Bubbling

[Prickly Pete]

Party 200+15, 4 left 50-100, I have 1600 on the button with AKo. UTG (275) folds - damn. SB has 1400, BB has 6725. BB has reraised allin any non allin bets while on the bubble and has shown 83, 62, TT etc. If I go allin, I expect he will call with any decent hand (including all pairs). If I make a small raise, I'm 99% sure he will raise allin with any 2.

What's the play?

[ClimbRock512]

Do you peg him to be a strong player? one capable of folding to what appears to be a superior hand?

If you limp will he raise allowing you to push?

What about a strong bet but not a push?

Try something you haven't tried before.

You could always limp/fold becuase UTG has a good chance of busting next hand. Is he only pushing all in? Very good chance you have a better hand than he does, so maybe just push and you'll be a favorite or he'll fold.

I hate to see a fold with AK with no raises preflop. Its poker, all you can do is get your money in with the best hand. Which you will most likely do. Should you get outdrawn.... well so is poker. If you double up, you now have a much better chance of taking first.

Conclusion: Push.
If you don't want to risk it, raise to 350 and dump to a raise, but I think push is the move, you can't be too far behind if you aren't a favorite.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
If you limp will he raise allowing you to push?

What about a strong bet but not a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 99% confident he will push allin with any 2 cards on anything less than an allin raise by me.

[Nepa]

Myself I would fold with the UTG playin' with 275 and an over aggressive big stack just wanting to put you all-in. The only other move is all-in if you are looking more for the win than just the money.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Unless you think he'll fold about half the time you push in, just fold and see if the short stack makes it through the blinds. You have 16 big blinds left. You don't have to force the issue yet.

[PrayingMantis]

This is an interesting situation.

Let's put it this way - you raise 3XBB, SB folds and BB pushes. You see his cards: he has, say, J9o.

Do you call?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

See, I don't want this situation with one player being so short-stacked. In your scenario, he loses 30% of the time, and the 70% of the time he does win, he doesn't necessarily double his $EV.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
See, I don't want this situation with one player being so short-stacked. In your scenario, he loses 30% of the time, and the 70% of the time he does win, he doesn't necessarily double his $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you'll lose more: about 35% of the time. But if I understand what you're saying here, making this 3XBB raise and then call his all-in, is marginal even with, say QQ, since you'll find yourself, against this guy, losing between 15-30% of the time. Not a huge difference.

[alieneyes]

With this level of confidence I'd be tempted to try an induce a bluff by limping, which I'd call. Yes you're on the bubble but you have a good chance to double up and I've got to believe this is + EV given how 3200 in chips would give you solid second chip position and put you almost equal. If it doesn't get raised you can play accordingly on the flop.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If the short stack has 800 instead of 275, it's a much closer call. Here, why bother messing with a big stack who won't fold when all three other players can take the little guy out with minimal risk?

[Jason Strasser]

Nice situation. I love this stuff.

In my experience, a big stack here does not like calling the all in with mediocre hands. If you raise anything less than all in, the big stack should, and will push you all in (I would with 23o).

This is a raise/fold situation. The poster who suggested limping in is wrong, because a smart bigstack will just push all in.

Your main objective here is to steal the blinds. You do NOT want to be called in this spot. However, if you do get called, AK stands a fair shot, and is slightly favored or a coinflip with any hand (cept AAKK, u knew that).

I raise all in here. You will get respect. If you get called by 22 and lose, thats rough. But I think in the long run two things will happen:

1) You will steal blinds and those are wonderful
2) You will double up against maybe a loose call

Sure you will bust, but I think as a big stack in that spot, I fold most of my hands. That raise gets the ultimate respect.

[Prickly Pete]

Thanks for all the responses.

I decided to go the famed Zee Justin route of "F*** 3rd Place" and got greedy. Rather than go allin and get called by his best 30%(?), I decided to induce the reraise by raising to 275. Sure enough, he comes over the top allin and I call. Unfortunately, he has a hand this time - JJ. And I get no help.

The more I think about it, I still think it's close either way. Although, I'd really like my play better if I had a big pair.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I decided to go the famed Zee Justin route of "F*** 3rd Place"

Folding here, in this specific situation, is not "playing for 3rd place."

And just to counter the "F 3rd place" argument. 1st place is only 2.5x 3rd place. 3rd place is infinitely bigger than 4th place.

[Jason Strasser]

Folding here is weak. I understand the situation on the bubble, yadda yadda, but folding is downright weak. I can not believe people are considering it. Pushing all in seems like the best overall play, second to inducing an all in push from the big stack. Folding is a distant third.

[jaybee_70]

It's weak to let a player who doesn't have enough chips to make it through the blinds back his way into the money. Kurn is right here. Wait 3 hands to be aggressive.
Joe

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Unless you think the big stack will fold more than half the time you raise all-in, anything other than folding is just a stupid gambling play.

To quote Tommy Angelo: "I'd rather be weak-tight than strong-broke."

That quote fits this circumstance perfectly.

[Beavis68]

Well, do you went to win it? Is your bankroll big enough for 200+15?

I would go all-in, and hope he calls. You aren't going to win this without doubling up, and you will have enough chips to make him think. If you pick up the pot here, you will be on nearly equal footing with him, and that should take a lot of the fire out of his sails.

If you fold here, you are missing a good opponturnity to double up.

That is how I would play it at MY level, but I don't play 215s. but the right play is the right play regardless of level.

If you fold, I feel you are surrendering 1st place. The money is so much better for first than it is for 3rd, I think it is worth the chance.

[PrayingMantis]

Jason,

I think this hand is very close, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if folding is the highest $EV move.

That's why I'll put this to you this way:

Same exact hand, only UTG has 50 chips (not very different from what he has), and big stack on BB will call all-in or raise you all-in with ANYTHING.

Do you still think folding is weak, and the bubble is yadda yadda? I'm really behind you with "the bubble is your friend" attitude, that's how I play. However, the bubble is a real entity. 35% percent of busting here and not making the money, and let mini-stack cash instead of you, is not neccesarily comparable $EV-wise to the chips you earn when you do double up.

The scenario above is very similar to the real hand, as PP has described it, only a little more extreme.

Opinions?

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to go the famed Zee Justin route of "F*** 3rd Place"

Folding here, in this specific situation, is not "playing for 3rd place."

And just to counter the "F 3rd place" argument. 1st place is only 2.5x 3rd place. 3rd place is infinitely bigger than 4th place.

[/ QUOTE ]

3rd place is a profit of $185 1st is a profit of 785 - that is is a 4.24x

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
It's weak to let a player who doesn't have enough chips to make it through the blinds back his way into the money. Kurn is right here. Wait 3 hands to be aggressive.
Joe

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no gaurantee that the short stack will go out - what do you do if he triples up? I have seen that happen over and over again.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You aren't going to win this without doubling up

This is perhaps the least intelligent thing said yet in this thread.

Of course you're not going to win without getting more chips, that's obvious. What's stupid is thinking you have to do it this hand and risk coming away with $0 1/3 of the time.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

There is no gaurantee that the short stack will go out

There is no guarantee, and if he had 2-3x as many chips as he has, I'd probably be less inclined to play cautiously here, but in this case, on this orbit, you have to give him the chance to go out.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
3rd place is a profit of $185 1st is a profit of 785 - that is is a 4.24x


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a serious mistake. The money you paid for this is already gone. If you look at things this way, I'm not sure you should play 215$, if you do play them.

1st place is profit of 1000$, and 3rd place is profit of 400$. 1st is exactly 2.5 times 3rd.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

that is is a 4.24x

Still a hell of a lot smaller multiple than infinity.

[Jason Strasser]

You are all under the assumption that the big stack will call 50% of your all ins. Whoa. Really? Why would he do that?

If that is the case, CLEARLY folding is the best option. My argument is that if you push, you will NOT get called often enough to make this play -EV. This raise gets the ultimate respect because of the circumstances. The big stack wants to grow, but he should know what he's up against.

Do you fold JJ here too?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
You are all under the assumption that the big stack will call 50% of your all ins. Whoa. Really? Why would he do that?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are showing an unwillingness (does this word exist?) to look at the situation as it is, without predetermined notions about what is "weak".

Big stack has 6700. Hero has 1600. I do not play the 215$, but where I do play (up to 55$), there certainly are players who will call all-ins with huge stacks (and certainly will raise all-in), with many many hands. It does not matter if they are good or bad, and what are their motives (for this question). That's just how they play. According to PP's description in the OP, this is the kind of player we are facing here.

[ QUOTE ]
My argument is that if you push, you will NOT get called often enough to make this play -EV. This raise gets the ultimate respect because of the circumstances. The big stack wants to grow, but he should know what he's up against.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this argument, that it's only about the bilnds you win - which are 150 chips (!!!), to remind you. You risk facing a 65:35 showdown (that will probably be the most usual case here), or worse, i.e, a wrong side of a coin flip [Edit: this showdown is actually more probable].(yes, if he's on A or K you're in a better shape, but this will happen more rarely), for ALL your chips, when a tini-stack is very very close to bust. According to your logic, pushing here will make sense with many more hands. This is, obviously, not the case. So, I do not understand your argument.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold JJ here too?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about JJ or any other hand, and I'm not sure about folding either, I'm only trying to think about it. But it seems to me that you're very very fast on deciding folding is weak and pushing is great. I don't see why it's so simple.

[Prickly Pete]

PM, I seem to have ended up closest to you in terms of where I stand on it. That is, it's a close decision.

And just to clear things up on how I viewed the situation. The blinds of 150 were pretty meaningless to me. Not worth much of a risk. But I saw an opportunity with a big stack bubble bully to double up through him.

If I raise allin, I estimated he calls with his best 25-30% of hands. This will include roughly 6% that are pairs and I am a slight dog. But I am a 2 to 1 or more favorite over the rest.

If I raise small, I know he will go allin, so I add in the other 70-75% of hands, that I'll be a 2 to 1 favorite or more against. I figured if I was willing to gamble, I may as well play against his worst hands too. So basically it comes down to AK vs. random hand. Sadly, I can't spout of the % on that, but I'd guess around 2 to 1.

If I had to do it again, I'd strongly consider folding (and punching UTG for not going allin and making this easy for me.) /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Oh, and while I agree with Jason's general treatment of the bubble play, I think the blinds have to be substantially higher to easily justify the play.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
But I saw an opportunity with a big stack bubble bully to double up through him.... If I raise small, I know he will go allin, so I add in the other 70-75% of hands, that I'll be a 2 to 1 favorite or more against

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your line of thought. Your read exposed an achilles heel of your opponent that allowed you to manipulate him into doing what you want when you almost certainly have the best of it.

Although, it might surprise you know that: AKo is 1.7:1 favorite over the range of "top-25%" hands, increases only slightly to 1.9:1 when looking at a range of the top-40% hands, and remains flat 1.9:1 against the top-67% and all random hands.

http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html

[Prickly Pete]

Thanks d. That link saves me from asking someone for it in another post.

[Jason Strasser]

PM,

Nice post.

I do admit that I did not read the blind level being 50-100. I read four handed in a 200 SNG and assumed that we are 200/400 and up blinds. I still think this is not a bad spot to get your money in, but I do think that it is closer given the blinds.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3rd place is a profit of $185 1st is a profit of 785 - that is is a 4.24x


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a serious mistake. The money you paid for this is already gone. If you look at things this way, I'm not sure you should play 215$, if you do play them.

1st place is profit of 1000$, and 3rd place is profit of 400$. 1st is exactly 2.5 times 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cant be positive you will place by folding, and you also need to consider the long term affect on your ROI by not playing for first, and folding hands that are most likely the favorite.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
You cant be positive you will place by folding

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything about being positive? The only question is what move has higher $EV, considering every aspect in the situation.

[ QUOTE ]
and you also need to consider the long term affect on your ROI by not playing for first

[/ QUOTE ]

"Playing for first" could be an empty mantra, if you simply take a -$EV path. You are playing to maximize your profit, be it taking 1st, 2nd, or simply sneaking into the money, in certain situations.

This specific hand, is NOT a situation where your decision is about "playing for first". It is obviously about how to win as much chips you can, WITHOUT taking a bigger-than-necessary risk - while a very short stack is about to bust, and a huge, very loose, stack, is still to act behind you. PLUS - the blinds you are trying to win are not that big yet.

[ QUOTE ]
and folding hands that are most likely the favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your only consideration in SNG (or any tournament for that matter), is about not folding hands that are most likely the favorite (notice that AK here wont be a really big favorite most of the times, if at all - when called) - you should, IMO, think again about how you play. Talking simply about "favorite" is not enough, since by that logic you will want to play about half the hands in HE, which are all "favorite" against a random hand, for that matter.

Please read my long reaply to Jason, and his answer. I think this is a very close decision, and claiming that pushing is by far the better move - looks wrong to me.

[pzhon]

The independent chip model is not perfect, and may be worse than normal here, but I think it is a good start and other models agree with the conclusions if not the exact numbers.

If you trap the BB and double up, the chip counts are 3250, 5125, 1350, and 275. With 3250, the independent chip model says your probabilities for each of the places are 32.5%, 40.2%, 23.8%, and 3.5%. The average value is $661.31.

If you fold, let's assume that the BB gets the blinds. The chip counts are 1600, 6775, 1350, and 275. Your probabilities for each of the places are 16%, 36.6%, 27.6%, and 9.9%. The average value is $529.57.

I'll assume that you are a 2:1 favorite, on average. If you are a 2:1 favorite to get $661.31 rather than $0, your average prize is $440.87. I'm sorry, but by this model it looks like you blundered away about $90 of equity!

This doesn't make the BB's strategy right. The BB is close to risk-neutral, and loses about $30 of equity by setting you in rather than picking up the blinds. After you raise, the BB doesn't have the option to pick up the blinds, so the BB's error is smaller than $30. You both lose. The beneficiaries are the smaller stacks. The smallest stack gains $95 on average, and the second smallest stack gains about $25.

The BB's threat makes it questionable to get your chips in with AA. If you have AA and move in here, you may prefer not to get called by the BB. When there is a very small stack and a big jump in prize money, normal play is distorted tremendously.

I think the correct play here is to fold and hope the SB has a hand and gets knocked out by the bully, but otherwise wait to see if the short stack doubles up or bubbles out. Either possibility would allow you to play more hands. Here, I believe folding is not just right, but right by a lot.

If you think about the prizes in the usual way, it may appear to be a close decision. After all, the first place prize is a lot larger than 3rd, right? I think this is the wrong way to look at it. An alternative is to imagine that $400 is given to each player when you are down to 3 players, then $200 is given to each player when you are down to 2, then $400 is given to the winner. The bulk of the prize money, 60%, is given as an award for making it into the top 3. 20% rewards those who finish in the top 2. 20% rewards you for winning. You could think of this as 3 simultaneous tournaments, and getting the chips in against the BB is a horrible play in the biggest tournament that pays the top 3 equally.

[gergery]

But the money for 3rd is sooo much better than the money for 4th.

And the percentage chance of getting 1st is small while the percentage chance of getting 3rd is very high.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
An alternative is to imagine that $400 is given to each player when you are down to 3 players, then $200 is given to each player when you are down to 2, then $400 is given to the winner. The bulk of the prize money, 60%, is given as an award for making it into the top 3. 20% rewards those who finish in the top 2. 20% rewards you for winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the with idea that most of your equity comes from making it to 3rd, then another big bump when you get 1st, but you screwed up the math in your 2nd sentence.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
An alternative is to imagine that $400 is given to each player when you are down to 3 players, then $200 is given to each player when you are down to 2, then $400 is given to the winner. The bulk of the prize money, 60%, is given as an award for making it into the top 3. 20% rewards those who finish in the top 2. 20% rewards you for winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the with idea that most of your equity comes from making it to 3rd, then another big bump when you get 1st, but you screwed up the math in your 2nd sentence.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've reviewed it and I don't see an error. Could you be more explicit about what you think is wrong?

I assumed the prize pool is $2000, with prizes of $1000, $600, and $400. My suggestion was to view the tournament as the juxtaposition of three subtournaments, paying

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif $400-$400-$400
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif $200-$200-$0
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif $400-$0-$0.

The prize pools of the subtournaments are $1200=60%, $400=20%, and $400=20% of the $2000=100% total.

[Prickly Pete]

pzhon,

Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff. I'm interested in the 'independent chip model'. Is this a program or is it a formula for calculating average values? If it's a formula, would you mind sharing?

[Jason Strasser]

Phzon,

Great stuff. I two questions:

1) Are you accounting for blind sizes in this calculation?

2) Are you accounting for the times the BB will refuse his 1:2 shot at taking out the hero?

What if he only calls 30-40% of the time when he'll be a 2:1 dog? And what if the blinds are higher? What conditions have to be right for this raise to be +EV, versus folding?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

1) Are you accounting for blind sizes in this calculation?


[/ QUOTE ]

I accounted for the blinds on this hand, e.g., I assumed the small blind will post and fold, dropping to 1350 from 1400. More accurate models might include position and the sizes of future blinds, but I think other effects are more important. In particular, how long will the BB keep bullying the table? The model assumes the BB will stop after this hand, but that's not right. Whether this increases or decreases the value of folding or raising is unclear to me.

The conclusion that it is right to fold (by $90) is so strong that small changes to the model will not reverse it. It would take a radically different model of the final table dynamics to overturn it. While the absolute equities may be wrong by more than $100, I believe the estimate of the equity difference between folding and raising is accurate. If (folding,raising) is not worth (530,440), but (650,550), folding is still right.

[ QUOTE ]
2) Are you accounting for the times the BB will refuse his 1:2 shot at taking out the hero?

What if he only calls 30-40% of the time when he'll be a 2:1 dog? And what if the blinds are higher? What conditions have to be right for this raise to be +EV, versus folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

The assumption of the original poster was that the BB had a 99% chance to reraise all-in, but would not necessarily call an all-in. There are 3 reasonable courses of action:

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Fold, equity $530.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Limp or raise a normal amount, equity $440.
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Move in. If called, equity $440. If not called, equity $545.

By pushing in, you hope to gain $15 over folding, but you risk $90. It has to be 6:1 against getting called for you to move in. A 30% chance of a call appears to be too much.

To make it right to move in, the blinds would have to be much larger (with a 30% chance to get called), or the small stack would have to be much larger, or you need to have a lower chance to get called.

[Jason Strasser]

Thanks.

I sweat your math skills.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff. I'm interested in the 'independent chip model'. Is this a program or is it a formula for calculating average values? If it's a formula, would you mind sharing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are welcome.

I believe that what I've been calling the independent chip model is written up in TPFAP; it has been discovered independently by a few people. (I'll get around to ordering TPFAP soon.) It is among the models discussed on this thread (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=369811& Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=tournament%20finish&Searc hpage=1&Limit=25&Main=369811&Search=true&where=bod ysub&Name=134&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&o lderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post369811).

One way of looking at it is to determine the winner of the tournament first, assuming that the probability of winning is proportional to the chip counts. Then assume that there is a separate tournament among the remaining players (whose chip counts are unchanged) to determine who gets second place, then another tournament among the losers to determine who gets third, etc. If the chip counts are (5,10,20), then the player with 5 has two ways of placing second: behind the player with 10 and behind the player with 20. The probabilities of each are supposed to be (10/35)(5/25) and (20/35)(5/15). 10/35 is the chance the player with 10 chips wins with a total chip pool of 35, and after those 10 chips are removed, 5/25 is the chance the player with 5 chips beats the player with 20.

Here is the Mathematica function I created for this thread. Unfortunately, I didn't make it with the idea it would be readable. places[chipcountvector,index] gives the vector of probabilities of places for the player in position index.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
places[chipc_, i_] :=
If[Length[chipc] == 1, {1},
Table[If[j == Length[chipc],
chipc[[i]]/Sum[chipc[[k]], {k, Length[chipc]}],
0],
{j, Length[chipc]}]
+
Sum[If[t == i,
Table[0, {s, Length[chipc]}],
Append[places[Delete[chipc, t],If[t&lt;i,i-1,i]]
*chipc[[t]]/Sum[chipc[[k]],
{k,Length[chipc]}],
0]],
{t, Length[chipc]}]
]
</pre><hr />

Example: places[{3,2,1},1]
{3/20,7/20,1/2}

1/2 chance that the player with 3 chips wins.
7/20 chance that the player with 3 chips is 2nd.
3/20 chance that the player with 3 chips is 3rd.

This function computes the probability vectors recursively. It is ugly even to me, but it worked on the second try.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
More accurate models might include position and the sizes of future blinds, but I think other effects are more important. In particular, how long will the BB keep bullying the table? The model assumes the BB will stop after this hand, but that's not right. Whether this increases or decreases the value of folding or raising is unclear to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this aspect of the problem too. It seems to me that hero's position is favorable over the other medium stack's (OMS) position, since OMS is sitting to the immidiate right of big stack (i.e, playing before him). Playing "after" an aggressive big stack is favorable, IMO.


If this is correct, it will contribute to the $EV of folding - that's because hero's chips "worth more" than OMS's chips, and there's less reason to gamble.

[ZeeJustin]

I raise this and call an all-in. I think pushing is far better than folding. Limping seems to be the worst scenario, since he could check and bet any flop which is a disaster for you.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
3rd place is a profit of $185 1st is a profit of 785 - that is is a 4.24x


[/ QUOTE ]
Net gain (4.24x) is clearly a more relevant number than gross gain (2.5x)

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Here is the Mathematica function I created for this thread. Unfortunately, I didn't make it with the idea it would be readable. places[chipcountvector,index] gives the vector of probabilities of places for the player in position index.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
places[chipc_, i_] :=
If[Length[chipc] == 1, {1},
Table[If[j == Length[chipc],
chipc[[i]]/Sum[chipc[[k]], {k, Length[chipc]}],
0],
{j, Length[chipc]}]
+
Sum[If[t == i,
Table[0, {s, Length[chipc]}],
Append[places[Delete[chipc, t],If[t&lt;i,i-1,i]]
*chipc[[t]]/Sum[chipc[[k]],
{k,Length[chipc]}],
0]],
{t, Length[chipc]}]
]
</pre><hr />

Example: places[{3,2,1},1]
{3/20,7/20,1/2}

1/2 chance that the player with 3 chips wins.
7/20 chance that the player with 3 chips is 2nd.
3/20 chance that the player with 3 chips is 3rd.

This function computes the probability vectors recursively. It is ugly even to me, but it worked on the second try.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mathematica? Oi. Anyone have a C function for this? Or any sane language?

eastbay

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3rd place is a profit of $185 1st is a profit of 785 - that is is a 4.24x


[/ QUOTE ] Net gain (4.24x) is clearly a more relevant number than gross gain (2.5x)

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement doesn't make sense.

You can very well see 3rd as a profit of $185, and 1st as profit of $785, but then you must see any out-of-money finish as -$215 profit. So still, the jump from out-of-money to 3rd is +$400, while the jump from out-of-money to 1st is +$1000. Therefore, the jump from out-of-money to 1st is 2.5 times the jump to 3rd.

I will be very glad if you can show any meaningful $EV perspective for which 1st is 4.24x 3rd.

BTW

Your "f**k 3rd" attitude (or more accurately: f**k 2nd), is clearly much more relevant once in the money, since the jump from 3rd to 1st (+$600) is 3 times the jump from 3rd to 2nd (+$200).

However, When you are still out of the money, taking risks for all your chips with a small-medium stack, when a mini-stack is close to busting, your hand is not a huge favorite AND the blinds are not high enough to justify the CEV - this can be very well a negative $EV move, as was shown by other posters here.

[Nepa]

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There is no gaurantee that the short stack will go out - what do you do if he triples up? I have seen that happen over and over again.


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I think you deal with that when and if it happens. If you move all-in here and get called by the big stack and lose the short stack is jumping up and down. The most profitible play would be to fold here and wait for a better situation. You still have plenty of time to win the tournament. Folding isn't playing for 3rd it is playing smart.