7-card stud hand). Odds are going to be higher than that for 10 players playing 2 cards against a shared 5. I haven't done the math yet, but it would be interesting to see it done. Since straights and flushes beat most hands, if everyone's holding on to their draws, then I think overall straights and flushes will win quite a bit. (If everyone keeps any possible draw to the end.)

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I do play a few weekly live games as well as my on-line play. It been my simple observation that str8s and flushes come out more often at party.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you wholeheartedly. And I am also of the strong belief that the higher amount of straights and flushes are due to an evil party conspiracy rather than the fact that you see 3 times as many hands an hour at party than in live games.

[bigdmajor]

I see your point about the card game, but the car reference doesn’t make sense. I’m basing my conclusion about party poker based on my online play vs. my live play. So, to use your car analogy, it would be like owning two cars, a red one and a blue one. The red one gets sh!t on by birds more often than the blue one after washing them both.

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/7027/birdcrap.jpg

[bigdmajor]

right on my man, but I don't think there is a conspiracy. I think that party simply has a poor poker program.

[LeftBack]

Those are individual odds.

Calculations for a table are much more complicated, but it's definitely not proportional to the number of players.

The probability forum has the answers, if you're really serious about it.

[cardcounter0]

I guess it is because I am more aware of bird poop after I wash my car.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif
Online you are seeing about twice as many hands per hour as a B&amp;M cardroom.

more hands = more flushes.

It is real easy to play online regularly and put in a lot of hours per week, but you probably only go to the B&amp;M cardroom once a week, if that, for a few hours (and drive time back and forth doesn't count).

more hours X more hands = more flushes.

Then factor in that at a live game, players are less likely to throw in $3 or $6 bucks to chase some impossible runner-runner straight or flush. Hell, amazingly enough, sometimes everybody folds, and you don't even see a river card. That never happens at low limit Party. Every flop is taken to the river, and 90% of the players chase anything, so you are going to see and increased percentage of made hands.

more hours X more hands X more chasers = more flushes.

[sfer]

Agreed. The cumulative probability of a straight or a flush shouldn't increase quickly since the possibility of a 5 card hand is bounded by what's possible on the board, but nonetheless with more hands playing the probability does go up as a straight or flush becomes possible.

For example, if the board is A4378 with three clubs, a straight or flush is more likely with all 10 players seeing the showdown than heads-up.

[bigdmajor]

you're right about the more hands/hour. But i play three live games a week with different people for about 3/4 hours each time. I only play online a few time a week when i'm bored. I'm absolutely sure I play more live hands.

Also, my live games are .5/1. Same as online.

[Sloats]

Last night I actually saw the table fold twice to the big blind. It took me 30 minutes to realize that this was not a 0.50/1.00 table to make money on.

[B Dids]

Must raise preflop. If you raise preflop and then show strength on the flop and turn maybe he doesn't see the river.

Moreover, you mention that raising wouldn't have folded him, but that's not what you want. You're not raising to fold him, you're raising for value because you've got a great hand.

[bigdmajor]

So, I've started keeping track:
This is pencil and paper, so bear with.

After ~1k hands

203 won with a str8 or flush (or better)

-These were the hands I saw

Make of it what you

[bigdmajor]

tried to reply one time before, so if this is a duplicate post please forgive.

I started keeping track, but its pencil and paper, so bear with:

After~1k hands 203 were won with straight or flush (or better)
make of it what you will. To me this seems more than in real play

[LeftBack]

There's nothing unnatural about your results:

Winning hands from 8666 games:

Did Not Show = 3194
Two Pair = 1614
One Pair = 1166
Three of a Kind = 682
Straight = 592 (6.8%) (7-card was 4.6%)
Flush = 562 (6.5%) (7-card was 3%)
Full House = 480 (5.5%)
Four of a Kind = 42 (.5%)
Straight Flush = 5 (0%)

Total, for straight or better = 19.3%, close to your 20%.

This is for 78440 total hands dealt, so the individual odds about doubled (fast and very loose analysis) with 9 players. That doesn't seem unreasonable, really.

And, of course, as usual, 8666 games don't mean much.

Am I having a good run or a bad run? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Blarg]

Flushes and straights DO come out more at Party's loose, lower limit games, but there's no trick to it. It's just that at those super loose game, people play more hands and take more of them to the turn and river. Your impression is correct. Go to tighter tables at Party or elsewhere and you'll see a lot fewer straights and flushes, because fewer people will stick around with draws in the first place, and fewer will play backdoor draws or just play hands "for fun."

And with more people in the pot in the super loose games, they're actually getting the odds to play their straights and flushes more often too, both pot odds and implied odds. So not just bad players go in on drawing hands all the time on Party -- good players do it too, just maybe for a different reason. But it comes out to the same thing.

As to the guy with the 5's and whether you should have raised -- well, raising is often the best idea, but more to get more money in the pot when you have the best hand than to chase anybody out. They're not leaving anyway. But you'd like them to lose more when they stay in and lose.

Heck, I've seen tons of guys cold call not just a bet but a raise with any pair in any position on Party -- and call that raise even from the tighest of players, even when Mr. Rock is in early position. Party players very often don't care who a bet comes from or how much it is, pre-flop especially, but they almost always have no respect for position at all. If they feel like playing, they're playing, period!

Trying to bump these guys out by check-raising the turn can sometimes be more persuasive than trying to bet or raise preflop or on the flop. Lots of guys play anything for a small bet or two, but once they're facing two BIG bets because you've just check raised, and perhaps another raise from the original bettor if the raises keep going, their pair of 5's starts looking a bit smaller.

Plus, you are making people have worse odds to draw out on you if there is less money in the pot and they suddenly have to cold call two big bets when a raise comes booming in at them. A pot built up by early raises gives them a pot that gives them greater justification to chase you down; a more moderate pot they have to eat two big bets to participate in makes them pay a real premium to drag their sorry cards to the river.

Whether you want to do that or not depends on a lot of things, but it is true that a raise preflop does absolutely nothing in certain games, and even can create a big enough pot to justify people calling all the way to the end. And it's also true that, in that kind of game, you can get better value sometimes by saving your raise for the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
If you're a good player, bad players are going to suckout on you all the time. It's the only way they can win against you, because 8 out of 10 times you're in the pot, you have the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Tardigrade was right on the button. Losing to suck-outs is the norm if you're a good or at least a tight player, for just the reasons he says.

[bigdmajor]

so should i move up to 1/2$. Or is that just as loose at party? Should I go somewhere else? Where are there tighter games?

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
Now can you explain why after I wash my car, if it doesn't rain, a bird almost immediately poops on it far more often than I think it should?

[/ QUOTE ]
Like raccoons and women, they're attracted to (and crap themselves at the sight of) shiny/sparkly objects.

[LeftBack]

You can find tight games at Party:

Look for smaller pots before choosing a table. That's usually a clue.
Don't play on the weekends. That's when the fish come out.
Move to $1/$2 if you feel ready. $1/$2 is supposedly even tighter than $2/$4.

Try Paradise, it's tighter than Party, IMO. Or, Poker Stars. It's even tighter than Paradise.

Good Luck.